HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY MARCH 26TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure will clear East out into the North Sea with the parent Low sliding SE to the NE of the UK. A ridge of high pressure moves into the UK tonight followed by a weak frontal wave arriving across SW England and Wales tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mild and windy with rain at times especially in the North. Perhaps chillier and brighter later.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream is expected to strengthen over the coming few days then follow a strong West to East flow across the UK before becoming more unclear in both positioning, orientation and strength later.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows a mild and strong Westerly flow developing across the UK through the coming days and lasting for a time next week. Then colder weather is shown to return firstly from a cold NW flow and subsequent ridge and later by unsettled and showery weather as a cold pool of air develops across the UK with the risk of rain and wintry showers with frost at night returning post Easter.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is showing the same mild and windy spell next week with rain at times across the North in particular before incursions of colder conditions filter down from the North towards Easter and a signal for strong Northern blocking to develop later with Low pressure and the Jet stream driven well South of Britain with a lot of dry if rather cold weather to end the period under the influence of High pressure to the North.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters this morning all show variations on a theme of High pressure in proximity to the UK with a lot of dry weatehr in two weeks time with some reasonable amounts of sunshine. Temperatures are far less certain ranging from near average to somewhat below if that High positions itself to the West of the UK bringing us into a Northerly feed.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows the strong and mild Westerly flow across the UK early next week tilting more towards the NW for a time later as the wind and rain affecting largely the North clears to cooler and more showery weather later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the next 5 days with a developing milder Westerly weather type with fronts crossing East and SE in the flow delivering wind and rain at times in temperatures normal or somewhat above offset by the strength of the wind at times.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning continues to show it's variation on the theme of the strong Westerly flow veering to the NW at times later as repeated spells of rain give way to colder and brighter more showery weather types with always the North seeing the most noticeble changes in weather type day to day while Southern areas lying closer to High pressure to the South and SW see longer drier and less contrasting weather events day to day.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows Westerly winds throughout the duration of it's run this morning. High pressure builds close to the South at times with more in the way of rain over the North rather than the South with some short cooler interventions of polar maritime air at times in the North too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today shows very blustery conditions prevailing next week with wind and rain commonplace in the North but more occasional in the South. It looks like being fairly mild for most offset by the wind and tempered by occasional colder and brighter weather in the North with some showers. Late in the period the High pressure down to the South and SW moves further North over the Atlantic at the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows very little overall change synoptically from that it has shown for some days now with the same pattern of High pressure to the SW and Low to the North suggesting the UK will lie in changeable Westerly type weather patterns in 10 days time with temperatures close to normal at worst.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show a milder and windy theme next week and the possibility of another chillier phase of weather from the NW in Week 2. 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.8 pts followed by UKM at 97.4 pts and GFS at 96.6. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.3 pts over UKMO at 90.3 pts and GFS at 86.2. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.4 pts over GFS's 62.9 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.1 pts over GFS at 44.4.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The models suggest a little divergence in their predictions that shape week 2 of the period this morning. The coming week is now well documented as a period of mild and strong Westerly winds carry typical changeable and occasionally wet but mild weather to all areas from this weekend and well into next week. The North will always see the worst of the wind and rain but the South won't be immune either at times. Then as we look into the latter part of next week it's eyes to the North and NW as winds veer more NW'ly behind a deep Low over Europe which could bring colder and more showery but brighter weather down across the UK with the Easter Weekend not looking too bad as it stands at this point though I would add it looks unlikely that a heatwave will adorn the UK at that time. The divergences then take place as the ECM model maintains it's theme of a Westerly flow still lying across the UK 10 days from now in changeable and relatively mild conditions while GFS has thrown a much more complex set of output members many of which suggest rising pressure to the North and allowing the UK to be swallowed up in a potentially cold and possibly showery pattern as we move deeper into April. While this pattern is shown well out in the unreliable timeframe the fact that a lot of members of the GFS pack support something along those lines makes it worthy of mention and potential especially given in the short to mdium term range the way other models have toyed with bringing the risk of colder air moving down from the NW towards Easter. However, despite these interesting developments the overall outlook is unremarkable for weather enthusiasts with the spell of avearge Westerly winds, temperatures and rainfall over the next week looking like giving way slowly to somewhat chillier but brighter weather over Easter itself with scattered showers with events thereafter sheer speculation at the moment.

Issued at 08:00 Thursday March 26th 2015

A showery pattern for April? That could never happen could it?

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Westerlies Rule Next Week;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Looking best in the south.

There's been a fairly consistent and to some extent strengthening signal over the past few days for westerly momentum to drop quite sharply at a time when we have a major trough sitting over Scandinavia.

This suggests a high risk that the first half of April will feature some unusually low temperatures with the risk of some damaging frosts.

The exact positioning and alignment of the Scandi trough will be crucial as to whether we're plagued by cold easterlies as per today's GFS 12z op run or see something warmer imported from SE or S of the UK for at least a time, as featured on the GFS 06z.

Even that warmer option turned into a chilly affair at the end of the run though - emphasising the high likelihood of experiencing at least one unpleasantly cold spell of weather.

Is it me or the latest GFS output looks woeful if you're hoping for any early spring-like warmth to the season? Funny how we get charts that would have us quavering in excitement in January, but, noooooo, it's coming up to April, bit too late for all that now.

Anyway, it's all in F1, although it's going to be quite rubbish with an active Atlantic assault beforehand. Think I'll go back into hibernation again.  

The cold weather in Canada and NE USA haven't abated yet which may effect UK as the cold air hitting the Atlantic will feed more LP breeding ground and hit us with cooler than normal temps same time.  I am hoping to see some warmth over the pond side to stop all this Autumnal weather pattern here.  BH still looking good here with HP over us and moving eastward that bring SE flow and some warmth but nothing to write about in term of temps over the long weekend.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY MARCH 27TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure over Eastern Britain will move away East ahead of a deepening and vigorous depression moving NE towards NW Scotland tonight and tomorrow with active troughs crossing the North and West then further SE later tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Mild and windy with rain at times especially in the North. Perhaps chillier, drier  and brighter later.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream is expected to strengthen over the coming few days then follow a strong West to East flow across the UK before becoming weaker and less shaped later.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning is in a confused state with regard to it's longer term projections. In the next week it is clear on promoting a spell of windy or very windy weather with  rain at times before pressure builds from the South and North later sending the Atlantic bandwagon on leave as the pattern becomes loosely based on rather cold and anticyclonic weather with a return of frosts by night though a period of colder and more showery conditions is shown for a time through Week 2.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is similar in Week 1 but over Week 2 the pattern is much more High pressure based with a cebtre close to or over the UK before it migrates to the Northeast of the UK at the end of the run with a chilly Easterly flow developing across the UK. After a week of average temperatures pleasantly bright and sunny days in Week 2 would be compounded by cold and potentially frosty nights.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters this morning show a bias towards High pressure likely close to Southern and Western Britain with a weak Northerly flow across the UK. Just a small minority of members show anything more unsettled for the UK in general in two weeks time.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a strong Westerly flow with rain at times and colder showers in the North lasting well into the next week before weakening slowly soon after midweek.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the next 5 days with a strong Westerly flow and a series of fronts bringing rain at times to most parts. A trailing cold front is often shown near to Southern England maintaining the cloud and occasional rain here while Northern areas frequently enter colder polar maritime air with showers, wintry on hills.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows a changeable day to day pattern within a much more simplified pattern of High pressure to the South and SW but Low pressure passing West to East close to the North of Scotland sweeping bands of rain and milder air mixed with alternating days of colder air with showers, sometimes wintry on the hills.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows Westerly winds throughout the duration of it's run this morning. High pressure builds close to the South at times with more in the way of rain over the North rather than the South with some short cooler interventions of polar maritime air at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today shows a blustery Westerly or NW flow with alternating rain or showers in temperatures being close to, a little above or below normal day to day. the model again inches towards a much quieter and settled weather pattern under UK based High pressure late in the period with dry and sunny days but frosty nights.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows a diffuse pattern this morning as the chart is made up of various options around the positioning of High pressure near to or over the UK. The postioning of such relatively High pressure will underpin conditions at the surface and although dry weather looks like developing more widely by Day 10 as a result temperatures values especially look like being very uncertain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show a trend towards High pressure based conditions from around 1 week or so replacing the strong Westerly flow over the UK this coming week. 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.8 pts followed by UKM at 97.4 pts and GFS at 96.6. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.3 pts over UKMO at 90.3 pts and GFS at 86.2. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.3 pts over GFS's 63.2 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.6 pts over GFS at 45.1.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS There seems reasonal asumption between the different model outputs this morning that a spell of strong Westerly winds for the next week look likely across the UK. These winds will drive various spells of rain and showers across the UK, always heaviest and most proniunced in the North with longer drier and perhaps milder spells likely over the South. Then as pressure builds from the SW towards the back end of next week the weather turns drier and more setlled and much less windy with some Spring sunshine by day but risks of frost by night, quite widespread for some. Some output especially GFS shows a strong shift towards northern blocking later which if occurred could delay Spring to the Uk as winds would be inclined to blow from a chilly Europe rather than a milder source. Still a lot of water to pass under the bridge before we look towards the Post Easter period but as it stands this morning there is little particularly bad weather likely with Easter itself looking set fair for many although projected synoptics look unlikely to allow the UK to lie under a heatwave.

Issued at 08:00 Friday March 27th 2015

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Into April With JMA Friday;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Using JMA and CFS models today to plot what may happen in the coming month.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY MARCH 28TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A strong West or SW flow will continue across the UK with a cold front sweeping East across the Uk today and further fronts tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mild and windy with rain at times especially in the North. Dry and more settled from a weeks time but with frosty nights.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream is expected to strengthen over the coming few days moving West to East across the UK weakening again later and becoming more ill defined in both location and direction later.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows a strong Westerly flow across the UK through the coming week with rain at times from troughs crossing East in the flow. By the Easter weekend things have become quieter and drier under High pressure which then perisists either over or close to the UK for the rest of the run with fine and perhaps rather chilly days at times and cold frosty nights

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is broadly similar in trtend and sequence as High pressure builds over the UK through Easter na dfollows into the next week. This run shows rather less cold conditions though due to more favoured positioning of High pressure to engage warmer source air so although some frost can be expected daytimes could be pleasantly springlike in the sunshine.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters indicate a strong High pressure bias, probably just to the West of the UK with a chill North wind in bright weather two weeks from now. There is a 40% cluster though which go for something much more unsettled with either NW or North winds and rain or wintry showers for places.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure slowly building up from the SW later this coming week with the earlier windy and changeable weather slowly giving way to cooler and drier weather with some sunshine especially in the South to start the Easter weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show complex trough systems crossing West to East over the UK this coming week, each bringing rain at times before a more definitive rise in pressure develops from the SW towards the Easter holiday.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM also builds High pressure across the UK next weekend with drier and less windy but perhaps chilly conditions looking likely for Easter. Before that happens a windy and changeable spell of weather is expected for all between now and next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too builds pressure across the UK over Easter, this time from the NW. The air will be cold so bright sunny days will not see very high temperatures and the nights could be jolly cold with fairly widespread frosts across britain by night.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM too shows High pressure building in from the West towards Easter with a cold Northerly flow across the UK dragging wintry showers South across the East at times and giving rise to fairly widespread frosts under clear skies almost anywhere.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows a pattern of rising pressure across the Uk from the SW with just gentle NW winds the bias in pressure circa 1020mbs plus for many.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show a trend towards High pressure based conditions from around Easter lasting through Week 2. 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.8 pts followed by UKM at 97.4 pts and GFS at 96.5. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.3 pts over UKMO at 90.4 pts and GFS at 86.2. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.0 pts over GFS's 63.4 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 48.1 pts over GFS at 44.7.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The main message this morning is for a change in weather types at the half way point in the model outputs tme range this morning. The first week taking us up to Easter will continue in similar vein to the conditions currently with a strong Westerly flow delivering spells of rain or/and showers in temperatures around average offset by the wind. Some colder and more showery periods will occur over the North with some wintriness over the hills. Then soon after midweek pressure begins to build from either the SW or West. As a precursor to this it looks like a spell of rain will introduce fairly chilly conditions down across all areas by Good Friday. Pressure then looks like becoming High right over the top of the UK or very close by but being formed in inherently cold air no heatwave over Easter looks likely. Most models indicate fine and settled weather though with some sprakling sunshine by day and apart from the odd shower near the East coast the vast majority will be dry. By far the highlight though will be the occurrence of some unseasonably low temperatures by night with widespread frosts both in the air and on the ground so not good news for gardeners and growers given that we will be well into April by then. In the far reaches of the run from GFS nothing any warmer looks likely with pressure remaining High at high latitudes and any rainfall will most likely develop in the South rather than elsewhere with a chilly feed from Eurpe looking possible. So all in all a period of two halves with the milder, windier and Atlantic phase of the first week giving way to anticyclonic conditions with some sunny spells but temperatures rather suppressed by day and certainly by night but at least by then it should be largely if not completely dry across the UK.

Issued at 08:00 Saturday March 28th 2015

 I think its a pretty safe bet that there will be snow this week.

Thursday/Friday could be particularly interesting.

You need to qualify that to location otherwise people might get the wrong idea

Well obviously not Plymouth or Dover! 

As always its the north and east that are most likely to see snow. I would be very surprised if any low ground snow makes it south of the North midlands which is usually the cut off point in marginal snow situs. 

Still the idea on the GFS to have a spell of snow at the end of the week as an atlantic system bumps up against some very cold air. The UKMO also has a period of snow. At this stage snow most likely in central areas north of a line from Manchester to Lincoln. I think I know where this is going, Sheffield AGAIN! 

I know people are hunting for warmth at this time of year, but instead you should probably be looking at that snow row! I suspect there will be a snow potential thread on this Board by Wednesday! 

That's the spirit - Never too early, never too late  

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00(BST) ON SUNDAY MARCH 29TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A very strong Westerly flow covers all of the UK with fast moving frontal troughs periodically crossing the UK from the West, especially across the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE The changeable and sometimes windy spell will be replaced by drier and more settled conditions from the end of this week.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream is shown to blow strongly across the UK in a West to East direction for the next three to four days. The flow then is shown to weaken and tilt more NW to SE over NW Europe as pressure rises across the UK, This ridiging in the flow intensifies later sending the flow well to the NW later as pressure builds near to the UK..

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows a strong Westerly flow across the UK through the coming few days with further rain and showers before drier, colder, less windy weather spreads down across the UK later in the week as pressure rises. The Easter break should turn out set fair across the UK with some sunny spells and dry conditions as High pressure continues to be projected to lie across or near the UK with frosty nights possible. Late in the period High pressure remains in control though it would become colder still if the positioning is as shown at the end of the run with a chilly North-East wind across the South and SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run also shows the current wet and windy weather being replaced later in the week with cooler and quieter conditions with a gentler Northerly breeze. High pressure is then shown to build over the Uk for easter meaning dry and fine conditions with sunny spells, average temperatures but frost by night. then in the second half of the run High pressure remains in control but slips West into the Atlantic drawing cloudier skies down across the UK from the NW but with little in the way of rain and temperatures close to average..

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters indicate strong agreement surrounding the basic message that the UK will lie under a High pressure influence two weeks from now with just the positioning of such a High dictating resultant conditions at the surface. Only a 20% group show a more Atlantic Westerly based pattern with rain at times at the same time point.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows an unsettled and changeable period to come with the current strong winds and rain or showers giving way to quieter weather but still with some rain later in the week with a slow build of pressure lying just to the East of the UK by the Easter weekend gradually settling things down somewhat by then though probably with a lot of cloud and average temperatures at best.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show complex arrangements of troughs periodically crossing West to East across the UK over the next 96 hours or so delivering rain and showers at times in fresh to strong winds from a Westerly quadrant before pressure tries to build up from the SW as we approach Easter but with more troughs out in the Atlantic poised perilously close to the West by Good Friday.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows a very changeable and often windy week to come with winds gradually veering NW later in the week dragging colder conditions down across the UK with showers, wintry in the North. through Easter High pressure makes inroads across the South of the UK settling things down increasingly as we move through the Easter break before a return to windy and changeable weather in NW winds is shown again post Easter.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows slowly improving conditions under High pressure as we move into next weekend though it takes almost until Easter Monday to lose the influence of a chill North wind and showers away from Eastern Britain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM shows most of this week unsettled and changeable with rain and showers at times in temperatures decending later in the week as more of a cold Northerly feed takes hold for a time. Easter itself will be an improving one with the best days late in the 4 day break as High pressure by then is shown to have a better foothold across the UK with dry and fine days with some sunshine for most to end the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows High pressure well in control of the UK weather in 10 days with a centre close to or over the West of the UK

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show a trend towards High pressure based conditions from around Easter lasting through Week 2 though it's onset is a little more delayed this morning. 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.8 pts followed by UKM at 97.4 pts and GFS at 96.6. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.3 pts over UKMO at 90.5 pts and GFS at 86.3. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.6 pts over GFS's 63.5 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.9 pts over GFS at 45.7.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The change from the current very windy and unsettled spell is still on course this morning though it's onset may be delayed a little from previous thinking setting the Easter break up for an improving one with the best days likely to be towards Sunday and Monday as the early days of the holiday could see the backwash of a cold Northerly feed on an exiting depression over Europe over Good Friday and Saturday suppressing temperatures then and delivering a few showers to Eastern Britain too. Then once established there is still a fair chance shown across the output this morning that a dry and fine period could well last for some time as changes in the Atmosphere from Easter on look slow and unclear. Conditions at the surface across all parts of the UK will be totally dependent on the resting place of the High and the prevailing wind direction and source. Well favoured at this morning's juncture is that winds will be for a North or NE flow with High pressure likely to the West or even North of the UK giving something of a chill to any drift of air from the North or NE though ECM places the High later on into a more favourable spot to the SE for milder temperatures to develop later. It's all a case of wait and see how the models project the High pressure near the event but the one constant shown within all output is that things will turn far less windy and unsettled at the end of this week with some fine and settled conditions for all but no heatwave. Unfortunately Easter itself is looking increasingly likely to fall within the transition period of the change and as a result any further delay could change the complexion of Easter altogether to a more unsettled and cool one but as it stands most places should see some dry and set fair weather over the Easter 4 day break with the latter days favoured for the most sunshine and most pleasant conditions lasting on then through much of the second week.

Issued at 08:00 Sunday March 29th 2015

Could do with some s**w in with those  Northerlies .. Westerly's  would be ok.. 

Wow, the charts at the end of the week are insane, very active occluded front could even turn things stormy, potentially some very heavy snow for some places.

The UKMO shows Thurs- Saturday the Azores High in Control with Short wave/ Low P. Trofs for the NE, NW plus N. With SW Central and SE UK likely settled conditions.

It rained in where I am today quite a heavy shower, and a previous downpour shower last Friday, More of the Same Showers tomorrow Monday, Tuesday cool with NW flow and rain showers, Winds drop on Wenesday for SW UK

in particular.

GFS and UKMO models keep us we'll SEE and SW of the Main PV North Atlantic and Norwegian Sea N Europe PFJ areas of Low Pressure systems which are likely to pass close and over through and at times well West NW and to NE of us, Mostly Iceland N NE Europe and Iceland, Clipping N. Ireland and N England and Scotland for another 14 days, though I can only describe that certain agreed forecast is upto 11 days forecastable, the GFS shows up then UKMO pick it up, Low Pressure and High P. Azores, Shortwaves will be likely upto 2 weeks ahead.

I don't know why you lot are dismissing this so casually, there is some very cold air ahead of that front.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY MARCH 30TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Troughs of Low pressure will cross East over the UK today and at first tonight in a strong Westerly flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE The changeable and sometimes windy spell will be replaced by drier and more settled conditions from the Easter weekend.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream is shown to blow strongly across the UK in a West to East direction for the next three to four days. The flow then is shown to veer more towards a Northerly drift down across the UK as a ridge builds to the West. Then after a few quieter days the flow resurges in strength over the Atlantic and crossing the UK again later in a West to East direction.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows a strong Westerly flow across the UK through the coming few days with further rain and showers before the flow eases as pressure rises towards and over the Easter weekend. Then as we move through next week High pressure is squeezed away to the SE as Low pressure over the Atlantic regains some control with wind and rain once more moving West to East across the UK later especially over the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run shows similar easing in the Westerly flow later this week as High pressure builds across the UK. Unlike the operational it holds on to High pressure across the UK for much of next week too with plenty of fine and dry weather with some sunshine, light winds but frosty nights. It's not until the end stages of this run that the threat of an Atlantic breakthrough develops towards the North and West.

THE GFS CLUSTERS  The GFS clusters continue to show a High pressure based bias across the UK in two weeks time, most likely positioned just to the SW. Whether or not it is influential enough to keep the Northernmost areeas of the UK dry and settled is less clear but a light NW or west flow across the UK looks the most likely.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a stalling cold front crossing slowly East on Thursday as pressure builds across the UK from Scandinavia over the start of the Easter weekend. Rain on Thursday and perhaps Good Friday looks like dying out leaving the UK rather chilly and cloudy but dry by Easter Sunday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show complex arrangements of troughs periodically crossing West to East across the UK over the next 96 hours or so delivering rain and showers at times in fresh to strong winds from a Westerly quadrant.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today makes very little of any meaningful High pressure restricting improvements to just a few days fortunately over the weekend Easter break. Then as we move through next week the return of Atlantic West or NW winds with some rain or showers at times for most especially the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM looks a little like UKMO this morning developing a chilly ridge SW across the UK from High pressure over Scandinavia which in itself slips South late in the period but ensuring a dry and bright second half to the Easter Holiday though definateley not warm.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM shows improvements taking shape at the weekend as the Atlantic Jet flow and bandwagon weakens. High pressure is shown to build through the UK forming a centre across the UK before it drifts further out to the west or even NW later maintaining fine and dry conditions next week too but never overly warm with frost at night and variable amounts of sunshine day to day.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows High pressure well in control of the UK weather in 10 days with a centre close to or over the West of the UK

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show a trend towards High pressure based conditions from around Easter lasting through most if not all of Week 2. 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.8 pts followed by UKM at 97.4 pts and GFS at 96.6. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.4 pts over UKMO at 90.5 pts and GFS at 88.3. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.5 pts over GFS's 63.3 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.5 pts over GFS at 46.1.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS All models show the current very strong Westerly flow across the UK giving way to something much quieter from the Easter weekend. Such a change is never straightforward and the transitional period is fraught with complications in the shape of a stalling front moving into higher pressure setting up to the NE of the UK. The front having brought rain slowly East across the UK through Thursday looks like decaying in situ over Good Friday leading to a disappointing and cool start to the 4 day break. However, all models support High pressure building across the UK by the second half of the weekend with fine if rather chilly weather developing with the chance of some sunshine developing but with clearer night skies frost becomes a risk too. Then as we stretch our thoughts into conditions post Easter it does look like High pressure could hang around near or close to the West or NW of the UK for some considerable time supported by a weaker Jet flow over the Atlantic. The exact positioning of the High will dictate the airflow source across the UK but in any long spells of April sunshine temperatures will approach average values but in any clear skies by night some very unwelcome and possibly quite sharp frosts could continue. Then as we look at the extreme timelines of this morning's output principally from GFS we see the risk of the Atlantic Westerlies returning at least to the North and West of Britain but at two weeks away this may change in subsequent runs. 

Issued at 08:00 Monday March 30th 2015

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Cool April Hint's;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Signs of a pretty chilly month ahead maybe?