Merry Xmas campers!

Finally, there seem to be some more interesting model runs appearing now, after weeks of both tedious output and weather together. Whether or not the models are really onto a potential pattern change or they are leading us up the garden path remains to be seen for now, but interesting viewing all the same.

ECM still not interested in any Easterly as per ECM32 update yesterday, so until that smells the coffee I would take what the GFS shows with a huge pinch of salt as we've all been led up the garden path before with these set ups. Having said all that as long as the block remains in situ and WAA continues to be pumped Polewards from both sides the PV will come under attack in a pincer movement and thus be banished for eternity, well at least for a few weeks.😁

Merry Xmas to all and may you all have a prosperous but more importantly healthy New Year.

Happy Christmas everybody. Looking forward to a New Year crippling easterly that will paralyse the country in time for the return to work in early January. Now for a beer. 

So it's all change then according to the 06Z? OK good when it lasted !!

Happy Xmas everyone.

  The broad pattern looks much the same to me?   Huge upper high and accompanying surface high away to the east blocking the Atlantic.  The detail at 10 days out isn't that significant, it's the overall pattern that's more interesting.

tally, this is just the scenario I feared when I brought this up yesterday, stalled fronts and slow moving rainfall could become a real problem. One to watch 

Still shaping up to be much the same as the 00z

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015122506/gfsnh-0-264.png?6

Spot on and Happy Christmas 

It certainly looks like a pattern change. It will be interesting to see what the 200hr+ charts on the ECM op run look like in a day or two

Here's another 06z op run FI chart for people's viewing pleasure. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2881.gif 

Wow even the ECM is starting to come on board.

A recurring theme happening here. 

Yep, the detail is unimportant for now. That looks a massive beast of high. Just a matter of time before it influences our weather.

Merry Christmas everyone. Have a cracking day!

Yes, the New Year could produce something of interest for coldies.  All the WAA into polar regions HAS to have a compensatory effect of N-S CAA.

I hope again that this insanely warm December can sow the seeds of a cold spell in the New Year.  At least there is the prospect of some seasonal temperatures, which will be something of a novelty.

There's a long way to go before I show interest since everything is in deep fi.

Get good agreement by 144hs and less than.............

Did they really need all those lights on?! Maybe they caused the current snow drought?....

LOL I thought the same. Selfish predecessors 

Increasingly strong signal now for cold. More of the same on the 6Z parallel.

Met O has changed its tune somewhat and appears to be moving towards are more (edit 1) blocked  solution.  Certainly a robust block even if its not of great UK influence.  A step in the right direction. UKMO 144...could be good down the line... edit 2 .better then the 12z GFS anyhow....