Solar, I just don't get excited by these cooler zonal phases when the next low bringing more wind and rain is only a day away.

Doc I did say for 'most' , meaning most areas, most of the general populous and most of those on TWO 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

I would suggest for most that the chairs are being put out in the saloon.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

They are talking more and more 'winter is over 'on the BBC local radio at least for the south and interestingly how windy wet and warm it has been over the last three months. The question mark is will February follow the trend or spring a surprise especially after mid month. The former observation is

likely to continue in my opinion seeing little serious change in the models for the foreseeable....

Originally Posted by: cultman1 

IF talking about SW

Latest UKMO assessment as follows:

- Current warming episode still expected to be minor

- Mixed model signals re SFC story early-mid Feb, but current preferred outcome is for (at least passing) colder phases from later next week and more especially during 2nd week Feb (longevity uncertain) with pattern amplified behind lows and ridging in Atlantic (as per EC Monthly & GloSea5)

- Stratospheric diagnostics indicate resumption of stronger zonal flow for a time from mid into 2nd half Feb

- A more mobile/unsettled outcome then returning for UK (EC Monthly also suggests W'ly return later Feb)

- GloSea5 continues as before to signal any more definite/major stratospheric warming is most likely late Feb-early March

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

What is the point of a SSW in early March! By the time it had an effect near the surface it would be Easter and would just bring us a cold, miserable spring with temperatures similar to what we have now. More eternal autumn!!

Andy

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 

True, I feel with a possible SSW early March and the recent El Nino a cold wet spring and possibly summer could be on the cards. That would be the final kick inbetween the legs after this winter. The joys of the British climate.

Originally Posted by: Fothergill 

IF talking about SW

Latest UKMO assessment as follows:

- Current warming episode still expected to be minor

- Mixed model signals re SFC story early-mid Feb, but current preferred outcome is for (at least passing) colder phases from later next week and more especially during 2nd week Feb (longevity uncertain) with pattern amplified behind lows and ridging in Atlantic (as per EC Monthly & GloSea5)

- Stratospheric diagnostics indicate resumption of stronger zonal flow for a time from mid into 2nd half Feb

- A more mobile/unsettled outcome then returning for UK (EC Monthly also suggests W'ly return later Feb)

- GloSea5 continues as before to signal any more definite/major stratospheric warming is most likely late Feb-early March

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Amendments have been made by IF

Latest UKMO assessment as follows:

- Current warming episode still expected to be minor

- Mixed model signals re SFC story early-mid Feb, but current preferred outcome is for (at least passing) colder phases from later next week and more especially during 2nd week Feb (longevity uncertain) with pattern amplified behind lows and ridging in Atlantic (as per EC Monthly & GloSea5)

- Phases of colder Am episodes expected. Given potential passage of low-latitude systems towards S'rn UK in 00z EPS, snow risk may not be confined just to N'rn UK

- Stratospheric diagnostics indicate resumption of stronger zonal flow *for a time* from mid into 2nd half Feb

- A more mobile/unsettled outcome *may* then return for UK (EC Monthly also suggests W'ly return later Feb)

- However, 00z data is also suggestive of generally colder, more anticyclonic conditions later Feb: JURY OUT

- GloSea5 continues - as before - to signal any more definite/major stratospheric warming is most likely late Feb-early March

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

I admit, I'm not quite sure what a SSW does- I've heard it can change the dominant advected airmass direction for us. Wouldn't that, say, in April bring the possibility of some pleasant or even warm easterly weather, if the flow was aligned favourably?

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Easterlies in April don't tend to be warm in my experience, cold air can linger on the continent in April. I'd much rather easterlies in Winter. But a long way out in any case. I also don't think we have a great track record of warm summers after a winter El Nino but I may be wrong.

Originally Posted by: Fothergill 

Easterlies in April don't tend to be warm in my experience, cold air can linger on the continent in April. I'd much rather easterlies in Winter. But a long way out in any case. I also don't think we have a great track record of warm summers after a winter El Nino but I may be wrong.

Originally Posted by: Fothergill 

[quote=PFCSCOTTY;762483]

God it was over some time ago in the south, because for another year it never actually arrived. 2 frosts and 2 average temp days out of 2 months is merely an extension of autumn.  

Wrong thread

What do you consider to be the South?

South of the M4

South of B'ham

The Coast?

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Easterlies in April don't tend to be warm in my experience, cold air can linger on the continent in April. I'd much rather easterlies in Winter. But a long way out in any case. I also don't think we have a great track record of warm summers after a winter El Nino but I may be wrong.

Originally Posted by: Fothergill 

april easterlies can bring some fantastic warmth 😊 

a classic example but by no means isolated would be April 2003 ☀️☀️

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

lets hope we have an april like 2011 which was very warm and sunny where 18 -20 deg c became the daily norm and the temperature reached as high as 27.8 °C at Wisley, Surrey on 23rd, the highest April temperature anywhere in the UK since 1949. However this was one of a succession of dry months over the south of the uk going back into 2010 and we were worried about drought !
alan

Originally Posted by: chiversa 

I'm guessing many people on here havent seen some cold snowy weather in March or April for that matter , snow can last during these months.

I do get the impression many on here are only in search of weeks of Ice days and a foot of snow. We are the uk for gods sake .

I also dont understand the " thats it for the Winter " comments. Its January 30th

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

We normally have the "It can snow in April" comments much earlier in the winter. Show's how our winters are changing these days...

Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 

lets hope we have an april like 2011 which was very warm and sunny where 18 -20 deg c became the daily norm and the temperature reached as high as 27.8 °C at Wisley, Surrey on 23rd, the highest April temperature anywhere in the UK since 1949. However this was one of a succession of dry months over the south of the uk going back into 2010 and we were worried about drought !
alan

Originally Posted by: chiversa