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Sinky1970
Tuesday, February 16, 2016 9:30:42 PM
Any snowfall has been erased from my local bbc forecast, also the the rainfall is also set to stop 3 hours earlier than previously forecast. Makes a bit of a joke about making weather warnings for this area.
LeedsLad123
Tuesday, February 16, 2016 9:35:33 PM


 


 


Yes it has progressively got less and less snowy over the last two or three runs. The gradual warming of the climate has just about put paid to these "marginal" set-ups delivering anything. 30 years ago we might have been in business.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


We had a marginal set up deliver back in January - and last year, on more than one occasion. 


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Gusty
Tuesday, February 16, 2016 9:44:25 PM

I don't believe it ! Has the snow risk been downgraded again ? 


Last night I was all set to drive to The Chilterns with the wife and kids to play in 10cm.


To be honest I'm completely numb to all the disappointments now though.


Its laughable 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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Rob K
Tuesday, February 16, 2016 10:00:33 PM


I don't believe it ! Has the snow risk been downgraded again ? 


Last night I was all set to drive to The Chilterns with the wife and kids to play in 10cm.


To be honest I'm completely numb to all the disappointments now though.


Its laughable 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


10cm? I don't think that was ever on the cards even before the downgrade. Greatest "snow depth" I saw quoted on the charts was 3cm for the most favoured spots in the south.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gusty
Tuesday, February 16, 2016 10:10:49 PM


 


10cm? I don't think that was ever on the cards even before the downgrade. Greatest "snow depth" I saw quoted on the charts was 3cm for the most favoured spots in the south.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


It was on the 12z yesterday Rob..It showed a general 6cm in SW Oxfordshire. SC quoted 10cm in some favoured spots. The inevitable downgrade kicked in from the 18z onwards. 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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Whether Idle
Tuesday, February 16, 2016 10:10:50 PM


I don't believe it ! Has the snow risk been downgraded again ? 


Last night I was all set to drive to The Chilterns with the wife and kids to play in 10cm.


To be honest I'm completely numb to all the disappointments now though.


Its laughable 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Stay up at Hawkinge for the SSEly before and Nwly after SE Kent snow-fest Steve


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gusty
Tuesday, February 16, 2016 10:16:24 PM


 Stay up at Hawkinge for the SSEly before and Nwly after SE Kent snow-fest Steve


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


A double whammy disappointment Phil ! 


Whats the betting the dry cold SSE'ly will stall precipitation west of here and as soon as the front is fully occluded and finally gets shoved eastwards the precipitation will have largely died out 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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Whether Idle
Tuesday, February 16, 2016 10:21:30 PM


 


A double whammy disappointment Phil ! 


Whats the betting the dry cold SSE'ly will stall precipitation west of here and as soon as the front is fully occluded and finally gets shoved eastwards the precipitation will have largely died out 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Steve, to mis-quote Bernard Breslaw from Carry on Up The Khyber "deny yourself nothing" as he gives advice to Sid James as he surveys  the hareem, the mantra is, and should be "expect for yourself nothing".


It works.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gusty
Tuesday, February 16, 2016 10:28:48 PM


 


Steve, to mis-quote Bernard Breslaw from Carry on Up The Khyber "deny yourself nothing" as he gives advice to Sid James as he surveys  the hareem, the mantra is, and should be "expect for yourself nothing".


It works.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


I will try Phil. I expected nothing from the Sunday night /Monday morning NE'ly debacle and actually woke up smiling on Monday morning as I gazed out at a clear blue sky and dry ground. 


Anyway..I'm at Dover Castle tomorrow..I shall give you a shout out from the turret. 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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Gooner
Tuesday, February 16, 2016 10:43:23 PM

From IF


I'd suggest quite the opposite: the parallel suite Euro4 and UKMO-GM both now generate little snow of note, so it all currently looks a bit less worrying. It's important to note that EC (which in the 00z run offered 5+cm of falling snow e.g. Wilts) has a known tendency to over-generate solid PPN and is thus considered unreliable re amounts being progged. So as it stands, unless there's a major shift back towards the more threatening outcome(s) we saw in some suites earlier today, I'd suspect the snow 'issue' will be gradually toned-down - at least somewhat - in public forecasts. That said, there remains around a 60-90 miles potential error margin E-W in areas that could yet see snow into central-southern England (encompassing from E Wales to E Anglia, and south-south east of those zones). Either way, this set-up will prove a tricky customer up to the wire.


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Jive Buddy
Tuesday, February 16, 2016 10:55:50 PM


 


I will try Phil. I expected nothing from the Sunday night /Monday morning NE'ly debacle and actually woke up smiling on Monday morning as I gazed out at a clear blue sky and dry ground. 


Anyway..I'm at Dover Castle tomorrow..I shall give you a shout out from the turret. 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


I was at Dover Castle the other day.There was a bloke running along the walls constantly swearing! Turns out he was suffering from turrets 


 


LL on BBC weather just now: "And if you live in East Kent, kiss goodbye to a second winter in a row, suckers!!"...or words to that effect 


I think this'll be the first time in my living memory that I've gone 2 back to back winters without seeing a single snowflake! 


It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
Zubzero
Tuesday, February 16, 2016 10:58:55 PM

All this over if there will be a spell of wet snow that will be gone as soon as the sun pop's out even if it had not been downgraded.


Got to laugh at how bad this Winter has been for snow.


Might see some snizzle imby, though id bet on the front has died out as soon as the cold air catches up 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016021618/gfs-2-42.png?18 

Crepuscular Ray
Wednesday, February 17, 2016 6:09:32 AM
Moderate snow. All surfaces covered
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
nsrobins
Wednesday, February 17, 2016 7:13:16 AM
For England - Lots of 'coulds' and 'mights' in the written and video forecasts, a sure sign these days that it won't!
E4 and WRF don't make much of the transition and given the trend these last few runs I'd say 'decent' snow is unlikely except in a few spots overnight.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Sinky1970
Wednesday, February 17, 2016 7:30:29 AM

I think today here is a no-go regards snow as i've never seen it fall at 4c before from a frontal system.The local bbc has it between 2 and 4 degrees, so very high ground only. Temp is slowly on the rise.

Crepuscular Ray
Wednesday, February 17, 2016 7:51:09 AM


Wee bit of snow again in Edinburgh this morning. This is from my flat at 80m amsl.


Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Gooner
Wednesday, February 17, 2016 8:00:27 AM

Rain/Snowfall EURO4 Th 18.02.2016 00 GMT


After seeing this I'm no longer hopeful


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Bertwhistle
Wednesday, February 17, 2016 8:04:06 AM


 


After seeing this I'm no longer hopeful


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Same here- just using the position of that frontal trough and the -5 upper line as a rough visual guide, they don't seem to get close together until it's too late.


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/00_21_mslp850.png?cb=320


Unless the air behind dries out quickly enough in heavy pptn for evaporative cooling to be significant??


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Bertwhistle
Wednesday, February 17, 2016 8:07:21 AM

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=886


Snow row for London back up to 11 but Cardiff and Brighton only 3 and Plymouth zero. I'm not going to even try to work out where Hampshire might be in that range.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
nsrobins
Wednesday, February 17, 2016 8:41:14 AM

Must be some residual cold air ahead of the line as I'm in Grantham this morning and it's sleeting here


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Sinky1970
Wednesday, February 17, 2016 9:38:06 AM
I'm surprised the Met Office haven't withdrawn those warnings regarding snow as it's pretty clear now it ain't gonna happen.
Saint Snow
Wednesday, February 17, 2016 9:49:15 AM

So we're all in the same boat, then?



The temp in MBY has been stuck at around 5.5c since about yesterday lunchtime. Nice... 


 


All eyes now turn to the next non-snowy non-event on Sunday. Oh Joy.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Zubzero
Wednesday, February 17, 2016 9:49:30 AM

I'm surprised the Met Office haven't withdrawn those warnings regarding snow as it's pretty clear now it ain't gonna happen.

Originally Posted by: Sinky1970 


Have you even read the warning and the assessment of it?

Sinky1970
Wednesday, February 17, 2016 10:19:51 AM


 


Have you even read the warning and the assessment of it?


Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


I have, it's for snow yes, but i don't think i've seen it fall when the temperature has been at 2 or 3 degrees above freezing at night. I have seen it loads of times, even today's temperature is on the up (higher than forecast). This warning was issued for the West Midlands Conurbation which i don't think has that much high ground.

Rob K
Wednesday, February 17, 2016 11:11:44 AM

I'm surprised the Met Office haven't withdrawn those warnings regarding snow as it's pretty clear now it ain't gonna happen.

Originally Posted by: Sinky1970 


They have subtly redrawn the boundary since yesterday, reducing the southern extent of the warning area.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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