That's interesting.  It's showing a rather better defined upper high than the GFS evolution at the same point.

GFS 12z not delivering the same intensity of upper high and not driving it as far north as before.

Time to cite the reduced amount of data, perhaps....

Wed 6yh and Thu 7th appear to be the days to watch

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=snow;sess= 

12Z not playing ball but the destruction of the polar votex continues. 

I think the outlook for January is very positive

That in itself sounds encouraging, Q. I very much hope you are ultimately proved right with your thoughts here wrt January. I know that Moomin saw the potential for this month to be exceptionally mild from quite a way off (despite a fair amount of criticism from me and others!) and he hasn't been off the mark at all there, so let's hope you are similarly vindicated.

Interestingly enough I note that when the tropospheric (500) polar vortex is stronger (from run to run) the stratospheric polar vortex tends to be weaker. It seems as if is just a matter of where the 'energy' is going, but either way the polar vortex has been under attack for weeks now and is projected to be under attack for weeks more. 

Certainly a change is on the way from what we have been experiencing , those writing off the first half of January were a bit premature I'd say.  Not saying we will get deep drifts but at least its something 'new' to look at

Poor GFS but the GEM is back on board.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.html

Just some frost would do for a start anything other than this unrelenting damp mild grey shiteness

Ensemble watch 300hr

Zonal (LP to north): ||||5

HP near UK (SErly): |||

LP close to UK (cold): ||||5 ||| 

LP close to UK (zonal): ||

Scandi HP (Erly): |

N atlantic high (Nthly): |

Greenland high (NErly): |

Temp Summary

V Cold: 3

Cold: 11

Normal: 2

Mild: 5

Very Mild: 0

Key

Very cold: <3C generally, ~0C in the north. Cold enough for snow everywhere except possibly SW

Cold: 2-4C in the north, 5-7C in the south. Cold enough for snow in the north, and to higher ground further south

Normal: 5-9C generally. Cold enough for hill snow in the north

Mild: 7-11C generally. Not cold enough for snow.

Very mild: Widespread double figures.

Definite bias towards cold on the ensembles.

What's interesting to me is the fact that there have been a number of charts like this churned out. Clearly they're most unlikely to actually come off, but what a breath of fresh air it is to see the likes of this, compared to the month of mild dross we've just endured.

I have a good feeling about this.

ECM WAA-ing it right up there, and in the semi reliable too@120hrs

Edit

IIRC very similar to the UKMO at the same time....@144:

With a bit of luck, this could be a Christmas present from the ECM @ 240, or perhaps a lump of coal...here's the picture @168

I think we all know what happens next. A 'blue' south easterly.

@ 192 (deep in FI, of course) the ECM is looking hot! Are the  floodgates to the east opening to the advancing cold?

Whatever happens next the trend is good and the similarity between UKMO and ECM @ 144 is good combined with the sustained S-N WAA in the reliable.  Model watching is fun again, even if its 12c and drizzly out there, AGAIN.

EDIT .. and @216:

ECM 192. Its coming I'll tell ya .

That is a very snowy chart

A widespread 10cm+ event if that comes off.

Cant grumble

Indeed Q..away from the far SW. 

Very interesting ECM 12z so far. That said, I only hope it hasn't been in the pub all afternoon!

ECM 240 hrs OMG 

Not sure it's a widespread snow event it's very close to one though. An excellent run nonetheless .