HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY MARCH 21ST 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure lies across the UK today and tomorrow before a trough of Low pressure moves SE towards NW Scotland later tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable weather with rather cold weather for a time with some showers next week replaced by milder Westerly winds and rain at times, chiefly in the North through week 2.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream is currently positioned North to South across the UK on the Eastern axis of a ridge from the SW across the UK. The trend is for this to be maintained for a time before a stronger flow urges across the Atlantic in a week or so with the flow then taking a more direct west to east course across the North of the UK and perhaps further South later..

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows the quiet weather currently across the UK under a ridge of High pressure slowly collapsing away early next week as a phase of cold and showery weather moves down across the UK on Tuesday, lasting for several days especially in the SE before giving way to equally changeable weather with some rain at times on a Westerly flow later. Temperatures would recover for a time with much of the rain reserved for the North but with further chilly and showery NW'ly type winds again late in the period

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run follows the course of the operational well this morning with a rather cold and unsettled period next week before slowly recovering temperatures under Westerly winds bring rain at times to the North and West and to all again later as the Low pressure to the North becomes more invasive for all later.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters nearly all support varying degrees of influence from High pressure positioned to the SW of the UK in 14 days time with some output showing benign weather under a NW flow while others support something more mobile with rain and showers at times to all areas in the same but stronger NW feed.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a cold phase under Northerly winds on Tuesday and Wednesday with heavy showers before the pressure pattern becomes slack by the latter end of the week with dry weather by then but bright conditions and a strong risk of overnight frosts.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a cold front clearing SE on Monday followed by a chilly and showery NW to North flow with a ridge returning from the West by soon after midweek.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning follows the main core of output in showing the cold Northerly phase of conditions early and middle of next week slowly being replaced by a stronger Westerly flow drawing in milder air and a lot of cloud with some rain too, mostly for the North and West as High pressure still lies close to SW England.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM holds on to the colder period next week somewhat longer with conditions at the end of the run 1 week from now replicating conditions of the other models a day or so earlier with a ridge lying across the UK from the SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today too shows a chilly and showery period next week under a cold north wind towards midweek. This is then shown to be slowly displaced by Westerly winds and rain at times, increasing restricted towards the North as High pressure builds up to the South of the UK in the later stages of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart keeps the theme it has shown for some days now in that the pattern 10 days from now is likely to be influenced by mild Westerly winds, a jet stream flowing over the UK (though further North than this chart has shown recently) Low pressure to the NW and High to the SW with rain at times, chiefly but not exclusively across the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Trend Changes From Previous Days are generally much in the same vein as was shown yesterday but with still good support for a cold Northerly for a time next week with some degree of uncertainty on longevity before all models support a westerly theme thereafter..

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.9 pts followed by UKM at 97.4 pts and GFS at 96.6. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.5 pts over UKMO at 89.6 pts and GFS at 88.1. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.7 pts over GFS's 63.3 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 51.1 pts over GFS at 46.0.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The pattern of the weather expected over the coming two weeks is offering only small challenges for the models at the moment with a larger than usual good consensus of agreement of the pattern of the weather likely over the next few weeks. In the first stages the current rather pleasant if none too warm weather will give way to a phase of cold and showery weather behind a cold front moving South across the UK on Monday with some rain for all. The showery phase over Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday could be quite lively for a time with hail and thunder possible and snow over higher hills. Then all models show a change to rather less cold and perhaps rather mild tropical maritime Westerly winds with a lot of cloud and rain at times, chiefly across the North. There is though a little disagreement in the length of time that the cold and showery phase towards midweek lasts with some output stretching it on towards next weekend as it is enhanced by another small Low moving into the cold air from the West. However, even this output comes in line with the rest for Week 2 in showing Westerly winds, quite strong at times but High pressure building not far from the South again with time and keeping the worst of the wind and rain along with shorter colder and showery NW'lies to the North of the UK with just glancing blows across the South. So all in all typical March output shown this morning with nothing too serious to wory outdoor events aside of some sharp frosts possible between now and the end of next week and a sharp shower ot two for a time in the middle of next week. Week 2 could in fact end up rather mild if breezy especially in the South with any brightness in the lee of high ground to the West lifting temperatures towards the magic 15C or so later.

Issued at 08:00 Saturday March 21st 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY MARCH 22ND 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure lies across the South of the UK today followed by a weakening cold front followed by a showery NW flow moves SE across the UK tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable weather with rather cold weather for a time with some showers next week replaced by milder Westerly winds and rain at times, chiefly in the North through week 2.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream is currently positioned to the NW of the UK. It turns South down across the UK in the first few days of this week before simplifying to a more direct West to East motion across the Atlantic and the UK as time progresses, particularly through Week 2.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows a cold front moving SE across the Uk tomorrow followed by a rather cold and showery phase of weather before things gradually simplify to a more traditional early Spring pattern of High pressure to the South of the UK and low to the North with a fresh to strong Westerly flow and embedded troughs delivering rain at times in average temperatures. The heaviest and most frequent rainfall expected to be across the North and West with longer dry spells over the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is very similar to the operational with the added ingredient of the chance of another chilly NNW flow for all in week 2, just for a time.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters nearly all support High pressure lying fairly close to the SW of the Uk in two weeks time with a NW flow across the UK. Some rain or showers is likely across the North with plenty of dry weather over the South. Temperatures by most members are shown close to average but with some cooler days through the period in the North

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a cold phase under Northerly winds on Tuesday and Wednesday with heavy showers for a time before winds back more Westerly late in the week with a further trough moving across with some rain and hill snow across the North before temperatures slowly recover by the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a cold front clearing SE on Monday followed by a chilly and showery NW to North flow with a ridge returning from the West by soon after midweek and more troughs from off a milder Atlantic towards next weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning maintains the theme of the rest with the cold Northerly weather with some heavy showers towards midweek steadily giving way to less cold westerly winds by next weekend to set up a North/South split in the weather from then with fresh to strong West winds for all with rain at times, chiefly in the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM is much the same as the rest today with less cold conditions by next weekend as winds back Westerly with some rain in the North but a lot of dry and benign rather cloudy conditions over the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today completes the set with High pressure lying not far from the South coast of England by the middle of the second week with ncreasingly mild if breezy conditions by then with some rain at times across the North chasing away the chillier and more changeable conditions that is shiwn for much of the first week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart keeps the theme it has shown for some days now in that the pattern 10 days from now is likely to be influenced by mild Westerly winds, a jet stream flowing over the UK (though further North than this chart has shown recently) Low pressure to the NW and High to the SW with rain at times, chiefly but not exclusively across the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Trend Changes are nil today with very good cross model support for the evolution described within the models above and those of the last few days.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.9 pts followed by UKM at 97.4 pts and GFS at 96.7. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.3 pts over UKMO at 89.6 pts and GFS at 86.1. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.2 pts over GFS's 62.7 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 50.6 pts over GFS at 46.2.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS Quite a short my thoughts summary from me today as the pattern that is shown this morning is well set in stone between the models again this morning. After several rather cold and for a time showery couple of days towards midweek the trend is then set for a change to rather stronger and milder Atlantic Westerly winds though ithese may take until next weekend to reach all areas. Once established this weather type will be windy with some rain at times, mostly across the North and even more restricted to the North later in the forecast period as High pressure to the South looks like ridging slowly North towards Southern England late in the period with some very mild tropical maritime air in tow making for some very pleasant conditions should brightness develop. A few colder polar maritime air incursions could affect the North at times throughout the Westerly period but even here these look like being short-lived with the vast majority of the time seeing the UK under average temperatures at worst after the chilly working week to come this week

Issued at 08:00 Sunday March 22nd 2015

GFS really wants to develop a low to the NW of the UK on Friday - and some 06z GEFS even bring it right across us (like the GFS 06z op) - which flies in the face of recent ECM runs in which little development has been seen whatsoever.

Combined with Thursday's slow moving frontal system accompanying a weak surface low, these features have the potential to take March out of the 'dry' category towards something nearer average for many parts.

GFS takes things even further on the 12z as a shallow but moisture-laden disturbance crosses the far south through Saturday morning. That would probably raise totals very close to average indeed (bear in mind the LTA totals for March are among the lowest of all months).

Beyond that point, the jet stream goes a bit mental, with the Azores High unable to inflate and build into the UK as per the morning ECM run... in fact we are visited by an unusually intense storm system which would not be good for my hiking in Wales:

Here's hoping GFS is being over-aggressive with the jet 

That looks dreadful.

The ECM 12z is a low blow for my hiking chances... three active frontal systems in four days. This following Friday's low which ECM has now jumped on board with, with UKMO also thinking along similar lines.

It's not been a good evening of model watching when all's said and done 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY MARCH 23RD 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure is moving SE across NW areas moving SE through today and tonight followed by a showery and cold NW flow tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable weather across the UK. The South will see some good drier spells later. It will be chilly this week but milder conditions for all are expected for much of next week.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream is currently flowing South over the UK on the Eastern flank of the main West to East flow across the Atlantic. The flow simplifies and strengthens from later this week with a strong West to East flow across the UK expected from the end of the week through the remainder of the period.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows a very changeable pattern developing over the upcoming period as a stronger Westerly flow across the Atlantic extends across the UK with Low pressure to the North and High to the South. As a result this weeks chilly and changeable period looks like being replaced by equally changeable conditions but under stronger and milder Westerly winds rain at times chiefly but not exclusively in the North in Week 2.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is more in favour of High pressure to the South being more influential across the South of the UK next week with the stronger Westerly flow in the North restricting the worst of the wind and rain to Northern areas with milder Westerly conditions for all and fairly extended dry and occasionally bright weather across the South.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters all support High pressure to the SW of the UK two weeks from now but with differing opinions in proximity and extent to it's influence across the UK. 60% hold it close to the South or SW with fine weather likely across the South with rain at times for the North while 40% show it far enough to the SW to bring a broad NW flow across the UK with rain and showers a risk for all in blustery and perhaps chilly winds.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a milder Westerly flow strengthening and developing across the UK by or over the weekend replacing the rather chilly and unsettled weather with rain and showers at times expected through the working days of this week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex weather pattern later this week as the cold and showery conditions tomorrow get injected by a trough moving into it from the West on Thursday with a cold wet day likely on Thursday, repeated again on Friday as a rapidly deepening depression moves NE just to the NW of the UK with strong winds accompanying the rain then.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows a typical early Spring Westerly flow developing across the UK in the second week with fresh to strong Westerly winds with rain at times for all in temperatures close to average, all this replacing the rather cold and changeable theme to the weather between now and the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a stronger Westerly flow developing from the end of the week as milder air brings rain at times especially to the North and West with a few more showery spells to the far North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM completes the set with milder Atlantic Westerlies at the weekend, strong for many delivering some rain at times, chiefly over the North and West. the UK is shown to be chilly and changeable up until this point and by the end of the run a cold NW or Northerly phase brings another spell of showery weather down over all areas as pressure builds North over the Atlantic.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart disagrees with it's operational maintaining a mild Westerly flow across the UK made up of varying options a few of which do show a colder NW'ly but many more keeping High pressure close to the South and consequent dry weather under Westerly winds while the North maintains cloud and some rain on a more regular basis.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models show little overall change in trend to those shown over recent runs.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.8 pts followed by UKM at 97.4 pts and GFS at 96.6. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.2 pts over UKMO at 89.6 pts and GFS at 87.9. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.4 pts over GFS's 62.5 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 49.1 pts over GFS at 45.1.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The output this morning remains typically Springlike with a chilly and unsettled period this week with rain at times especially later in the week following the cold and showery phase tomorrow. We then switch to stronger and mild Westerly winds over the weekend and next week but still with some rain at times. The most unsettled weather from the weekend looks like being experienced across the North and West while Southern and Eastern Britain see some decent dry periods when in any brightness temperatures could respond to above average levels at times though probably accompanied by large cloud amounts and a noticeable breeze. The whole Winter season just passed has been governed by the behaviour of the Azores High pressure down to the SW and as we move through the start of Spring this remains the dominant force spreading it's influence NE at times and this is again shown later from some output allowing the unsettled and windy weather to recede Northwards again. Still at least there is nothing particularly harsh in weather terms shown within this morning's output with typical Spring changeable weather for all looking likely and some reasonably benign and dry weather spells likely at times too especially in the South with the UK as a whole maintaining temperatures close to average or a little above at times and perhaps just below in the far North on brief occasions as polar maritime incursions push through at times.

Issued at 08:00 Monday March 23rd 2015

Hi folks. Just a quick post script from me with regard to my daily reports. I am much like yourselves that there is little of substance to talk about currently now that the Winter posters have largely gone into hibernation for the next 7 months or so and being as my days are taken up largely away from my pc and the fact that I don't like communicating via mobile particularly. I apologize for not responding to your kind words of support re the daily summaries I provide. They are a little time consuming first thing in the morning's but I hope they give the less knowledgeable that read them an insight on what weather to expect over the coming weeks and if all you folks are up for it I hope to continue them on ad infinitum. They are of course part of my own websites output daily where can be found much more information about the weather principally for my own home patch principally but also give lots of live data feeds and other informative things weather related. I visit this forum several times a day morning and evening and do read all your posts and find them very interesting and informative, especially from the likes of Gavin and James whose knowledge and input are highly commendable. I may not (outside of my reports) place much input into the thread but I do appreciate all the kind comments that you give me and hope that you all continue to enjoy reading them.

Thank you Martin for the weather output. Read it daily and as local  read your Norton-Radstock site daily. Much appreciated.

Thanks Martin for your excellent contribution to this forum. Your posts are a welcome contribution and we all look forward to seeing them on here :-)

Indeed.

All over the shop after day 5

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY MARCH 24TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold and showery NW flow covers the UK today followed by a ridge of High pressure moving across from the West tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE After an unsettled start the South should become drier and milder while the North stays unsettled with strong winds and rain at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream is currently projected to flow across the Atlantic and over the British Isles as a more mobile Westerly regime sets up from the weekend. Later in the period the pattern becomes more confused and less clear.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows a more mobile westerly regime developing across the UK from late this week with a strong but milder Westerly flow and occasional rain especially over the North. The pattern then becomes more changeable later in terms of temperatures and rainfall for all with another cold interlude shown to move South down over the UK in Week 2 with more unceratin conditions expected to end the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is very similar in theme to the operational in the short to medium term before diversifying slightly late in the period. A westerly based weather pattern continues to show occasional rain and milder weather with rain at times especially over the North. The run also shows another chilly period early in Week 2 before the gradual return to Westerly winds and occasional rain looks possible by the end of the period.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters this morning offers several different options mostly revolving the extent and influence of High pressure looking likely to lie to the SW or West of the UK in 14 days time.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a steady increase in Westerly winds as we move through the weekend and into next week. The air will become milder as tropical maritime air is shown to lie over the South early next week with most rain bearing fronts held over more Northern areas where rain will be far more likely.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the next 5 days as rather unsettled over the UK as a series of fronts and small depressions track slowly East across the UK, first into rather cold air before milder air becomes more prominent towards and then over the UK by the end of the weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows a similar evolution to the GFS model today in introducing strong but milder Westerly winds next week with rain at times especially across the North before colder air looks likely to come down from the NW at the start of the second week in NW winds and showers following a band of rain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows stiff Westerly breezes with occasional rain across the UK next week, chiefly over the North while the South sees a lot of dry, rather cloudy, breezy but mild weather lasting out until the term of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today shows the same pattern as the rest with the theme of milder and Atlantic Westerly winds with occasional rain from later this week on and following the next few days worth of more general rain at times for all in rather cooler air. Next week will see some mild air across the UK for some considerable time especially over the South before the threat of rather colder air looks like possibly moving down from the NW at times later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN  The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows High pressure lying over Northern France in 10 days time with a mild Westerly flow across the UK with rain at times largely restricted to the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show a milder theme next week and the possibility of another chillier phase of weather from the NW in Week 2. 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.8 pts followed by UKM at 97.4 pts and GFS at 96.6. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.2 pts over UKMO at 89.8 pts and GFS at 88.2. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 66.8 pts over GFS's 62.4 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 48.6 pts over GFS at 44.9.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS Today's models continue to project a milder phase of weather under a strong Westerly breeze next week following the current rather unsettled and chilly period up to the coming weekend. Once this westerly wind is established High pressure is likely to edge up close to the South while Low pressure crosses East to the North of the UK with their attendent troughs affecting mostly Northern areas where rain at times next week will be commonplace. With the High close to the South a lot of dry weather is likely here although even here we are not immune to at least a little rain as troughs edge down from the North at times. Temperatures though should reach very respectable levels next week for almost all and if any brightness in the more sheltered East occurs then the temperatures could reach the mid teens or so. So where do we move too from there. Well the message I read from the output this morning is that from late next week and into the second week while a Westerly based theme looks like persisting colder air from the NW is hinted at from many models to move SE across the UK briefly bringing a return to chilly winds and showers, wintry on hills in the North. This is of course a long way off and will likely be changed many times over the coming days but the one constant again this morning is the lack of any disruptive type weather of any kind shown anywhere within the next few weeks with a very typical mix of different early Spring conditions likely over all areas with some rain and showers, chiefly in the North but a lot of fine and dry weather over the South in temperatures overall close to or even somewhat above normal at times over the South and East.

Issued at 08:00 Tuesday March 24th 2015

The westerlies which Martin refers to seem to lose their impetus once across the UK, and give way to regular northerly plunges over Denmark and N germany, who must be getting a bit fed up with cold air persisting so long into Spring. The east coast of the UK just gets a sideswipe from these plunges from time to time

The season of April showers interspersed with  increasingly warm, sunny interludes lies just around the corner, and I for one can't wait.

Hi all,

Here's today's video update - It's a longer range look-ahead today;

April To June From Japan;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/  

A warm start to summer?

Northerly shot being indicated on the GFS later. Think its pretty unlikely given lack of support from ECM, but interest sparked none the less.

Same on 18z runs and very good to get this shot as it mean followed by a decent Easter Weekend and warming up slowly each day while HP take reside over that period, good for big car boot sales on BH Monday after losing both of them last year 2 out of 4 BH weekend washouts.  A bit dodgy for this Sunday so probably likely to be cancelled but not bothered about it as I focus more on BH Monday.  I also now working Mon-Fri shift no longer Tue-Sat shift pattern that I solely missed now, which I don't get BH off but get time in lieu so hoping this year every BH weekend to be decent enough to enjoy out regardless what the temps is. 

Back to Easter weekend models forecast view from today but would change for better, worse or the same?

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY MARCH 25TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will move East across the UK today followed by an active front  pushing East across the UK tonight and followed by a cool NW flow tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE After an unsettled start the South should become drier and milder while the North stays unsettled with strong winds and rain at times. Perhaps turning colder again later.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream is expected to strengthen over the coming few days then follow a strong West to East flow across the UK before becoming lighter and more undulating later in the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows a changeable period over the next few weeks as a strong Westerly flow sets up between High pressure to the South of the UK and Low pressure areas moving East well to the North of Scotland. The flow will contain troughs especially over the North with some rain at times and occasional shorter chillier spells with showers again chiefly over Northern Britain otherwise temperatures could be quite respectable at times over the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is showing a NW/SE split in weather conditions predominating for much of the next few weeks once set up over the coming days. A lot of breezy, mild and cloudy weather with rain at times is  highlighted for more Northern and Western areas while the South and East are shown to experience a lot of dry and mild weather if rather cloudy and breezy with just a little rain now and again as High pressure lies close to Southern Britain for much of the time.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters this morning offer an 85% bias towards High pressure influence across the UK with various positioning of the High to the West or SW of the UK. Just 15% show a UK wide unsettled and windy period by the end of the second week with rain or showers for all.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a strengthening Westerly flow over the coming days with rain at times in all areas but most of all across the North and West with gales in places there. Milder air will engulf the UK for a time through the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the next 5 days as rather unsettled over the UK as a series of fronts and small depressions track East across the UK in increasingly strong winds and milder air.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows a strong Westerly flow developing across the UK as Low pressure moves East to the North of Scotland and higher pressure developing to the South. Wind and rain will affect many parts especially the North and West before later in the period the mild Westerly tilts more NW at times bringing rain at times to the South too and more importantly the risk of colder and more showery weather on that NW wind to all areas at times late in the 10 day period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a mild and strong Westerly wind blowing across the UK next week with rain at times, especially over the North. This run too hints at ac hange to colder and more showery weather on a NW wind occurring late in the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today also indicates a mild and windy period for much of next week with rain at times especially over the North with very little reaching the South. Then later in the period as High pressure builds through the Atlantic colder but lighter NW or North winds return cold and showery weather South to all areas with few if any showers though in the West but a return to widepread night time frosts in inherently cold air across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows a rather simplistic view of a Westerly feed across the UK with High pressure close to the South. In reality there are some slightly more unsettled options hinted at within the pack and equally some colder ones too but the bias remains held in favour of an unspectacular and benign pattern likely, very typical of late March and early April.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show a milder theme next week and the possibility of another chillier phase of weather from the NW in Week 2. 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.8 pts followed by UKM at 97.4 pts and GFS at 96.5. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.2 pts over UKMO at 90.1 pts and GFS at 86.1. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 66.7 pts over GFS's 62.5 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.9 pts over GFS at 44.5.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The models today continue to project a pattern much agreed between the output of events of weather over the  UK over the next few weeks. The basic pattern remains one of an increasing Westerly wind over the coming days drawing milder tropical maritime air across the UK with some pleasant temperatures expected next week especially in the lee of high ground such as Eastern England and Eastern Scotland if any brightness develops through the daytimes. Some NW areas could see a lot of rain over the days of next week as the air will be very moist but many Southern areas will benefit from High pressure projected to lie reasonably close to the South keeping any rainfall here to no more than a splash or two in long periods of dry, mild if rather overcast skies. Then we have to look further ahead to what lies beyond next weeks mild theme and this morning's output continues to suggest that a colder injection of air from the NW or North is possible with sunny skies, scattered showers and night frosts returning later in Week 2. There are varying degrees of extent of this change and no doubt the models will jostle around with varying scenarios of how this might evolve as we inch closer to the time but for now there is little to prohibit any outdoor activities being able to take place without any specific weather related weather problems intervening and this includes the Easter period. It's just the high ground of NW Britain which could well see saturated conditions developing under the strong Westerly flow next week with high rainfall totals over the mountains for a time before the cooler NW phase of weather later improves conditions here too with time.

Issued at 08:00 Wednesday March 25th 2015

Thank you for the output Martin.. Shall enjoy whatever turns up. Enough to in and out.

But if this MetO fax chart for Sunday along with offerings by the other models are anything to go by, it looks like being an excellent day for lenticular, stacking and lee wave cloud formations over the UK. It looks like lasting onto Monday before high pressure (hopefully) ridges in from the south to break down that long-fetch westerly airflow.




Those living over the middle part of the UK will do well to keep cameras fully charged up.

An unfortunate situation for the UK at the moment in terms of the Atlantic SSTs; there's an area of negative anomalies to the west large enough to expect that air reaching the UK from due west and even to some extent southwest is not being 'warmed' as much as usual along the way over. March has until recently been dominated more by northerly and easterly winds, so we haven't really been affected by it much. Now, we have seen the westerlies return, yet temperatures have still struggled to reach average values.

So this is basically a heads up that we may struggle to shake off that nip in the air a bit more than usual this year, unless of course we can import air from unusually low latitudes.

Worth noting though that as this stands, the eastern half of Europe is pretty well placed to experience a rapid build of heat over the coming 6-8 weeks, which would be similar to a number of recent years. It just needs a large, slow moving high to establish again... can this year buck the trend or will it play sheep?

So concludes today's late-hour speculation