HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY JUNE 23RD 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will cover Southern Britain with a warm front crossing East and NE over NW Britain tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and bright weather but somewhat more unsettled interludes too with some showers in places especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow across the UK breaking up over the next few days before settling in a strong for the time of year West to East motion across the UK from late this week. It then backs to a South to North flow for a time later next week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows  a set pattern in the next week with several days of warm and fine weather interrupted on several occasions by a trough of Low pressure crossing East over the UK bringing a spell of rain followed by fresher air on a westerly breeze. Then later next week things turn more generally changeable and cooler with rain or showers at times for most as Low pressure moves in close to or over the UK from the West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run follows the trend of the operational in full this morning and though day to day differences in synoptics are notable next week the message of a lot of fine weather with just brief cooler weather following several bands of rain and then more generally changeable conditions thereafter is very much the message from GFS this morning.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today indicate High pressure out to the SW with a ridge slightly further away than recently, sufficiently so to allow fronts to cross from the West or NW at times.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure to the South and SE of the UK with several days of fine and warm or very warm weather in the SE for a time before fresher and cooler conditions following a cold front passes over on Friday. Then with High pressure to the South and Low to the NW a SW flow will carry rain at times to the North and West with better conditions in the South and East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts mirror the raw data pretty well this morning with High pressure always closest to the South but with occasional fronts crossing from the West each bringing thicker cloud and occasional rain especially in the North and West.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows Low pressure areas crossing the North with a Westerly flow for all areas from the weekend with rain at times especially in the North. The South flirts with warm and dry weather at times and as next week progresses the model shows hot air wafting North close to the SE and at the same time Low pressure to the West of the UK pushing East into the humid air and sparking some thundery rain or storms late in the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a Westerly flow too at the weekend with some rain at times towards the North with very little further South. Then as we move into next week there seems a desire to slacken the pattern while maintaining a light SW drift. With warm and humid air close to the South some thundery showers are indicated by the middle of next week almost anywhere.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning is very supportive of West or SW winds blowing across the UK for much of the period covered by this morning's run. While warm or hot and humid air is never far away from the South and SE it is for the most parts kept the other side of the channel with the UK under the influence of Low pressure to the North and NW with occasional rain and showers almost anywhere at times but precious little for much of the time across the South and SE excepting the risk of an isolated thunderstorm or two if any troughs from the West engage the hot air to the SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure out to the West and NW with a slack SW flow likely across the British Isles. In such a pattern the South and East would continue to see the driest and warmest conditions with the North and West at risk of rain or showers at times

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends today show a weak Westerly or SW flow across the UK longer term.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKMO at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.5 too. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 85.8 pts with GFS at 83.1 pts and UKMO at 81.5 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.9 over 45.6. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 32.3 pts to 22.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS We lie on the edge of some true Summer weather over the next few weeks. The European continent is expected to warm up big time in the coming days as an Atlantic depression to the NW of the UK pumps up some very warm air from Spain across most European nations. For the UK we lie right on the periphery of this but far enough away to not benefit from the very highest temperatures that they look like receiving. Instead we will have to put up with a warm SW feed delivering plenty of humid, fine and bright weather in the South and East while the North and West are shown to stay far more changeable and cooler with rain at times. There will of course be an ebb and flow in these conditions with the hot air to the SE possibly making it into the SE at times and if that happes at the same time as a trough feeds in from the unsettled NW some electrical storms could occur very locally. This is hinted at by some output later next week. Nevertheless, it looks unlikely that High pressure will conquer a rejuvenated Jet flow across the UK enough to spread the hottest air far into the UK before it gets pushed back towards the SE again. So as it stands this morning it's a case of so near and yet so far for big time heat but don't despair there is nothing unpleasant or threatening in the charts this morning which means a lot of fine June and early July weather looks likely with the odd shower or outbreak of rain always possible but as usual for this time of year, mostly in the NW.

Next update from 08:00 Wednesday June 24th 2015

ECM doesn't appear to think there will be much of a plume. It has the remains of TS Bill slowly moving eastwards over the NW of the UK during next week eventually putting the whole country back into fresher atlantic air.

I'm so glad that we decided to spend the extra money and book our 2 week family holiday in the Balearics this summer rather than Cornwall.

If that Plume just graze's us again I think there's a few people on my FB page that might throw themselves in the Atlantic! 

Never mind, the real deal is out there in FI ;)

Melted strawberry jam tomorrow....

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3842.gif

Here's today's video update;

Possible Spanish Plume Next Week

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Here come's Summer? A lot of caution needed on this one!

whinge, whinge, bloody whinge. 

Incredulously the outlook just keeps getting worse and worse. Now this wretched intolerable permacast looks like remaining for the rest of the month with rain every day, below average temperatures every day and wind from the very worst direction of SE. It's unreal.

This is not as bad as 2012. It's worse. The second half of June could see as little as 15-20 hours sun. It's horrific beyond belief

What we have to put up with these days truly defies description

I take it that's the 'royal' we?

To be fair it's very mediocre down here IMO. Not horrendous but not good.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.....

Richard, a genuine suggestion here: Go and find yourself a hobby that is more to your satisfaction than weather watching! It's clearly doesn't agree with you.

GEM has the 20c 850 isotherm over the UK for three days solid on its 12z. I understand this scenario is extremely unlikely, and the whole plume will probably miss us as per GFS, but even at that range I can't remember seeing the 20c iso over the UK for more than about 6 hours, and usually it just grazes the SE corner (and then inevitably it doesn't materialise anyway).

Some of the GFS ENS have been showing equally impressive runs recently too. No less than 5 on the 06Z had the 20c line hitting London at some point in the run, some of those for several days. Wherever actually ends up under that plume really is going to bake. 

To be fair David his post is not really far off the reality for parts of the North. 

I do have a hunch that things will improve a couple of weeks - whether that is in some form of plume or not who knows. It is likely to be better than tomorrow's forecast max of 10°C here!

Ive found JMA to be the best model this month.  Its currently predicting some very warm weather in week 2.  One to watch to see if it holds into the 3 day time frame.  Here's a flavour at day 7:

Thank goodness imby it has not been as bad as some of the past few summers. Not brilliant this month at all - but just about passable.

But it sure would be good to have a few weeks of weather whereby I can get a T shirt on and dare I say it put a pair of shorts on as well - and I need 27C to feel comfortable enough to get a pair of shorts on.

Sorry to go OT.

:-)

Hi Michael

I know what you mean to be fair. I was on holiday in the central Highlands (stayed in Kingussie near Aviemore) during the first week of this month, and the weather was as poor as I've known it in nearly 10 years of holidaying in that neck of the woods in the summer. Only had 1 mostly dry day in the whole week and it was never overly warm. Really just a continuation of May's rubbish weather.

Back on topic: There have been subtle hints from the FI section of a few GFS runs that things may well get better once we get past early July, whether these hints are built upon into something more meaningful as the time gets nearer, we'll just have to wait and see. That said, the MetO's medium range outlook in the last few days has been suggesting a more general improvement as we head towards mid-July. There are a couple of summers from my childhood that I remember as starting with cool & unsettled Junes, but then saw much better weather during July & August; 1990 and 1991. All is not lost by any means.

The EPS continues to show a near-normal temperature outlook being the most likely option, however there remains a smallish but noteworthy chance of some hot or very hot conditions:

http://oi57.tinypic.com/2rcbe50.jpg

Around 1/8 by the end, I'd say.

Agreed.

Using the same set of ensembles for comparison based on the 0z GFS run again it is fair to say that a noteworthy spell of hot weather has been reduced big style. Gone are many of the 15c-20c 850Hpa temps of yesterday.

I'm getting used to this sort of thing sadly.

Both this mornings GFS and ECM Operationals are fantastic with a ridge to the east of the UK drawing in hot air from Europe across the whole Country. The +168 chart from both models is very similar.

IMO this is the best chance we have had for widespread warmth this summer although it is on the fringes of FI.

Still this mornings Operationals for next week are sensational.

Andy

Nice output this morning with the ECM going scorchio next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.html

Good lord, ECM has 20C 850pha temps reaching Scotland.  Now that would be a record breaker.

indeed for me the output this morning is very good for very warm/hot weather ECM is stunning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html