The small low to the west of the UK has a bit too much momentum days 4-6 on the 12z GFS and UKMO runs, which is why there's such a rapid push of fresher air in from the west for the northern half of the UK.

GFS quickly takes that further south due to the mid-Atlantic ridge extending quite far north and bringing a brief but crucial northerly.

I can't see UKMO following that route, as the mid-Atlantic ridge is much flatter, instead we'd likely see that ridge building across from the southwest and probably retaining at least some of the hotter air across the southeast in particular. It's more like some of the GFS op runs of yesterday or the day before.

ECM and GEM offer us less progressive solutions in the 4-6 day range.

GEM goes on develop a notable LP to the SW that rapidly lifts out to the NW of the UK, high pressure building back in from Europe by day 8 but with lows zipping past the NW bringing spells of rain and at times cool temperatures there, drier toward the SE and on the warm side. The potential is there for the warmth to build back north again beyond day 10, if the jet stream relaxes a bit.

ECM is the pick of the bunch tonight as far as the op runs go, with that less progressive low also managing to avoid engaging with the Iberian Low (which is the issue on the GEM run), allowing the plume to only gradually destabilise across the UK - a dream run for those who like hot, humid weather with some energetic thunderstorms cropping up and perhaps a strong import from Europe (no, not the tipple...).

As long as we manage the less progressive low days 4-6, then I actually see the GEM run as a fairly realistic example of the 'kind of what we wanted, but not really' situations we often end up with in the UK, with those in the southeast coming out with a far better impression than those in the northwest. One caveat though - the model often overdoes the jet stream and develops too many disturbances in westerly flows, so it's probably a bit pessimistic in terms of how much the European ridging is kept at bay.

ECM is the idealistic run in which we get lucky on at least two significant occasions. Fingers crossed eh? 

It's not often you see the 15*C Isotherm across the UK for four days running in the first half of June!

Move to Edinburgh. It's a dry sunny climate but hot humid nights or oppressive weather don't exist!

Same reason I can never understand why you would want to be freezing cold in winter? We all have our own tastes. 

Unrelated - I've just deleted a couple of plain stupid or trolling posts. 

FTR, I want both

Greed is a sin 

Want to quantify that? Fact is at this stage it looks pretty warm in the south from around late midweek onward. 

Please back your posts up with reason. It helps stop the sort of stupid posts I've had to delete earlier. 

Didn't I read somewhere in the past that when a high pressure set up does become established, it doesn't always "get it right" first time and it takes a couple of reloads to create the "holy grail" of warm spells in the summer season (much like the proper cold in the winter season). Looking at the latest GFS run, it appears to be trying to do that. High pressure setting in by this time next week, then a temporary trough-like set up after that before high pressure reloads itself thereafter and so on.

GEM-style interaction between the shallow Iberian low and the Atlantic low on the GFS 18z op run.

The aftermath is still a fairly pleasant weekend for the south with high teens temperatures but this is little better than average temperatures and the anomalies even turn a little negative further north.

A flatter mid-Atlantic high leads to a better outlook for days 8-10 compared to the 12z, but it's little compensation for having the plume reduced to a single day that occurs just before the weekend rather than on it.

Hopefully this interaction of lows is a red herring with ECM (and to a lesser extent UKMO) having the right idea in keeping the two features separate.

Tomorrow will probably tell us one way or the other. Tense times.

So's onanism, but I care not.

Hoping to be able to go ahead with the "grand ceremonial opening of my swimming pool for the 2015 Summer Season" (cough) on Saturday.  Looking questionable as to whether there will be any sun.  UKMO, though,  appears to have gone from zero to hero...

ECM not as hot as yesterday but still a good run especially for the South. It hasn't been at its best recently it has to be said with Jam tmrw charts. 

Lol at people panicking. Still looks very good overall to me. Calm it 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=934

Thats quite a drop down after 6th

No not around for long.

More a generally warmth I would reckon, and certainly an improvement from recently.

The ECM ensemble Mean looks pleasant enough for most. Looks like a prolonged warmish sunny spell away from the NW. No sustained heat though.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1441.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.html

Also been the wettest May on record and just a few mm away at Drumburgh

Central heating off for a few weeks now, just an extra fleece instead.

Met Office confident of a warmer than average spell of weather on the way. I personally dont want it to warm, cant sleep, no air con and no pool to dip into 21c is enough plus a few thunderstorms.

Yes, the mean data definitely look better, although I fear they smooth/average out lots of the little features which would make things more unsettled. Still, as you say they are pleasant enough at a glance.

Indeed