Hmmm, not happy Saint?

Tbh I'd rather wait a wee bit longer before we get any sustained warm and sunny spells. I'm still mindful of 2007, 2011 and 2012 when we had almost summer-like conditions at times in March or April or both, and then paid for that big time in the summer. What the models are showing seems to be pretty much standard early spring weather for this country.

It may be dry to get things done in the garden but nowhere near warm enough to sit outside and most likely wont be until early May at the earliest.

Mary

Anyway, disappointing lack of convection on offer

Exactly

And, more importantly, I went for a cool March in the CET comp. MO has teased me for the past couple of weeks, switching between cold and mildish. Looks like I'm going to take a big hit this month

Exactly David. I don't think I'll ever forget those summers.

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Cool Second Half Of March And Into April;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

#jmafriday

Looking at the charts for next Friday looking very good with nationwide HP for sun partial eclipse and first car boot sales for 2015 to open next Sunday 22nd March.  HP also on that day providing it doesn't change.  Temps wise nothing out of ordinary and kept in the safe side than seeing low 20's this month and follow by poor summer.

Thank you for the video Gavin.

Thermals will be worn out by May...

It appears GFS has finally backed down from it's idea of continuing the easterly influence through much of next week, fading it out on Wednesday as a milder SW flow takes over.

It actually manages to warm up a day sooner than that, as a weak low SW of the UK brings some warmer air up through NW Europe and this cuts off the colder feed that we have to put up with through the preceding few days.

Depending on to what extent relatively warm air from the SW is thrown into the ridge by the Atlantic storms, it could start to feel very much like spring Wed-Thu next week, with mid-teens maximums where the cloud breaks.

Then, a week from now, comes the next area of disagreement to think about. It boils down to how close a trough passes to the NE of the UK as it moves away from Iceland.

For the second operational run in a row, we have ECM bringing that close enough to suppress the ridge from the Azores back towards its origin, lowering temperatures in a chilly NW to N flow across eastern parts in particular.

GFS takes the low further east, to the far side of Scandinavia in fact, which allows the ridge to build right across the UK, conditions settled and still hitting the mid-teens widely by day.

This feature has trended further east since it was first picked up on by ECM, which leaves me with a blend of GFS and ECM in mind... potentially pretty decent for western parts at least, depending on how much cloud is entrained into the flow.

Plenty of time for adjustments of course, which could be large enough to steer us along a whole new route for all I know- that's just how it is with model output at a week's range and beyond 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY MARCH 14TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold but slack East to NE flow will affect all areas with a ridge over Scotland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry weather with some sunshine and just occasional rain especially at first in the South and in the North later. Temperatures will be close to average or a little below overall.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the the main thrust of the flow moving North across the Atlantic, Iceland and the Norwegian Sea. Meanwhile a Southern arm over North Africa and towards Eastern Europe around a cut off Spanish Low continues for a time before a strong Northern arm develops across the UK later, at least for a time in the second week.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational run today shows a lot of High pressure based weather, firstly over Europe giving the UK a spell of cold East winds and later over the UK with more sunshine, lighter winds and night frosts most likely at that time. It then shows a much more mobile, windy and unsettled period developing in the second week under active Atlantic Low pressure with strong winds and rain or showers at times in typical March conditions later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is similar in sequence of events through the next week or so but the unsettled Westerly period shown by the operational is a colder NW'ly from the Control Run leading to cold and windy weather with wintry showers for a time at the start of the second week before High pressure makes a comeback at the end of the period in cold air with bright and pleasant enough days but with sharp Spring night frosts.

THE GFS CLUSTERS  The GFS Clusters show a predominance of Low pressure expected to lie close to the UK in two weeks times with variabtions of cloudy, wind and rain or showers under Low pressure near to, just to the NE or West between 65% of the pack. The remaining 35% show High pressure lying across the UK with fine and settled conditions

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows the ridge from the East slowly being replaced by our own UK High pressure through the week with rather brigter skies by day and frost by night. By the end of the working week this looks like being edged slowly West as pressure falls towards Scandinavia.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex area of High pressure stretching a ridge West over the UK but complicated by weak troughs moving West or NW in the flow before a UK based High pressure begins to simplify the fine weather pattern by midweek or soon after.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows High pressure in control over the UK in the shape of a ridge from the East at first or a High centred across the UK later in the coming week. There is a chilly NE or East feed across the South for much of the cold adding to a chill feel here before sunnier conditions across the North later this week raise temperatures by day somewhat. Things are shown to become more delicately poised between slack winds and slightly more unsettled conditions by the end of the 10 day period covered by the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure becoming dominant and centred across the UK later this week and maintained until the end of the run with the current chilly East flow becoming replaced by less cold and sunnier air for many but with a frost risk at night.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows a complex and slowly changing High pressure based pattern over the next week to 10 days. There are threats of even colder air than we have currently making inroads into the SE of the UK from the NE as the Euro High is replaced by a UK based one just to the NW but on this run it fails to sustain it narrowly as the High collapses SE and a slow change to less cold Westerly winds look likely towards the end of the 10 days, first in the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart this morning continues it's drift to a more changeable Atlantic based weather pattern by Day 10 with aJet Stream South of the UK, Low pressure close to the North and a Westerly flow across the UK no doubt with rain at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The collapse of the European High next week is well supported with the evolutions thereafter gradually showing more of a tendeny for Atlantic Westerly winds and rain at times to develop slowly.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.8 pts followed by UKM at 97.3 pts and GFS at 96.7. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.2 pts over UKMO at 89.2 pts and GFS at 87.9. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.8 pts over GFS's 62.7 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 51.0 pts over GFS at 46.2.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The mist is slowly clearing between the model outputs this morning as there looks like a cessation in the chilly East or NE from all but the Southernmost part of the UK by midweek as a new UK based High pressure is looking highly likely by then. This should clean up the European haze into clearer skies with some sunshine but with frosts at night where skies clear sufficiently. Then as we look further out still there are varying scenarios in the way that High pressure declines over the UK with the majority edging towards a more Atlantic influence taking hold, probably from the North or NW with much more likelihood of bands of rain and showers beginning to turn up across the UK from pressure having fallen pressure from the North. The extent and longevity of this change is difficult to call at this range with the longest term output indicating that there is a chance that High pressure may return late on but too speculative to call a defintive 'yes' at this range. So all in all a fairly settled and benign weather pattern looks likely over the next 10 days or so with light winds gradually swiching to a less cold quarter with time and rather more sunshine coming into play too once our UK based high develops. A chance then of more unsettled and changeable conditions with average temperatures is then conceivable late in the period but all in all nothing too dramatic and concering weatherwise across the UK in the next two weeks with temperatures finishing up having been near or slightly below average overall.  

Issued at 09:00 Saturday March 14th 2015

ECM 00z looking very chilly with some wintry/snow showers in the east should it verify.

Little support from GFS fww. Looking at their ensemble set it seems to have backed away somewhat from the colder options.

The GFS and UKMO for late next week and into the weekend has improved over the past 24 hours ago if it's settled conditions you're looking far, with the former even offering some decent maximums quite widely across England and Wales (mid-teens).

This is thanks to a shortwave passing north of the UK no longer being shown to interact with the Scandi trough and develop into a notable low... in fact it's almost invisible on the UKMO chart above - that 1020mb circle is what remains of it.

Will ECM follow suit or continue to make more of the feature? GEM certainly does... and is a sight for sore eyes!

At Wembley next Sunday and the GFS is pretty awesome. 

What the fudge does ECM think its doing threatening a snowstorm on 24th March 

It just refuses to let go of the idea of the shortwave low interacting with the trough over Scandinavia to develop into a significant feature, which then opens the gate for Atlantic lows to track W to E or - in the case of this particular op run - NW to SE with unpleasant results.

I know settling snow is still possible even down here but... no thanks.

I'd rather have this, on offer from the GFS 12z op:

Excellent stuff, probably some 15*C warmer than the ECM solution for that date 

With UKMO offering some sort of halfway house between the two extremes out to day 6, that may be the safest bet, as usual - high pressure having a strong influence but temperatures relying on decent solar input to reach anything better than average values by day. Nights could be rather chilly with a risk of frost where skies are clear.

There would only be temporary effects I think. A drop in temperature of a couple of degrees or so and the dissapation of any convective cloud.

Aye.  The once in a millennium cooling of the atmosphere by a few degrees for a couple of minutes in that specific part of the GIN sea on Friday could have  ramifications via the "butterfly effect".

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY MARCH 15TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold but slack East to NE flow will affect all areas with a ridge over Scotland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry weather with some sunshine and just occasional rain especially at first in the South and in the North later. Temperatures will be close to average or a little below overall.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow forced North over the Atlantic and Iceland due to a High pressure block over Europe. This pattern is maintained for some time before the general thrust of the flow will change axis to a West to East motion across the UK through Week 2 as High pressure collapses

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational run today shows another week of weather across the UK with a strong anticyclonic influence, firstly from a ridge from the East and later by High pressure near or over the UK. Rather cloudy but dry conditions at first should give way to brighter conditions with a risk of night frost as the week progresses and the South should lose the chill ENE wind. Through Week 2 the trend is for Low pressure from the North to gradually take over with wind and rain at times in more changeable weather in more of an Atlantic westerly flow as a result.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is very similar in trend to the operational this morning with a change to more changeable weather from about a week from now. Having said that the influence of any changeable weather in the South will be muted as High pressure remains close by to the South with the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall always towards the North.
 
THE GFS CLUSTERS Apart from 5% of the GFS clusters this morning indicate a return to strong Westerly winds and rain at times for the UK two weeks from now. The 5% hold High pressure near the SE pf the UK with fine weather.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows High pressure to the East receding to new High pressure across the UK midweek with fine and dry weather with more sunshine. This recedes slowly West to allow a chilly Northerly into Eastern Britain come next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure well in control of the UK weather this coming week with variable cloud cover, some sunshine especially later with some night frosts in the North as the High pressure ridge to the East transfers to a UK based one over the NW from midweek.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows High pressure largely in control over the UK in the shape of a ridge from the East at first and then from the West as new High pressure develops there later in the week. The only caveats to this are the NE breeze early in the week could reemerge for a time later in the week over the South and later the far North could see a stronger Westerly flow develop with some rain as the ridge slips further South across England.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM follows the same format with High pressure developing to the West of the UK by soon after midweek replacing the chill NE flow over the South with an equally chilly Northerly over the East while most parts stay largely dry and increasingly brighter by day but with frost risk at night.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows a similar sequence to NAVGEM and UKMO this week with High pressure relocating just to the West of the UK with various troughs sinking South over NW Europe late in the week and sending cold polar winds down over the West of Europe with the fragments of this affecting the East late in the week and more generally on the second pulse at the start of Week 2 when wintry showers could occur for a time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The 10 Day Mean Chart shows a greater chance of Westerly winds over the UK with High pressure to the SW and Low pressure to the NW with a changeable pattern of weather likely over the UK in average temperatures overall.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The collapse of the European High next week is well supported with the evolutions thereafter gradually showing more of a tendeny for Atlantic Westerly winds and rain at times to develop slowly especially in the North.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.8 pts followed by UKM at 97.3 pts and GFS at 96.6. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.2 pts over UKMO at 88.9 pts and GFS at 87.7. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 66.8 pts over GFS's 61.3 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 50.4 pts over GFS at 45.6.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS Changes in the weather synoptics over the coming few weeks will be relatively small but subtle with the overlying trend being for a lot of dry and fine weather for at least the first two thirds of the two week period. The surface conditions will all depend on location across the UK in relation to where High pressure bringing the fine weather sits. The far South and SE could well be plagued by a cold drift of wind from the NE at times especially early in the week while the North will see much lighter winds as well as more sunshine and the risk of night frosts. This risk increases somewhat later in the week as cleaner air looks like arriving for most as High pressure transfers close to the NW of Britain. Thereafter things gradually become less clear as most output suggests the desire to slip High pressure away West or South meaning Low pressure from the North could slip SE or East to the North and NE of Britain gradually increasing the risk of rain, wind and wintry showers to these parts later but from this morning's output it looks like any change along these lines may be well muted over the South for longer. In general though some very useable early Spring weather looks likely this week and possibly some of next too in the South where chasing cloud amounts will be the main feature day to day. The North too will share in a lot of dry weather too with some sunshine before the risk of rain from the North increases in week 2. What I can say with reasonable confidence though there will be no particularly unseasonably cold or mild conditions to deal with as temperatures through the period look like ranging from just above to just below average though frosts at night are more of a certainty for all if skies clear overnight. Rainfall through the two weeks looks like being below average generally and probably well below average across many parts of the South and SW.  

Issued at 08:00 Sunday March 15th 2015

Maybe. Then again, the new show about making fools of people who are hypnotised is entertainment and Nigel Farage will be the next Prime Minister

GFS is a bit slower with the shortwave passing N of the UK days 4-5, which means it doesn't clear from Scandinavia soon enough to allow that strong ridge NE from the UK that features on the 12z ECM, UKMO and GEM runs.

Increasingly I am left hoping that it's little more than a glancing blow for the SE. If only the pattern was 500 miles further east from midweek onward... we'd be basking in some very decent temperatures! We really do tread some fine margins on these islands.

While the mid-term threat is from the east, the longer-range threat is from the west, as there is a strong signal for the Atlantic jet to be enhanced, bringing a more changeable regime, maybe unsettled in the north (which for future reference I consider to be a risk of rain present on consecutive days, whereas changeable is a mix of wet and dry days).

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY MARCH 16TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold but slack East to NE flow will continue to affect all areas weakening tomorrow with a ridge over Scotland slipping slowly South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry weather with some sunshine and just occasional rain moving down from the North later. Temperatures will be close to average or a little below overall.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow well away to the West and North of the UK currently. It then steers South close to Western Britain as UK High pressure builds late in the week. Thereafter the general theme is for the flow to strengthen across the Atlantic and surge East across the UK in week 2 with ony a slow relaxation North late on.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational run doesn't differ much from yesterday with the continued theme of this week being governed by High pressure across the UK from midweek. With time this is then shown to recede South and SW opening the door to Atlantic Westerly winds and lower pressure with rain at times extending to all areas on occasion in temperatures close to average

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run shows a very similar scenario through the period with the same drift towards more unsettled and windy weather in Westerly winds and rain at times next week.
 
THE GFS CLUSTERS 90% of the GFS clusters show Westerly winds two weeks from now with variations in degree of extent and influence from Low pressure likely to lie close to the North of the UK. Only 10% of the pack indicate High pressure close enough to the South to cut off the influence the Westerly winds have and restricting then to the North only.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows High pressure close to the UK from midweek. A weak trough is pulled South in the flow setting up another day or so of chilly NE winds across the South before the High pressure in the NW slips South across the South with weak Atlantic troughs affecting the North next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure well in control of the UK weather this coming week with variable cloud cover, some sunshine especially midweek before the later charts show more influence from Atlantic troughs affecting the North by the start of next weekend as the High recedes to the SW.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows quite a chilly feel to it as our current rather stagnant pattern which lasts much of this week turns more and more into a rather cold pattern under Northerly winds and wintry showers with sharp night frosts next week as High pressure sits in cold air by then just to the West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too keeps a cold feel about it as a High pressure ridge is maintained across the UK in one shape or another. The positioning and influence of that is determined by the shuffling of weather systems over Europe with spells of chilly and cold NE winds enhanced at times especially in the South with some wintry showers possible later in the East and SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows a High pressure ridge later in the week across the UK with fine and bright conditions but still with a chill NE wind across the South enhanced again for a time. As we move through next weekend and the new week the trend is for the Atlantic Westerly winds to return are shown with rain at times especially in the North at first but perhaps more generally by the end of the 10 day period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN There is strong support now from the ECM model members that in 10 days times we will lie under a westerly feed of air between Low pressure South of Iceland and High pressure near the Azores with a typical early Spring changeable weather pattern for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The collapse of the European High next week is still well supported with the evolutions thereafter maintaining a tendency for Atlantic Westerly winds and rain at times to develop slowly next week especially in the North.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.8 pts followed by UKM at 97.3 pts and GFS at 96.6. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.2 pts over UKMO at 88.6 pts and GFS at 87.4. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 66.6 pts over GFS's 60.6 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 49.6 pts over GFS at 45.7.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS Not much new to talk about this morning from the outputs that hasn't been covered by me in previous reports as the pattern seems locked in the quiet High pressure based pattern this week with sometimes leaden skies and drizzly rain mixed with brighter and in places sunnier, milder weather with some sunshine especially midweek. Then the slow trend towards more unsettled and Atlantic based weather next week develops. There are of course differences within the models on how the more unsettled pattern evolves with the majority going for a straight Westerly delivering rain and showers in a typical March setup while a slightly fewer number show more of a NW or even Northerly airflow develop later with attendant wintry showers and frosts at night. The general theme though from the Euro's is that the former pattern will be more likely with some strong Westerly gales at times in the North to accompany the rain from depressions South of Iceland. It may also be that the South will see the least effects from this pattern though it looks likely that even here will see some rain next week. All in all though a lot of fine weather still to come before things turn more traditionally unsettled. Having said that there is nothing dramatic shown again this morning and given the time of year conditions won't be terribly exciting weather wise with Spring proper (i.e sunny and warm) still a little way off beyond the parameters of the current output.  

Issued at 08:00 Monday March 16th 2015

Hi all

Here's today's video update;

Atlantic Winds Returning For End Of March?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Quite chilly and unsettled next week?