A week out GEM sniffs high pressure for the south:

Finally some heat coming our way from the models. The heat in Southern Europe and North Africa is very impressive for the time of year so any type of regular southerly could lead to a very warm May. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A small depression will move slowly East across Scotland tomorrow with a strengthening Westerly flow to it's South bringing troughs of Low pressure SE across the UK tonight.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK sees very low uppers across the UK still though with the levels rising later in the weekend. In the meantime levels of between 2000-3000ft as the freezing level means that snowfall under the unsettled conditions could reach quite low levels at times with settling snow on quite modest hills at times.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Slowly becoming warmer and eventually drier especially in the South at first and the North later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream which has been moving South down across the UK over recent days continues to trend towards blowing more west to East across the UK next week though it takes some time to remove the trough in the flow near the UK. then late in the period it appears to desire to move well South of the UK blocked by higher pressure to the NE.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a lot of chilly weather again as High pressure blocking to the North of the UK continues to be persistent in the longer term. However, in the short term the model shows the current cold and unsettled pattern will decay in the wake of milder West or SW winds next week when the North and West sees the most of the rain while the South and East sees drier and brighter weather before we see a return of High pressure to the North and lower pressure coming up from the South or SW with thundery rain in places but with a much warmer version of continental winds this time around.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational in trend as warmer uppers eventually become established across the UK. This doesn't mean wall to wall dry and sunny weather as injections of Low pressure from the West and SW at times from later next week continue to bring the risk of more unsettled conditions with rain or showers but at least the rain will be warmer.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clusters today show a bias towards Low pressure lying to the South and West of the UK with warmer continental winds blowing across the UK with rain at times. there are other options available too ranging from Low pressure over the NW of the UK and High pressure established well to the SW.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a blustery West to NW flow from Sunday with a band of rain crossing SE followed by brighter and more showery conditions over the Bank Holiday Monday with a ridge following settling things down for a time towards the middle of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today follows the raw data above well as the current cold Low pressure is replaced by something a little more average for late April synoptically with Low pressure to the North with troughs moving Se across the UK with the familiar band of rain followed by showers in somewhat less cold air than of late.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning looks quite encouraging if it's High pressure your after as this weekends Low pressure area up to the NW carries bands of rain and showers SE which become followed by a build of pressure from the South and SW towards the middle of next week, gradually extending it's influence up and across all areas as it becomes the main feature of the weather over and around the UK late in the period with warm continental winds and perhaps showers in the South blowing up across the UK from the SE or East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows High pressure building from the South towards the middle of next week but the problem here is that the High may become drawn back west or NW of the UK by next weekend which would spell cooler conditions following a warmer interlude next week but at least it looks generally quite dry for many after the early days of the week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today also follows the theme of a windy and showery start to next week but once the parent Low responsible moves away NE pressure rises from the South midweek with drier and warmer conditions in the South. This theme takes rather longer to reach the North with a reversion to showery Low pressure to move over from the West and South later but with much warmer uppers from Europe making things potentially thundery late in the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure over or close to the SW with much warmer uppers than of late over the UK in SE winds ensuring warmer weather is likely but with the proximity of Low pressure showery weather at best looking likely. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show a change to very much warmer weather with time but still remaining rather changeable.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.3 pts to UKMO at 87.0 pts and GFS at 83.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.4 pts to 56.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 47.3 pts to 37.9 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS Finally it looks like by this time in two weeks time Spring may have properly sprung as the synoptic patterns surrounding the British isles at that time point all appear to show much warmer uppers across the UK than currently. Mind you we are not properly out of the woods yet with the next few days continuing the cold and in places unseasonable weather with rain, hill snow and frost still prevalent. However, by Sunday winds will of backed to a milder westerly with a band of rain moving SE across the UK late Sunday/ early Monday and this will be followed by a chilly and showery WNW flow under rising pressure. By midweek many Southern areas look like becoming dry with warmer day temperatures and nigh temperatures recovering too reducing the risk of frost. But it's then from late next week the most encouraging synoptics develop with regard to temperature as many model runs support the High pressure in the South migrating both east and north to affect all of the UK with warmer winds from the South or Se most likely and it may become rather warm at times. It may not be settled though as all the time it looks like pressure will be falling again to the South and SW with outbreaks of showery and potentially showery rain looking likely later. So that's the general theme as I see it this morning meaning that after what has seemed perpetual Autumn as somebody mentioned recently it looks at last we may be moving towards something more May like which given the very chilly April days gone will feel very pleasant indeed in the ever lengthening days and warm sunshine that will inevitably occur between the showers. Let's hope the models do not backtrack in the coming days.. 

Next Update Friday April 29th 2016 from 09:00

Signs of a warm up in the GFS ems, no heatwave but a lot warmer than it has been.

Maybe some thunder to with time.

Looking a bit more promising in terms of settled conditions with temperatures recovering to normal values for this time next week over at least the southern half of the UK as it slips into UKMO's output territory . . .

ECM 12z looks warm with a thunder risk in fi tonight.

I was wondering if we might have a system forming to the mid Northwest of Ireland?.

There is always that one model that throws a spanner into the works when it comes to medium range forecasting.

Here are the various models in the 144 hours range (Wednesday mid-day which is six days away as I type this) . . . all looking good for a spell of settled and dry weather at this neck of the woods as per UKMO's take on it.

ECM . . .

GEM . . .

JMA not being that far off . . .



Even NAVGEM nod it's head in agreement . . .





And the party pooper? It only has to be GFS . . .

The forecast for next week looks agreed upto 3rd May i.e., upto and including next Tuesday. Monday Mild in SE and South - cooler in the North and the West, a spell of heavy rain followed quickly by heavy showers blustery with thunder as well, Monday windy.

Mostly showery weather on Tuesday 3rd May, near average early May Temperatures, but they will be chilly further North and in NW, and East half as well that means about 10-12 deg. C.

Given the GFS thought it is way different to UKMO and ECMWF on Wednesday 4th, I would be pleased if GFS backtracked to it's earlier prediction for that day.

It is time for dry and warm very warm conditions and the forecast models have humid warm dry, sunny as well as Thundery Showers in  the 192-240 range.

Edit: today's GFS short wave trof it puts under the south side of Parent Low at 144hrs and it thinks chilly NW flow might cross all but far South, the 12z and 18z run both tinker with it.  Large Polar Vortex Low for  affecting the NE of N Atlantic and over the Central and N UK and it does not support a 1025 mbs high for Southern UK at 144hrs on 28th April's UKMO and ECMWF.  The JMA also comes close to GFS but it places it more across the NW of us.

😎🌍🌤⚡️.

Hoping this is a better GFS chart Ian (southern bias) to the one you posted yesterday. Quite a fine line where just a little model adjustment either way could prove to be important.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.gif

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A depression over NE England will drift out into the North Sea today and fill slowly as a cold and showery NW flow also weakens by tomorrow ahead of a ridge of High pressure moving in from the SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK continues to endure very low uppers for the time of year with the freezing level between 1700ft and 3000ft across the UK coupled with wintry showers falling as snow at times. Later in the weekend the levels rise from the West as an Atlantic flow takes hold with the freezing levels rising above all hills apart from over Scotland late on Sunday and Monday as behind a cold front uppers fall back again to around 3000ft with snow showers over the mountains.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Slowly becoming warmer and eventually drier especially in the South at first and the North later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is realigning West to East across the UK over the next few days as the cold Low pressure areas finally dissolve and move away East. The flow then continues in it's new location for some time gradually reforming a trough like pattern over the UK again later before changing to a NE moving flow across the NW of Britain to end the run.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a very mixed bag of weather over the UK in the coming few weeks but it's not all bad news as it will be less cool than recently. A SW flow with occasional rain early next week is displaced by higher pressure especially across the South with some pleasant Spring sunshine. Some of this warmth wafts further North next weekend as the High responsible drifts away to the East. Lower pressure then edges across the UK from the West with occasional rain and showers at times before the end of the run shows High pressure making a strong return across the South at least with some warm and sunny weather developing with any unsettled conditions contained well to the NW.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational in theme of warmer conditions countrywide on the way and although never entirely settled there will be plenty of very useable conditions under slack pressure zones over and around the UK giving warm sunshine and some showers to almost anywhere.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clusters today just about show a bias toward Low pressure lying to the West of the UK and a warm Southerly drift for the UK. It must also be mentioned that there are many other alternatives on offer so still no true cohesion between members on what exact weather type we will have at that time.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a blustery West to SW flow early next week with some blustery showers in places before High pressure ridges up from the South by midweek with warmer and drier conditions especially across the South and East where it looks like becoming largely dry and pleasant from Wednesday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts mirror the theme of the raw data well today showing better conditions under Atlantic winds likely by the middle of next week although these winds ares shown to bring troughs East and SE at times with rain at times especially in the North and West.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning looks quite changeable through it's run with the most notable feature being the very much warmer weather likely to develop with time. In the short term blustery winds from the West will bring some rain and showers early next week before High pressure brings calmer and bright weather. Then as the ridge moves East and declines Southerly winds ahead of a trough brings showery weather across from the West with this theme continuing across the South until the end of the period. With warmer winds from Europe it could well become warm, humid and thundery down across the South by the second weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows a brief drier and warmer period towards the middle of next week under a ridge of High pressure crossing East. On this run it doesn't hang around long with Atlantic Low pressure returning some wind and rain at times in a Westerly cyclonic flow by next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today shows a complex evolution of pressure patterns over the UK in the next 10 days. Things are straightforwards enough in the short term as a deep depression moving ENE well north of Scotland pushes troughs with with wind and rain east and SE across all areas on Sunday and Monday. Then a strong ridge close to the South midweek encourages fine and warmer weather in the South. However, pressure falls a little later with the UK becoming in nomansland with no one pressure area having overall control meaning some showers are inevitable with temperatures close to average or perhaps a little above in any sunny spells towards the 10 day point.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure over or close to the SW with much warmer uppers than of late over the UK in SE winds ensuring warmer weather is likely but with the proximity of Low pressure showery weather at best looking likely. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show a change to very much warmer weather with time but still very mixed in regard to specific detail.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.3 pts to UKMO at 87.1 pts and GFS at 83.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.8 pts to 56.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 47.9 pts to 40.5 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The main message from the models this morning maintains the theme of rather warmer weather developing across the UK from a day or two's time as we finally lose the Northerly sourced airflow and Low pressure across the UK. Instead Low pressure to the NW will become influential late in the weekend with strong and milder WSW winds driving wind and rain bearing fronts East and SE across the UK late on Sunday and Monday. Then a bright and brisk NW flow with sunshine and showers look likely to be replaced by a ridge of High pressure and drier weather for many and it may begin to feel quite warm in any sunshine across the South from midweek. In the period that follows things become very confusing between the models with no clear set pattern shown. The one constant though is warmer conditions and although some Low pressure looks like filtering in from the West by next weekend the rain from these looks quite showery in nature with still a lot of dry weather in between. There is still some support for High pressure to migrate North late in the period with Low pressure to the South setting up a warm, humid and potentially thundery period but this is by no means the universal rule with options of Atlantic westerlies with rain at times just one of alternative options. Which is right is the 64,000,000 dollar question and more runs are needed over the next few days as the pattern that far ahead hopefully becomes more clear. So we can look forward to some warmer and drier weather more akin to May in the weeks ahead although always prepare for a shower at anytime anywhere making it look like a very typical English May Outlook. I'm not around now for a few days but will return for my next report on Tuesday morning. My morning weather forecasts will remain updated as usual but whatever you are doing over the weekend enjoy the somewhat better conditions and hopefully on my next report it all looks warm and summery from the models.

Next Update Tuesday May 3rd 2016 from 09:00

Next week shaping up nicely away from NW fringe UKMO 120

Yes, there is much to be optimistic about after the recent drab-fest and chills.

ECM 144 looking decent for the bulk of British folk:

I experienced slight sunburn after being frozen stiff in the wind at Thruxton today. Crazy times.

I'm glad to see GFS moving toward the ECM/UKMO solution for Wed-Fri next week i.e. drier and warmer instead of breaking things down before the finer weather has really got going. This being particularly so due to the fact that, just under two weeks back, I advised by dad to move his holiday to the first week of May from the last week of April!

If GFS reverts back tomorrow, I will be losing a few strands of hair to say the least. The 18z is encouraging though; the Atlantic trough is notably further west at +120 hours, even more so by +144 hours, with warm air making it further NW and sticking around across a wider area through Friday 

We are well extremely over due for some warmth and already not seeing 20C for the first time in my life in April so no matter what the temps will be forced to reach to 20C or low 20's next week in any HP during May, remember the sun now high as July position.  Looking at the calendar we only have 8 more weeks before daylight start shortening again as we lost many usable long daylight due to cold and unsettled weather this spring.  This BH looking just decent enough and possible to pass Monday without a wash out day.  Last dry BH was last year May Day, wash outs follow on to Easter BH.

Next Week warm high pressure predicted for Wednesday - Friday.

They will really pick up by Thursday 22 or 23 Celsius should be gained, upto 24 deg. C or 25 by Friday in SE S and Central UK.

By Saturday and Sunday Low Pressure expected to dominate again - bringing heavy and thundery showers, temperatures will gradually then quickly drop down to slightly above average.

Western N Atlantic High build up on Thursday and Friday while the Arctic Svalbard High joins with Mid NW and far NNW Europe High, that ridges- continues to Sit close and over UK after next Friday.

Wednesday to Friday Iceland cold wintry weather Cyclonic PV Low, it develops from the RPM Central NW Atlantic to Iceland second Low P, it takes up residence in North Atlantic and clips N Ireland and NW Scotland at 120-144hrs.  Finland to Far East and SE Europe two Low's interconnect and bring down chilly northerly flow down there.

Beyond Saturday 8th April, it looks like staying warm to 240 hours, with High Pressure building over our East and North UK has it.

While Low Pressure intensifies to our Southwest pushing SE to NW very warm and humid weather, Sunday to Tuesday (8th-10th May) 2016, we could see heavy and thundery showers in SW S and Central parts etc, North and NW and NE corners driest, sunniest.

Yes definitely looking good for the first real heat of the year 25c possible from Friday onwards.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.html

Good things come to those who wait Jiries, May looks to be setting up to be a warm or very warm month . I expect the summer to be the same. Looks similar to 75, 83, 95 maybe even 76.

Jires the sun is only as strong as mid August at the moment, and it won't be July strength until after mid May 😊

Main reason for potential warming trend is LP to the SW and HP to the NE, with a S or SE'ly wind. Not settled mind.

Trend continues in 00Z output for a warming trend (yahh hoo!) as May progresses...

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81

Interesting update from Matt.

I think with the way things have gone for us we know the GFS will be correct with how this plays out.