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Arbroath 1320
24 December 2015 23:03:25
Something's brewing maybe?
GGTTH
Quantum
24 December 2015 23:03:45

In the shorter term this is definitely one to watch.


snowy


Some unusually cold air on the back of that, I don't have much experience of cold occlusions producing all that much snow (unlike warm occlusions) but the GFS certainly sees potential in this. 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Bertwhistle
24 December 2015 23:06:22


In the shorter term this is definitely one to watch.


snowy


Some unusually cold air on the back of that, I don't have much experience of cold occlusions producing all that much snow (unlike warm occlusions) but the GFS certainly sees potential in this. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Can you show the 850s Q so we know how cold the unusually cold is? Always hard to judge deep LP westerly temps from the 500.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
nsrobins
24 December 2015 23:07:04

A very happy Christmas to all you mad compulsive model watchers.


My advice is to switch off, engage in the day tomorrow and come back refreshed to see what Boxing Day has to offer.


(pause)


(reflect)


(take another look at one of THE op runs of all time)


OK, see y'all in the morning 🤓😘❄️

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gooner
24 December 2015 23:07:37

There was never any chance of an easterly - we need to accept that we are heading for the warmest and wettest (in the NW) winter ever.


^^^^^^^^


From Shropshire Mel c or whatever her / his name was/is


It just shows how stupid it is to make this sort of comment , now of course what the GFS has churned out today does start to get everyone thinking maybe we really havent a clue about the weather lol


 But let's be honest the form horse is nearly always the Atlantic but the favourite suddenly has a serious challenger.


Of course once the bookies favourite gets in front again Shropshire could well reappear

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
24 December 2015 23:08:58

I wonder how many people who weren't going to bother looking at the charts in the morning have now changed their minds lol


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Bertwhistle
24 December 2015 23:12:31


There was never any chance of an easterly - we need to accept that we are heading for the warmest and wettest (in the NW) winter ever.


^^^^^^^^


From Shropshire Mel c or whatever her / his name was/is


It just shows how stupid it is to make this sort of comment , now of course what the GFS has churned out today does start to get everyone thinking. Let's be honest the form horse is nearly always the Atlantic but the favourite suddenly has a serious challenger.


Of course once the bookies favourite gets in front again Shropshire could well reappear


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Yes, completely exciting; I did have a dream several days ago which Saint attributed to my nocturnal incontinence (prospects thread) citing snow for many at the start of the school term; but then again I went for 5.9C in the prediction game! Hee hee. Merry Christmas all!

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
David M Porter
24 December 2015 23:13:13


Hmmm.  Where's our friend "Shropshire" Melanie gone? 


Missing data? If not, based on this run I think we can say in true Andy Woodcock style Autumn is over.


Merry Christmas all. This will verify 100% to deny me another winter wonderland. Don't know why i decided to go to Australia for the first time since December 2010..... 😂😂😂


Also was in Australia January 1987, February 1991 AND December 1995. I kid you not. 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


How long are you going to Oz for, Kieren? At least there you'll be able to more than make up for the abysmal luck of sunshine there's been in recent weeks in this country.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
KevBrads1
24 December 2015 23:15:02

The way the weather has behaved in the last few years, it is about possible that it could pull off something as ridiculous as what very recent GFS charts have been showing.

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Stormchaser
24 December 2015 23:15:20
So much or an evening away from the MOD!

I suspect the fax that GFS is far more amplified with the tropical convection into phase 7 than ECM has a lot to do with their disagreement oth respect to the angle of WAA toward year's end and consequences later in time.

Lately the convection had been exceeding the amplification forecast by even GFS at times so that's an argument for ECM being the less likely outcome. May as well take that optimistic stance this evening 🙂
If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Sinky1970
24 December 2015 23:17:03
Santa may of had too much brandy looking at these charts, i would wait another 7 days or so, before i it would be worth believing my eyes.
David M Porter
24 December 2015 23:17:09

I'll tell you one thing folks: If, and it is a heck of a big "if", that ECM 18z run were to verify, I suspect that a fair amount of humble pie, as well as turkey, will be eaten by some people over the coming couple of weeks!

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Chiltern Blizzard
24 December 2015 23:20:28


Hmmm.  Where's our friend "Shropshire" Melanie gone? 


Missing data? If not, based on this run I think we can say in true Andy Woodcock style Autumn is over.


Merry Christmas all. This will verify 100% to deny me another winter wonderland. Don't know why i decided to go to Australia for the first time since December 2010..... 😂😂😂


Also was in Australia January 1987, February 1991 AND December 1995. I kid you not. 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


no disrespect intended, but could you bugger off to Oz from   December to February every year?

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
moomin75
24 December 2015 23:21:14


 


How long are you going to Oz for, Kieren? At least there you'll be able to more than make up for the abysmal luck of sunshine there's been in recent weeks in this country.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Six weeks mate. Cousins wedding and other family to see.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Quantum
24 December 2015 23:22:01

So much or an evening away from the MOD!

I suspect the fax that GFS is far more amplified with the tropical convection into phase 7 than ECM has a lot to do with their disagreement oth respect to the angle of WAA toward year's end and consequences later in time.

Lately the convection had been exceeding the amplification forecast by even GFS at times so that's an argument for ECM being the less likely outcome. May as well take that optimistic stance this evening :)

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


I'm interested to understand how you know this Stormchaser?


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
moomin75
24 December 2015 23:22:41


 


no disrespect intended, but could you bugger off to Oz from   December to February every year?


Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 

😂😂😂 I reckon that would guarantee the next ice age in Great Britain.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Quantum
24 December 2015 23:25:45


I'll tell you one thing folks: If, and it is a heck of a big "if", that ECM 18z run were to verify, I suspect that a fair amount of humble pie, as well as turkey, will be eaten by some people over the coming couple of weeks!


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Yes but imagine how insufferably self-congratulatory I will be if it does! 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Solar Cycles
24 December 2015 23:26:32
I'm not convinced that the models have got a grip on this evolving situation just yet and we could easily end up on the wrong side of the block with the only significant difference to the here and now being the rain will be colder. Whatever the outcome of the next 10 days as long as we continue to see WAA being pumped northwards and the block to our east remain in situ then it's only a matter of time before we tap into some of that potential.
Polar Low
24 December 2015 23:32:01

 Exactly Its very early days many just power on so to speak as I quoted to cc


A little less support on those I feel


http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=168


 


I'm not convinced that the models have got a grip on this evolving situation just yet and we could easily end up on the wrong side of the block with the only significant difference to the here and now being the rain will be colder. Whatever the outcome of the next 10 days as long as we continue to see WAA being pumped northwards and the block to our east remain in situ then it's only a matter of time before we tap into some of that potential.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Stormchaser
24 December 2015 23:32:47


 


I'm interested to understand how you know this Stormchaser?


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


Literally just tracking the MJO forecasts day to day against the observations. A reasonable GUIs for the current Kelvin Wave activity :)


 


to be honest its more the propagation that's been beyond the model projections but that too suggests the higher amp. Phase 7 is favoured IMO

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Solar Cycles
24 December 2015 23:35:48


 Exactly Its very early days many just power on so to speak as I quoted to cc


A little less support on those I feel


http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=168


 


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Yes the latest EC32 is having none of it  apparently and still sees a mobile westerly regime although I'm not sure that will be the case either for much longer. Anyway exciting stuff watching this unfold but I for one wouldn't be to disheartened if it goes the way of the pear just as long as what I posted above remains.

Quantum
24 December 2015 23:39:14


 


 


Literally just tracking the MJO forecasts day to day against the observations. A reasonable GUIs for the current Kelvin Wave activity :)


 


to be honest its more the propagation that's been beyond the model projections but that too suggests the higher amp. Phase 7 is favoured IMO


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


Do you know why the ECM is underestimating this? It seems odd that this sort of thing would be happening, call me a little skeptical!


 


I really hope you are onto something though.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Arcus
24 December 2015 23:39:34
Hmmm. The very long odds may be shortening somewhat. Those that have seen these situations before over the past 15 years know that the models will ebb and flow given the progged "immovable object" of the Scandi block and the "irresistible force" of the Atlantic lows. Very cold set-ups can evolve very quickly from these situations on the back of very mild precursors (cf Kev's "Where Did That Easterly Come From" threads), and equally they have been quashed in their nascent state. All in all, much more interesting model viewing at least.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
tallyho_83
24 December 2015 23:40:42

Is it me or is this a dramatic change in our weather which could be heading in from the east??

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif

If so will be the first and best all Winter so far!?


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Polar Low
24 December 2015 23:47:59

As Peter mentioned earlier this evening very uncertain times even at t120 for ecm so we will have to wait a while I feel with any if new pattern emerges I would love to say something different but I cant it would be untrue


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0&type=2&archive=0


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0&type=2&archive=0


 



 

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