Lol - what an outlier - some level headedness required tonight... on all nights too

Same thing happened on the 6z

Why did I ask Santa for a BBQ this Christmas and not a sledge! 

The GFS has stolen Santa's sherry  so will probably end up with a canoe. 

If you have to have an outlier run, wouldn't you rather it be the OP? 

Darren will know

A stonking outlier it might be, but we'll be singing it's praises when the ensembles catch up with it tomorrow 😉

Morning Dave 😘 it was always the understanding that the OP was run on a higher resolution that the suite in the longer range but I don't think that's the case anymore.

Could end up being a trendsetter.

Merry Christmas all!

Yes, it makes a difference in that there's higher resolution and unperturbed and thus more likely to be correct - but given that the correlation by day 10 of the op run is already hovering around 50%, beyond then it'll just get lower and lower. Or to put it another way, the op run is slightly better than the ensemble members but at that range it's still really only useful as a bit of fun!

FWIW there were approximately 19% fewer plane observations fed into the models on yesterday's 12z run, but the ship/synop data was the same as ever. No stats are available for the 18z run as yet.

Merry Christmas everyone.

Ecm definitely moving torwards GFS. No easterly yet but by day 10 it's looking very good long term. Vortex in tatters.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh2401.html

From what I can see in front of me there will be a lot less plane observations fed in from today! The NAT looks very quiet...

Good morning and Merry Christmas!

Although a week off, this chart is priceless.  It shows warm upper air advected well into the Arctic in the region of Franz Joseph Land,(something like 80 N) Novaya Zemyla and Spitzbergen.  Whilst this is no guarantee of cold for the UK down the line, it does mean easternmost Europe should receive a compensatory plunge of frigid dense polar air which could stagnate and migrate westwards later.  Very interesting times.

have a very happy MILD Christmas guys, snow for the new year ?

Up here at least there seems to be more support for a chilly outlook than there was on the 18z ensemble data (not that that would have been difficult!)

http://meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3

There seems to be an increasingly strong signal for weather from an easterly quarter. Whether it materialises or brings anything wintry is another issue. Either way a very happy Chrostmas and New Year to you all.

P.S. Not an especially mild Christmas here - about 10 degrees cooler than 2011 

A very happy Christmas to everyone.

Santa has forgotten the snow this year, as usual, but at least has delivered some interesting charts.

The ECM 00z ensemble mean for T+240 is markedly different to yesterday's 12z and shows good suport for a block to our east:

The level of uncertainty in the same area is huge and highlights the uncertainty over position and ntensity of any block, from something potentially more influential for us to nothing at all.

Here's today's 0z ECM ensemble output. Good signs of a cooldown to nearer normal in the new year!

Even a chance of an air frost once we get to the New Year!  Who'd have thought it possible?

Happy Christmas, Darren.  Keep the useful insights coming.

For amusement purposes have a look at perturbation 11 from the 00z GFS...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres

It looks rather more innocuous on the charts but that's quite a cold pool.

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015122500/gensnh-11-0-336.png

Merry Xmas all

Yesterday's ECM 12z for 1 Jan, with its pleasing yellows over Novaya Zemlya:

This morning's 00z ECM for 1 Jan, and, as noted by Whether Idle, the yellows are still there, and enhanced, if anything:

Consistency, going in the right direction for cold, and not at 240 hrs just for once.

Happy Christmas, everyone!