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Russwirral
06 November 2015 11:06:19
Polar Low
06 November 2015 11:14:07

If we could get to here? i would be pleased might be some interesting members on that run


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=0&carte=1


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=5&carte=1


looks like SK update is not out of the question 


 

Charmhills
06 November 2015 11:32:12

A lovely Artic northerly you can't beat it for fresh crisp air and sunshine if you can't have snow showers that is but some nice air frosts.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Hendon Snowman
06 November 2015 12:08:54


 


I'm not seeing much hype-casting on this channel. Most people here seem to expecting a mild or very mild winter with a chance of cold snaps towards the end?


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Very Mild sadly, looks like the clusters and the heydays of 2009/2010 are truly well behind us, as the USA takes all the brutal cold, looks like the polar vortex is about to start roaring

Polar Low
06 November 2015 12:19:46

Many members smelling the Gravy lovely moments from a quite a few of her members


wind of change or fools paradise??? 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=15&ech=300&mode=0&carte=1


Image result for ten by craig on come dancing


for the effort 

Russwirral
06 November 2015 12:28:59


Many members smelling the Gravy lovely moments from a quite a few of her members


wind of change or fools paradise??? 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=15&ech=300&mode=0&carte=1


Image result for ten by craig on come dancing


for the effort 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


 


I dont think ive ever seen the atlantic that quiet before.  


Retron
06 November 2015 12:35:58
The 0z ECM control shows a NNW'ly blast at 240, followed by a high which topples very readily into mainland Europe, leading to WSW'lies again for the UK.
Leysdown, north Kent
JOHN NI
06 November 2015 12:57:24

6z FI is delightful.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


....not surprisingly the 06Z operational is pretty much at the bottom of the pile in terms of coldness in comparison to the ensemble for FI.


John.
The orange County of Armagh.
Russwirral
06 November 2015 13:01:11


 


....not surprisingly the 06Z operational is pretty much at the bottom of the pile in terms of coldness in comparison to the ensemble for FI.


Originally Posted by: JOHN NI 


 


aye just noticed that... still - there does seem to be alot of runs below the 0*c mark - with a few flirting with the -5*c mark.  With that in mind - there does seem to be a growing consensus of a chilly 2nd half to November in the making.


bledur
06 November 2015 14:34:50

Temperatures returning to normal in about 10 days Less rain too.


Slideshow image

Solar Cycles
06 November 2015 16:18:19

Over on t'other site Ian Ferguson's got them all worked up with the news that clusters are now showing up on MOGREPS for something possibly chiller mid month with either a PM or AM airflow, this still remains an outside chance but nonetheless it's a step forward from the previous 48 hours. All hail the GFS and now the number one model of choice.

GlenH
06 November 2015 16:42:49
GFS 12z continues the theme with a stronger Greenland high than the 06z by 222h.
Russwirral
06 November 2015 17:01:45
Ally Pally Snowman
06 November 2015 17:07:35

No UK cold this time from GFS but massive GH yet  again . Meto and ecm maybe playing catch up. Something could be brewing 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=300&mode=0&carte=1


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Maunder Minimum
06 November 2015 19:07:09


No UK cold this time from GFS but massive GH yet  again . Meto and ecm maybe playing catch up. Something could be brewing 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=300&mode=0&carte=1


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


GFS keeps posting a signal about the NAO tanking and as we have stated oftentimes before, the GFS is good at picking up future trends.


I don't care if those charts don't show UK cold .... yet! They scream massive potential!


New world order coming.
Ally Pally Snowman
06 November 2015 19:09:30

The ECM getting the idea of a massive GReenland High. Kudos to GFS if it comes off.


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
06 November 2015 19:12:56


 


GFS keeps posting a signal about the NAO tanking and as we have stated oftentimes before, the GFS is good at picking up future trends.


I don't care if those charts don't show UK cold .... yet! They scream massive potential!


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 


Yes HUGE potential if it comes off and massive kudos to GFS as the ECM 32dayer and long term Meto didn't pick it up.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Chunky Pea
06 November 2015 19:57:18


The ECM getting the idea of a massive GReenland High. Kudos to GFS if it comes off.


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


Going to be interesting to watch. The ECM Ens (going by 00z run) out to 15 days doesn't make much of this high at all, but does show Atlantic ridge potential for a time before it is toppled again beyond day 10. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Saint Snow
06 November 2015 19:58:18

I've got one eyebrow semi-raised.


 


[please, please, please, please, please let's get another Dec 10  ]



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Tim A
06 November 2015 20:26:06
I would take just a repeat of the first cold spell of Nov/ Dec 2010. What made the month so special and such a 1 off was that it was followed by another intense cold spell after the mild blip.

However I failed to get sucked in by gfs . If the met office monthly forecast mentions 'turning much colder later ' then I will get interested.
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Solar Cycles
06 November 2015 20:36:26

I would take just a repeat of the first cold spell of Nov/ Dec 2010. What made the month so special and such a 1 off was that it was followed by another intense cold spell after the mild blip.

However I failed to get sucked in by gfs . If the met office monthly forecast mentions 'turning much colder later ' then I will get interested.

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

They're monitoring the situation as we speak.😱

sizzle
06 November 2015 21:04:33

I for one wont knock the GFS model after the 2009/2010 edition

Chiltern Blizzard
06 November 2015 22:41:37
Optimism in spades! A hint of a GH at t240+, one that doesn't even bring cold conditions, and hope rises for a December 2010 repeat!
Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Russwirral
06 November 2015 22:50:22
Some decent building blocks on offer, I wouldnt say massively different from previous runs.

What is consistent though is HP over Greenland, LP over norther Scandinavia... and worryingly - HP over the med. Which forces any colder air either westwards to canada (probably the eventual scenario) or diverts a toppling northerly into Poland. We really need to see a LP setup shop over italy and France.
Patrick01
06 November 2015 23:05:30

Setup seems weaker on this run, the GH is weak and propped up by an Atlantic high in FI which would likely result in a toppler. TBH that's a fairly standard November cold snap and I wouldn't turn my nose up at that. It could also kick start the Scottish ski season potentially 

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