Thanks for the interesting video Gavin....

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY MARCH 31ST 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A strong WNW flow will blow across the UK today before weakening slowly tonight ahead of a warm front approaching from the SW tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE The changeable and sometimes windy spell will be replaced by drier and more settled conditions from the Easter weekend.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast indiciates the current West to East flow across the UK will turn more NW to SE or even North to South as the flow buckles north over the Eastern North Atlantic. thereafter there is some indication that the flow will rejuvenate to the South of the UK but there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding where the flow will lie the further out into the outlook we go this morning.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows a strong Westerly flow across the UK through the next 24 hours or so before the winds decrease as High pressure edges closer from the SW. However, a further trough moves across from the West on Thursday with the decay of that indicating a change to High pressure based weather from then on. In this run after a few days of the High based very near or over the UK the High looks like migrating to somewhere North and NE of the UK with some unsettled and cold weather encroaching across the Southlooking possible from this run later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run shows similar easing in the Westerly flow through the rest of this week as the next trough on Thursday looks like the last for the time being before High pressure develops across the UK over the second half of the Easter Weekend. thereafter the run indicates High pressure very much in control of the weather over the UK through the second half of the run with fine and dry weather with sunny spells but temperatures probably little better than average with some frosts at night.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters show little indication of certainty as to where we will lie synoptically two weeks from today with an equal share of several evolutions ranging from a chilly showery Northerly or a more quiet and anticyclonic based pattern with the centre of High in one of several different options.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a stalling cold front crossing slowly East on Thursday as pressure builds across the UK from Scandinavia over the start of the Easter weekend. Rain on Thursday and perhaps Good Friday looks like dying out leaving the UK rather chilly and cloudy but dry by Easter Sunday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the course of the raw data with the troughs of Low pressure moving into the UK from the west towards Easter weakening and decaying as High pressure builds through them over the Easter weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today becomes very High pressure driven over the UK from Easter with the current unsettled, windy and changeable weather being replaced by fine and dry weather with slowly increasing amounts of sunshine and probably temperatures too as we move through next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM is quite tentative in it's build of High pressure across the UK, taking until early next week to completely eliminate the risk of a few showers from the South of the UK with the close of the run joining forces with the other models in settling the weather down with sunny spells developing.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM continues to show improvements taking shape at the weekend as the Atlantic Jet flow and bandwagon weakens. High pressure is shown to build through the UK by Easter Sunday with the start of next week then largely dry with variable cloud cover but unspectacular temperatures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows High pressure well in control of the UK weather in 10 days with a centre close to or over the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show a trend towards High pressure based conditions from around Easter lasting through most if not all of Week 2.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.8 pts followed by UKM at 97.4 pts and GFS at 96.7. At 5 days ECM continues to lead the field at 91.2 pts over UKMO at 90.6 pts and GFS at 88.3. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 68.5 pts over GFS's 63.6 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 48.9 pts over GFS at 46.6.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

MY THOUGHTS The pattern shown within all the models this morning closely resemble the pattern shown by yesterdays output with just small but subtle differences in positioning of High pressure determining small scale weather differences in any one place across the UK from early next week. The basic pattern is that the current strong and blustery West or NW winds die away by the middle of the Easter holiday along with the attendant rain and showers. High pressure then looks like forming over the top of the UK by the end of Easter but with a lot of residual cloud left across the UK from decayed troughs there may not be much sunshine and temperatures are likely to be suppressed as a result. Then next week we have to try to pin down where the High pressure area sits or migrates too with a whole array of options shown this morning which could have subtle differences to the way things feel at the surface and confidence on any one option occurring is unusually low this morning. A fair amount of options most notably from GFS shows it migrating North which is not good as it could set up a cold feed from Europe and allow fronts to encroach from the SW- a mouth watering pattern for snow lovers in a mid Winter month but pretty unwelcome in April from the point of view of cold rain and temperatures becoming possible. However, other output shows the High slipping South, West or just revolving around the vicinity of the UK with much more benign conditions if the latter happens with increasing amounts of sunshine and moderate warmth but frosts by night. Wherever the High ends up the vast majority of output is stating that we can look forward to a cessation of the current strong winds and spells of rain and showers to a much more useable weather pattern in which we may not be breaking any records temperatures wise but be able to pursue outside activities in the knowledge that conditions are unlikely to be rained off.

Issued at 08:00 Tuesday March 31st 2015

Thank you for spring winter output.. Got to take it as it comes./..

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY APRIL 1ST 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A chilly NW flow will weaken further today as a wave feature moves SE over SW Britain later today and followed by a warm front moving NE over the same areas tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming settled and dry with some sunshine and average temperatures but with a risk of occasional night frosts.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast indiciates the current West to East flow across the UK is weakening and returning to a more northerly latitude near iceland as pressure builds across the UK this weekend. Later in the period the flow looks like splitting with the most energy fuelling the southern arm near Spain and Portugal as pressure builds to the North and NE of the UK.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows the current unsettled, windy and changeable period of weather coming to an end over Easter as High pressure is shown to build strongly across the UK. Whilst mostly a cloudy High to begin with brighter conditions will develop with time and temperatures should recover to average in light winds but with the risk of night frosts. This pattern then persists through Week 2 with all eyes to the East on how colder incursions over there  threaten the South of the UK in the generally dry and settled pattern right out to the end of week 2.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run also shows only small variations on the theme set out by the operational with fine and settled weather looking most likely in the High pressure based outlook, the centre gradually transposing North towards the latter stages and perhaps allowing something a little more unsettled to creep towards the SW of Britain late in the period.

THE GFS CLUSTERS  The GFS clusters today for two weeks time show a 50% group indicating that High pressure is likely to lie across the UK at that time. The other 50% are made up of unclear positions mostly revolving around High pressure much further to the South or SW and Atlantic fronts and depressions to the West and North having a more direct influence across the UK..

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows pressure building across the UK over Easter with the centre then settling just to the SW of Britain early next week with a rather cloudy NW flow likely to establish across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show rising pressure across the UK in the coming 4 days or so not before a complex system of troughs moving East and then decaying in situ leave a residue amount of cloud and mistiness over the UK for much of the weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today looks a lot like UKMO in the 4-6 day range as the High over the UK lies to the SW in a NW flow before stretching it's influence further and further North later next week cutting off the rather cloudy NW'ly but maintaining dry weather for all in a chilly Easterly flow across the South later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM has High pressure developing further North much earlier placing the South of the UK in a very chilly East flow next week with the risk of showers in the SE looking possible while all other stay fine and dry but not overly warm with frosty nights..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM is much more friendly in the positioning of the HIgh in that it wards off any Easterly input by placing the High over the UK before drifting it slowly East to give rise to a more SSE feed later. There is an equal amount of dry weather shown as with the other models but hopefully temperatures would be rather higher.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows High pressure well in control of the UK weather in 10 days with a centre close to or over the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show a trend towards High pressure based conditions from around Easter lasting through most if not all of Week 2. 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.8 pts followed by UKM at 97.5 pts and GFS at 96.7. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.2 pts over UKMO at 90.6 pts and GFS at 88.1. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 68.4 pts over GFS's 64.5 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 48.5 pts over GFS at 46.6.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The main talking point between the models is the continuing undecisiveness in where High pressure will lie then drift once formed over the Easter weekend. It looks almost certain that High pressure will be the driving force of the UK weather over the coming two weeks with certainty that it will form over the UK over Easter. Then it looks far less certain where it will move after that which dependant on where it eventually sits becomes instrumental as to what type of High pressure based weather occurs in any one region or place. There is a bias towards moving High pressure further North later which introduces at least a risk of chilly Easterly winds affecting the South at times later continuing to temper temperatures. GFS, GEM and NAVGEM all like this placement this morning although the GFS Clusters aren't particularly supportive of this scenario. ECM is much kinder with it's positioning of the High just to the East of the UK in 10 days which could be more supportive of better temperatures if nothing else. So what can we expect weatherwise from all this over the next few weeks. Well the main thing is that there will be very little rain after the next 48 hours or so anywhere with dry weather being the most guaranteed parameter. However, sunshine amounts and temperatures are much more problemmatical as in the first stages taking us through Easter and the start of next week a lot of cloud could be present for many and any feed from Europe later could also prolong this factor as well as draw even chillier air West over us but if the High drifts to the East and allows a more Southerly or SE drift such as ECM suggests then things could soon become warmer and more Springlike. So in a nutshell this morning we can look forward to dry and settled weather for a week or two but with no early heatwave as it stands at the moment. It looks like we will be chasing holes in the cloud for some Spring warmth at times though but in all honesty the outlook could look far worse.   

Issued at 08:00 Wednesday April 1st 2015

Looks like a settled spell of weather from late weekend onwards and into next week with average temps to, quite warm at time with temps into the teens.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY APRIL 2ND 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A slow moving front over SW Britain will move slowly NE later today followed by a cold front moving in from the West tonight with the whole frontal zone sliding SE into NW Europe tomorrow with the UK then lying in a chilly Northerly flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming settled and dry with some sunshine and average temperatures but with a risk of occasional night frosts.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast indicates the flow ridging over the UK and then turning South down over the North Sea and NW Europe soon on the Northern and Eastern flank of High pressure positioning. It maintains this theme for some considerable time before in the far reaches a more direct flow across the UK from the Atlantic looks possible as lower pressure develops to the NW.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure building to the West over the next 48 hours before settling across the UK late in the Easter weekend and through much of next week. The weather would become dry for all with increasing amounts of brightnss and while nevery overly warm pleasant Spring conditions seem likely with the risk of some frost by night. then in the second week the model drifts the High away to the East with a slow ingress of Atlantic fronts and SW winds likely by two weeks time with the return of more changeable conditions and occasional rain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run also shows High pressure likely to be based over the UK for much of next week with the same fine and bright weather shown by the operational. However, the High is eroded from the NW late next week and gradually elsewhere too as it then looks much more unsettled and windier in the second week with rain at times and average temperatures in SW winds.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters today indicate a pays your money and take your choice option this morning. 45% indicate rather chilly and unsettled conditions likely two weeks from now under Low pressure to the South or East of the UK while 55% favour something more settled under High pressure close to the East or South with milder temperatures as a result.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure settling down across the South of the UK by the beginning of next week with fine and settled weather with some sunshine, light winds and temperatures pleasantly up to average or maybe a little above if sunshine is pronounced enough but equally some chilly nights and the risk of frost at night.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts indicate High pressure developing close to the UK over the holiday weekend but with several old and decaying fronts leaving a legacy of cloud across the UK skies restricting otherwise sunny conditions and holding temperatures close to average in very light winds.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows High pressure aligning up over the UK in the coming days in a more favoured axis to give the Uk dry and increasingly bright weather with some sunshine and temperatures well up to average if not a little above by day but with chilly nights giving frost under any clear skies.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM holds High pressure close to, over or just to the East of the UK with light winds for all, variable cloud cover and temperatures close to average. At the very end of the run some eroding of High pressure across the UK from the SW is shown but within the period of this morning's run it looks like it would stay dry until the end of next week at least.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM is also showing a lot of High pressure from Easter and through next week and beyond. It's centre is biased towards the NE with just enough of a drift from Europe at times to temper conditions near the East and South Coast of England at times and especially later with a chilly breeze off the sea. Elsewhere and especially in the sheltered West some decent spells of sunshine could develop with temperatures responding well by day though with a hint of slight night frosts in shelter.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last nights run shows High pressure well in control centred close to the UK and I see no reason why this morning's chart when released at 09:30 won't show something largely similar.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show a strong theme of High pressure over the UK from 48 hours time lasting for some considerable time. 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.8 pts followed by UKM at 97.5 pts and GFS at 96.7. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.2 pts over UKMO at 90.5 pts and GFS at 88.0. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 68.3 pts over GFS's 63.9 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 48.9 pts over GFS at 47.1.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS Things have firmed up on the positioning of the High pressure anticipated to take control of the UK weather from the second half of this weekend. There is universal support from the output that the High will locate over the UK for some considerable time from Sunday with fine and settled weather as a result. Also without the previous days charts indicating chances of an Easterly drift this morning temperatures could reach respectable and possibly somewhat warmer values in shelter and after a rather cloudy start to the period it looks like sunshine amounts will increase as we move through next week and drier air aloft moves in. Night's will still offer some unwelcome frosts should skies clear for any length of time but rainfall looks very unlikely for the vast majority of the UK for much of next week and that is something that can rarely be said when taking the UK as a whole for that length of time. Looking further ahead I have looked at GFS clusters and the longer term charts in general and GFS in particular shows something more mobile and changeable with some rain at times through Week 2 but one glance at the GFS clusters indicate little confidence in this outlook with conflicting forecasts within it's own members. ECM does show chinks in the High pressure's armour towards the end of the run and it does show a cooler Easterly feed of winds setting up by day 10 as the High migrates to Scandinavia with the odd shower close to the South. All in all though a good spell of useable weather to come and while it looks unlikely we will replicate some of the warmest conditions of Spring last year some very decent feeling weather is likely to be experienced by all for quite a while and it should begin to feel at last as though Spring has finally sprung.   

Issued at 08:00 Thursday April 2nd 2015

Looking great for Easter weekend especially on Monday with HP well over the top of UK.  Risk of cold frosty start in the mornings followed by decent sunshine and mid-teens temps which is normal for April now.  Only write off is tomorrow.

It is acceptable.  Any sunshine though will be most welcome.

Thank you Martin. Now we can welcome Spring.

At the moment they show 0C to -1C at night then it likely to be clear skies overnight and sunny days otherwise they would put 5-7C at nights.

Car boot weather?

Yep and good to be out early and in the sunshine at the sales.  Temps wise look around average and nothing out of ordinary so far over the weekend.  At some point 20C should be breached this month but when?

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY APRIL 3RD 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A triple point depression will slide SE across and away from SE Britain today and tonight with pressure building from the West across the UK tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming settled and dry with some sunshine and average temperatures but with a risk of occasional night frosts.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast indicates the flow being forced North well to the North of the UK over the coming days with a split flow next week with the northern arm harmlessly away towards Iceland and the increasingly influential Southern arm over Southern Europe easing North towards the UK with time as the Northern arm breaks up entirely for a time later.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure building over the UK in the coming days lasting in situ for some considerable time before sliding away slowly SE in Week 2 and allowing lower pressure to develop from the West and NW with rain and showers for all by the end of the run. Before that happens though there is a lot of dry, bright and perhaps reasonably warm conditions for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is very similar to the operational this morning, shifting the High pressure slowly away SE in Week 2 bringing some potentially warm Southerly breezes over the UK in the process before rain and more mobile SW winds develop in association with Low pressure affecting the UK by the end of the run.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters today show a lot of variability between the members with the majority still showing a High pressure bias close to the UK 14 days from now, although the positioning is unclear. There is an around 30% group which show a more mobile Atlantic flow similar to the main runs at the end of the period with rain at times for all as a result.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure well in control of the UK weather positioned over the South of England next week and sliding gently further to the SE at the end of the period but maintaining dry, settled and increasingly bright and potentially warmer conditions the deeper we move through the coming week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts indicate High pressure developing close to Southern Britain early next week with settled and dry weather. There are a lot of weak and cloudy troughs within it's proxomity close to the UK with only a slow brightening of the weather likely under the otherwise benign conditions.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM too just about holding sway over the UK by 10 days time although the High has slipped South towards France later next week before building slowly back across the UK by Day 10. Positioning of the High would allow brighter if not sunny conditions for many with temperatures pleasantly warm but having drifted far enough South the North might see frionts crossing East to the North with a little rain for a time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM holds High pressure close to or over the UK for much of next week with dry and fine weather for many with some warm sunshine. Then as the High slips slowly SE later more of a SW flow develops over the NW with a little rain possible.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM is showing a more complex and changing shape of High pressure based weather across and around the UK over the next week. The general message shown is a lot of dry, bright and increasingly sunnier weather with temperatures climbing somewhat as the next week goes on dependant on the positioning of the High day to day and the previaling airflow over our heads. A shallow Low is shown to drift north over England in about a weeks time which then becomes the catalyst for a decline in conditions from the West as an Atantic depression deepens to the West of the UK in 10 days time and sets up a stronger and mild Southerly wind.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart is beginning to show the likelihood that High pressure may begin to slip away to the East or SE in 10 days time but up t that point fine weather prevails for most.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show a strong theme of High pressure over the UK from 48 hours time lasting for some considerable time before perhaps beginning to slide away SE or East late in the period. 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.8 pts followed by UKM at 97.5 pts and GFS at 96.6. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.1 pts over UKMO at 90.5 pts and GFS at 87.9. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.6 pts over GFS's 63.6 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 49.0 pts over GFS at 47.0.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The High pressure period is now almost on our doorstep as the final day or two of cloudy and damp weather currently being experienced will be the last such days for some time. The models are all in unison in predicting High pressure to lie across the UK early next week with fine and increasingly bright weather setting up across the UK. Sunshine amounts continue to look problemmatical but there should eventually be some warm sunshine for all as the upper atmosphere cloud evaporates in drier air aloft with time. The weather should be dry for all away from the very far Northwest through next week and winds should be light. Then as we move towards next weekend the decline in High pressure begins and we have good agreement now on where the models think the High will move as it declines. It looks as though it will drift away East or SE, not a bad direction for the UK as it will probably draw some warm and humid air North across the UK as it goes and it could be some time before pressure falls suffciently enough to allow the invasion of rain bearing fronts from either the South, West or NW. There is some agreement that by 10-14 days things may look rather more unsettled across the UK with rain at times and breezier conditions but before that comes there is a good week to 10 days of very useable and pleasant Spring conditions and unlike previous days the incidence of frosts by night look somewhat less likely given the orientation and eventual movement of the High in relation to the UK shown within the output today.   

Issued at 08:00 Friday April 3rd 2015

Thanks for your reports, I've concentrated on the bit I quote.

 It's interesting that the models have, correctly, forecast high pressure influence for some time. However (if my memory serves me correctly...) some time ago they firstly indicated high pressure settling down to the west (indicating cool NWly conditions for early April) then the prognosis was high pressure moving across the Uk and to the NE (likewise but cool NEly) and now, when we're in April the high is progged to move SE (which, like you say, indicates warmer perhaps SWly weather).

Maybe the signal for relatively high pressure is easier to predict than where it will eventually move to.

You are quite right. High pressure areas are notoriously difficult to pinpoint the direction that they will take whereas Low pressure is driven by more powerful winds, jet streams etc which can give a better clue to as where and what path they take. You are also right in saying that the models did indeed track High pressure to the NE a few days back which is why at the time I was more sceptical about how high temperatues would reach and how Springlike it might feel but with the likelihood now of a more SE or Southerly drift later next week we should find somewhat higher temperatures, even moreso if we can get what looks to be stubborn areas of cloud cover at times to break up.

Hi all,

Here's today's (very late) video update;

April Look-Ahead With JMA (Good) Friday;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Also looking at CFS V2 as well.

It a shame we having Easter weekend now than next weekend with warmer temps up to 20C.  So probably best at 16-17C by Sun/Mon with sunny spells and light winds.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY APRIL 4TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION An anticyclone will move slowly East into and over the UK today and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming settled and dry with some sunshine and average temperatures but with a risk of occasional night frosts. Perhaps becoming more unsettled from the NW late in the run.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast indicates the flow now much weaker and forced away to the NW of the UK as pressure builds over the UK. Later in the period the flow reignites somewhat to the NW of Britain and slips down over the UK later, strengthening further as Atlantic Low pressure to the NW drives it East across the UK.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure building over the UK in the coming days lasting across Southern Britain through most of next week before declining away SE through Week 2 introducing mild Southerly winds then cloud and rain moving across the UK from the Atlantic later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is very similar to the operational again this morning, shifting the High pressure slowly away SE in Week 2 bringing some potentially warm Southerly breezes over the UK in the process before rain and more mobile SW winds develop in association with Low pressure affecting the UK towards the end of the run though easing again under a ridge by term.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters today still look very mixed this morning with a lot of High pressure affecting the UK conditions in 14 days with positioning of it very unclear while a reasonable group also indicating the chance of Low pressure possible to sit near to the UK with an Atlantic flow giving rise to rain in places. 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO shows High pressure across the UK next week slipping slowly South after midweek and allowing more of a SW flow to creep across Northern areas with cloud and perhaps a little rain by next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts indicate High pressure developing across the UK over the coming days while on the Northern and Eastern periphery of this High weak troughs are shown to maintain a fair amount of cloud at times within it's circulation but with the best of the brightness in the West.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM too shows High pressure across the South retreating South later next week with the fine weather gradually eroded in the North by stronger Westerly winds and rain at times. High pressure is shown never to be far from the South though with it building back across Northern areas again too by Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM weaves High pressure into and around the UK over the next 4-5 days before it too declines it away to the South with Low pressure threatening the UK from the NW by Day 7.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM completes the theme of High pressure well in control of the UK weather next week with fine and in places bright and sunny rather warm conditions, especially given winds switch to a Southerly quarter late next week as High pressure recedes SE. By the end of the run High pressure has slipped all the way SE to the Med allowing the ingress of Atlantic troughs and rain to move slowly East across Britain from the West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart is continuing to show a slow decline of High pressure to the East and SE of the UK in 10 days as pressure gently falls across the UK

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show a strong theme of High pressure over the UK from 48 hours time lasting for some considerable time before perhaps beginning to slide away SE or East late in the period. 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.8 pts followed by UKM at 97.4 pts and GFS at 96.6. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.1 pts over UKMO at 90.5 pts and GFS at 87.9. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.3 pts over GFS's 63.5 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 48.2 pts over GFS at 45.8.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The UK is slipping into a much quieter spell of weather now as all models show High pressure easing into the UK from the West. The problem is there is a lot of cloud trapped within it's circulation left over from yesterdays troughs and others over the next few days as they creep around the Northern and Eastern periphery of the High cell. Given we are now in April there is good confidence that with time more and more of this cloud will break up and conditions should steadily warm up by day especially in the West. This may well be enhanced to Southern areas later next week as a Southerly flow develops sending drier air from France up across parts of the UK. This Southerly flow then looks like switching more SW'ly next weekend and beyond with pressure gently falling to bring in the risk of more unsettled and changeable weather with near average temperatures and rain at times for many. It maybe then that we look like running the chance of a more NW/SE split in the weather later in April with the North and West at greatest risk of wind and rain at times and although this may creep down across the South and East too on occasion these areas look like continuing to see good and lengthy spells of dry and bright weather and in any sunshine some pleasantly warm days.   

Issued at 08:00 Saturday April 4th 2015

Hey all, I'm back, after a week of hiking in often dreary conditions that didn't show off the Brecon Beacons very well to say the least 

Typically, conditions look to be a good deal better this coming week, with temperatures on the rise, initially near average but soon reaching above, perhaps well above by next weekend.

ECM does give us a close call with the Atlantic storms as we go into the weekend, but aside from that the signal for fine, warm conditions is a strong one.

ECM's day 10 offering is of interest if you're into the idea of a gradually destabilising flow of warm air sourced somewhere in the northern reaches of Africa 

GFS has a more settled outcome, but with the low near the Azores slowly approaching us through lower-res to bring an unsettled finish.

It all has a whiff of April-July last year about it. It would be fun if the pattern proved so stubborn again this time around 

As long as it doesn't turn out to be our summer!

I' m sorry but very busy with work this morning but my daily analysis can be viewed over on my website at:-

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm