I'm more optimistic than yesterday when we got 4cm.  If anything I think it looks less marginal. Met office forecast for 'Leeds' (configured to low elevation) even shows heavy snow and 1c late in the night . Latest bbc forecast shows a blob of white and talk of snow down to low levels late in night. 

Obviously could all change and get shifted further south but I think it looks very promising for now. 

Looking at the short range forecasts the coldest air is unusually just to the south of the depression track tomorrow morning

Really?

I should be in the sweet spot for this event but at 135 metres it's too marginal, for Cumbria this is a classic set up but with the air not cold enough ahead if the depression and the coldest air to the south of it I give up. I think we are feeling the effects of the very mild Arctic so the airflow from northern latitudes just isn't cold enough.

Sign of the times I suppose but this winter/spring really is crap when Synoptics like this fail to deliver a significant snow event on low ground in Northern Britain.

Andy

Yes, you can see it on all the model outputs at T+24, just look at the -5C line at 850 mb.

Latest Beeb forecast widely showing 2-5cms "predominantly" over high ground in Central northern england, with as much "10-20cms" over higher ground in the north midlands - an explicit mention of "places like buxton". 

It's a very marginal call this one, somewhere could hit the jackpot 

aye, and the place to hit the jackpot will most likely be Buxton.  Central and elevation located.

Yes looks well placed, I'm delighted for Steve Murr, according to the other side he is on holiday up there 

Perhaps some similarities with Boxing Day 2014, with rain to begin with then the colder air undercutting the PPN, but it's all very marginal for lower elevations. On that occasion the initial front moved some way further East than initially anticipated and I think the sweet spot ended up around Sheffield.

I think more prevalent are occasions where general snow is forecast, only for it to fall as sleet/rain away from favoured places with altitude.

I'm not expecting any snow - and I'm pining for the sort of synoptics seen in 2009, 2010 & 2013 where having snow fall was just a question of getting PPN, not trying to second guess what the PPN was going to be.

We got around 4/5cm from that - a very unexpected festive treat! (even if it did turn to rain from around 11pm, and was largely gone the following morning - barring the remains of the Yuletide snowmen)

On that day those that got snow, were those just on the colder north side.  The LP then drew cold air in from northern England, which at the time was near zero in some places.

On this occasion the cold air is actually to the south, and creates a dry zone.  The surrounding areas dont look to get that cold, (not subzero)

So the only chance us normal low lying folk will get from this, is if the cold air - as you say undercuts, which i doubt it will.

I've been comparing the radar with the NMM and there are some major differences.

Its difficult to show this in a single image but you can see here the radar has the precip further east. Anyway major differences:

1) Precipatation sleety over N ireland (NMM had rain)

2) More wintry showers over Ireland (and largelly of sleet and snow)

3) Precipatation further east in general

4) Slightly more sleet and snow than expected.

A slight change in the position of the low could have major consequences, in particular if the low is further north than some dry air could get wrapped into the centre which would raise the effective melting temperature (and mean snow rather than rain). 

I think this is the key, the 'dry sector' ahead of the cold front but behind the occluded front will lie just to the south of the precipatation, drawing the dry air in is important for snow conversion. Temperature is not the issue here, far more improtant are humidity and intensity. 

Rain turning to snow over the sea to the SW of scotland and over N ireland. This was not predicted by the short range models.

I suspect what is going on is this: the cold air in the west is undercutting more than expected.

Sure this degree of undercutting was not expected. Rapid snow conversion in progress.

Raintoday.co.uk but its premium

Things are definately getting interesting now. Radar turning largely gray which indicates snow just above the surface but not necessarily getting to the ground.