I have just had a skeg through the outputs . . . and I'm going back into hibernation, mind you the lack of postings in here should provide a clue. Although ECM does offer a slight crumb of hope in terms of things resembling close to Spring-like conditions expected for this time of year and even that's only for southern England in the 240 hrs range.

A long way out but ECM wants to bring in a nosing Azores HP from day 9 to settle things down for May?

This scenario is backed up by the GEFS (for London shown below), to some extent, which show a marked warming trend with the 0z Op being a notable outlier in its latter stages:

About time too. This April cold spell is colder than almost anything I've had this whole winter.

Yes, horribly cold compared to what has gone before it, but I draw encouragement from the ens I posted above.

The outputs short term seem to have a really dominant Easterly flow N of Scandinavia- not just airstream, but a real tendency on a huge scale to move air from E to W, perpetuating the cold-origin air for us. Earlier (winter) there was talk of a SSW event: is this anything to do with that?

Interestingly Ian Ferguson on a Points West broadcast early this week gone said that the current Synoptics were due to 'events high up in the atmosphere last month' so take from that what you can.

A slight bit of cherry picking on my part and it is at 240 hours away, but ECM keeps that glimmer of hope going in terms of something more seasonal weather-wise.

Will I get to see GFS and GEM come up with a similar idea when I cast my eyes over the models upon getting up to do my usual Cloud Master forecast tomorrow morning ?

Nor, in recent years, in midsummer

Dover ens. 12z GFS - warming trend

ECM continue to keep the hope alive with regards to something a little more seasonal expected for this time of year - but is it still to early to suggest it being a trend? The other models are being less favourable by keeping the changeable theme going as we go into the first week of May.  

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION An increasingly cold Northerly airflow is moving down across the UK behind a cold front moving South down across Northern and Eastern regions through today with the cold Northerly lasting for much of this week thereafter before backing Westerly later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK sees very low uppers across the UK throughout this week with the range of the freezing level lying between 1500ft in the North and less than 3000ft in the South. This allows a risk of snowfall in showers at any elevation over 1000ft UK wide through the week.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Remaining rather cold and showery this week but possibly becoming less cold next week.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is streaming South down across the UK today and for much of this week before it backs to more of a West to East flow close to Southern Britain next weekend. In the second week the flow still looks like remaining close to Southern Britain still largely blowing West to East while all the time maintaining an unsettled and cyclonic weather pattern across the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a cold and showery Northerly flow blowing down across the UK between High pressure to the West and Low to the East. By the end of the week the Low pressure to the East eases West towards the North of the UK backing the winds more Westerly and removing the very coldest uppers with it but maintaining a very unsettled pattern. Through the second week things have only warmed up marginally on this run with continuing cool and unsettled weather next week with rain at times although any wintriness should become confined to the far North.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational during the first half of the period with a cold Northerly flow the main feature promoting wintry showers this week with a slow transition towards somewhat less cold weather and at the very end of the period drier conditions too especially across the North and East as on this run as pressure builds over and then to the North and East of the UK. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA Still very mixed messages from the Clusters yet again with a mix of Low pressure lying close to the West and SW of the UK just about holding sway as the most likely theme at 14 days although there are plenty of alternative outcomes involving closer proximity to higher pressure scenarios albeit no real signal on location of this or longevity of any one pattern.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning is showing a cold and showery week as Low pressure dominates just to the East of the UK with a Northerly feed down across the UK. By the weekend the pressure gradients slacken across the UK as well as backing more Westerly giving fair and less chilly conditions at the weekend with rain and showers more likely towards the North and West by then than elsewhere. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a very complex week of synoptic pressure patterns across the UK as unseasonably cold air floods South across the UK frequently complicated by frequent injections of troughs from the North and later West ensuring unsettled conditions remain for all of the UK up until and probably including the start of the Bank Holiday weekend..

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning shows a sustained fairly unsettled period this morning and with cold Northerlies blowing down across the UK this week it will stay cold with rain or wintry showers at times. With time the coldest conditions weaken as winds back Westerly at the weekend but it never looks like becoming anything like warm with next week too looking relatively cool and unsettled under Low pressure over or close by to the UK. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM N/A at time of issue. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM is the most optimistic model this morning in that while it also shows a cold and showery week to come conditions slowly improve at the Bank Holiday Weekend as the cool and showery theme becomes replaced by less cold and benign conditions especially in the South with improvements continuing next week to include much of the UK as High pressure over Biscay and France builds North across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night is continuing the theme of the UK gradually lifting out of the cold spell as slacker pressure gradients with a weak Westerly component looks likely in 10 days time with the best weather then developing over the South with temperatures having recovered somewhat for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is still plenty of evidence that the very coldest conditions shown this week will weaken over the Bank Holiday weekend with a more changeable but less cold mix of options shown between the models thereafter.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.9 pts to UKMO at 86.8 pts and GFS at 83.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 62.3 pts to 54.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.6 pts to 38.3 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The models remain constant in showing this week as being nothing less than a cold and in a few places wintry one with rain and showers falling as sleet and snow at times on higher ground and not always just in the North. The winds will be screaming down from the North over the coming days accentuating the cold and while frost at night may not be the biggest problem due to the strength of the wind it is a very real risk where sheltered from the wind. By the weekend changes do look like beginning as the Low pressure to the East transfers towards the North of the UK and as pressure rises to the South winds back to a less cold Westerly. The weather at the weekend is still very undecided with some output suggesting rain and showers continuing although the Euro's look much more sedate as High pressure ridges into the UK from the South restricting the showers to the far North and more importantly it could be that temperatures then approach normal values especially in the South. To my untrained eye there seems little prospect of any sustained warmer period anytime soon as the models which stretch out to longer term periods suggest that Northern High pressure blocking remains a strong possibility as we move into the first half of May and if that verifies it will remain rather on the cool side with rain or showers at times as Low pressure areas take a track that is further South than ideal for the UK. However, this is not a forecast but a generalisation of what the models appear to be showing two weeks from now and it maybe that the better orientated rise of pressure given from both UKMO and ECM from next weekend moves further forward in breaking the rather cool pattern to something much better and May like. Time will tell of course but I would like to see more cohesion between all the output on the conditions for next week and beyond before I feel more confident  in any one solution. More from me tomorrow. 

Next Update Tuesday April 26th 2016 from 09:00

Could easily do Ian as the better charts are still quite a long way out.

Plenty of reason to expect improvements in the longer term. A very distinct warming trend on the ens.

This must surely be heading towards being one of the coldest April's on record.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=958

Like the consensus for this 10C 850s rise over the next fortnight. 'bout time.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold Northerly flow will back towards the NW tonight and tomorrow with a very showery airflow across the UK being maintained and with troughs developing in the flow later tomorrow moving NW to SE across Britain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK sees very low uppers across the UK still with little sign of any significant change in the coming days. The freezing level will remain around 1700-3000ft through the next few days with snowfall expected across modest hills UK wide on occasion over the coming days.

 http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining rather cold and showery this week but possibly becoming less cold next week.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is streaming South down across the UK today but will back more towards a West to East motion still across the UK later in the week. The flow remains quite well South over the remainder of the run but after a period of blowing quite well defined East or SE across Southern Britain becomes much less well defined later next week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a cold and showery Northerly flow blowing down across the UK between High pressure to the West and Low to the East. As the rest of the week progresses the winds will back towards the NW or West with further rather cold weather though perhaps not quite as cold as currently. through this period very showery conditions look likely with wintriness anywhere at first but more prone to Northern hills by the weekend. Then through next week and beyond very slow improvements take place as High pressure slowly builds across the UK with sunny and warmer days eventually but with a risk of night ground frosts remaining until very late in the period on this run.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational today with the cold and showery theme gradually giving ground from the weekend though the weather looks like remaining unsettled and breezy well into next week before the main improvement arrives from the SW and West. By the end of the run pressure looks higher well to the Northwest and with Low pressure to the South there may be a return of some showery rain towards the South and SW at the end of the period though by then it would probably be much warmer. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  It's been a very long time since the Clusters have given a clear and concise clue as to what weather pattern will lie across the UK in 14 days from the present and today is no exception with the bias supporting Low pressure to the South or West of the UK holding the biggest share of members though it has to be said there are several other themes in contrast to the above shown too.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning still looks rather cold and showery through this weekend with modest and slow improvements towards a move away from the coldest conditions but still quite showery weather looking likely over the bank Holiday weekend in a blustery West or NW wind.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today maintain a complex look this morning with an increased threat of troughs swinging in from the NW or West later this week and into the weekend which although rising temperatures marginally from current levels continue rather cool and unsettled conditions for quite a while yet.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning looks generally unsettled throughout the period this morning. In addition to the continuing threat of showers the winds backing Westerly will eliminate the very coolest conditions but with gales possible in places next week especially under deep Low pressure over the North the weather will be hardly likely to feel particularly Springlike on any day through this run with rain or showers at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today looks like maintaining rather cold conditions under a NW flow for much of the next week. With Low pressure in close proximity of the UK the weather will be showery for much of the time but with some drier periods too and with some longer spells of rain mixed in too especially over the North where snow could continue to fall over some of the higher hills despite being May by then. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM is the once more the most optimistic model this morning in that while it also shows a cold and showery week to come conditions slowly improve at the Bank Holiday Weekend as the cool and showery theme becomes replaced by less cold and benign conditions in the South although any major improvements look tentative at best as pressure remains Low to the East and also to the North of the UK with the best conditions likely over the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows a High pressure ridge to the South of the UK with a Westerly flow across the UK. With the Jet Stream further North than recently near Scotland the South could become largely dry, less cool and bright whereas the North and NE continue to see cooler conditions with some rain or showers at times due to Low pressure belts to the North and East. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show a steady improvement away from the very coolest conditions as winds back westerly. there is much disagreement though about how dry such a Westerly flow will become.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.1 pts to UKMO at 86.8 pts and GFS at 83.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 62.9 pts to 54.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 45.5 pts to 37.4 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  There is still a quite muted approach to improvements within the models this morning but we may have to be very patient to see it. Through the rest of the working week there looks like a lot of bright and showery weather for all areas complicated by frontal systems swinging in from the NW on Wednesday night and Thursday with some more extensive rain and maybe even snowfall across the hills.. Then it's back to cool NW winds and sunshine and showers across the weekend and though it maybe a little less cold in the South conditions for the Bank Holiday weekend look unlikely to be warm anywhere with some fleeting sunny spells between the showers. Then as we look forward to the first week of May conditions look like improving very slowly with the South looking best for conditions as we  move deeper into May as the Jet Stream moves further North and pressure rises somewhat to the South keeping winds in a rather warmer westerly source. However, there is some dispute between the output on this solution with some resistance to any marked build of pressure with a more mobile Atlantic regime setting up with rain at times for all in a more unstable Westerly flow. I'm afraid we need more runs before the deeper outlook period comes better into focus with the  general theme of cool and showery weather continuing to be the main theme with the tentative rise in pressure and temperatures the most likely theme still over the next week at least. 

Next Update Wednesday April 27th 2016 from 09:00

GFS 6z showing earlier signs of an improvement by the middle of next week.

The much touted ECM sees a different set of upper air temperatures for the east  in six days' time:

Could be less windy in the south if UKMO has it right:

Some agreement from both ECM and GFS that an area of low pressure will move close to North West Scotland on Monday and slowly fill. By midweek a slack area of high pressure to the south influences our weather for a couple of days, then an Atlantic low takes over as we go into the following weekend. GFS extended outlook then has it unsettled for a few days, but suggests something more Summery (for the south and east quadrant at least) at the end of its time frame.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn37217.gif

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold North-Westerly flow continues to blow down across the UK backing towards the West tomorrow as a new Low pressure area approaches Western Ireland later tomorrow with troughs poised to cross East over the UK tomorrow night.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK sees very low uppers across the UK still with little sign of any significant change in the coming days. The freezing level will remain around 1700-3000ft through the next few days with snowfall expected across modest hills UK wide on occasion over the coming days.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Slowly becoming less cold and changeable with rain at times chiefly in the North and West with longer drier periods towards the South and East.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream which has been moving South down across the UK over recent days will slowly back West to East across the UK in a couple of days time. The flow then remains in this position for a time before gradually setting up a trough to the West of the UK later. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a cold and showery Northerly flow backing towards the West today and tomorrow gradually being replaced by a new depression moving across the North on Friday. This means a couple more showery days before wet and windy conditions with snow in the North move through late tomorrow and lingering in the South Friday. Another cold and showery weekend seems likely for many before Westerly winds next week bring further wet and windy spells although becoming less cold for many. With low pressure to the North the South and East could see longer drier periods with the North and West seeing the most wind and rain. Through the second week all areas are shown to become unsettled again with showers with hints of a more summery area of High pressure from Europe to end the run with fine and warm conditions developing for most areas should it verify.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational today with the cold and showery theme gradually giving ground from the weekend with Westerly winds and rain at times in less cold weather next week before all areas become showery for a time under slack UK placed Low pressure with the same better weather shown in the Operational Run duplicated on this run too albeit with thundery Low pressure lying to the South of the UK later in a strong and blustery Easterly wind with strong High pressure to the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA Another mixed bag from the Clusters this morning with a lot of different scenarios on the table for 14 days time. No one pressure theme is shown with changeable being the main term I would use to describe any one of the weather types shown.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows the end of the cold weather on Saturday as the Low approaching the UK tomorrow drifts away to the East on Saturday. This is then followed by a ridge of High pressure on Sunday with cloud and rain spreading in from the West on Monday under a strong westerly breeze especially over the North. This is then chased away by bright and breezy less cold Westerly winds by midweek next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today illustrate well a move away from the cold Northerly sourced air across the UK at the weekend as the showery Low pressure and troughs responsible move away to the East on Saturday. A ridge of High pressure means the South sees a drier spell on Sunday as troughs on this run are shown to mostly affect the North with rain and strong winds moving East while the South becoming breezy and less cold sees less in the way of rainfall.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning also shows the end of the cold period from the weekend as Low pressure further to the North of the UK brings Westerly winds and rain at times across the UK from Sunday evening. Through next week strong westerly winds bring further showers or rain at times and it will still feel chilly in the blustery wind. Then late next week the winds veer Northerly again as Low pressure drifts to the East and with pressure building to the West again a cold Northerly flow with showers return with the risk of ground frosts at night.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also less cold conditions on the way as Low pressure features much further to the North of the UK than recently with westerly winds developing from the weekend and while not warm these winds will bring a more seasonal mix of sunshine and occasional rain chiefly across the North and West with drier and warmer weather for all looking likely to develop late next week as High pressure builds up from the South and SW. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today also shows changeable but less cold conditions developing as it's main theme this morning. The current cold and unsettled weather eases at the weekend as winds back towards the West. however, strong Westerly winds will bring rain at times to many areas followed by a blustery WNW flow with showers early next week. then a ridge of High pressure further increases temperatures to average at least with some pleasant weather especially in the South. It may not last long though as this run indicates Low pressure returning late next week and weekend with rain or showers developing for many.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure to the North or NE maintaining changeable conditions with some rain or showers likely for many areas at times but it should remain feeling less cold than currently. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show a change to a more Westerly based weather pattern from late in the weekend lasting through next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.3 pts to UKMO at 87.0 pts and GFS at 83.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 63.9 pts to 55.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 46.4 pts to 38.1 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The theme of less cold weather shown across the models continues today although I use the term 'less cold' with caution as I wouldn't want readers to think a warm spell is on the way soon as that still looks unlikely. However, having said that the end of the cold Northerly flow is nigh as a Low pressure area crossing East over the UK tomorrow night is the last within the cold sourced airflow so we have several more days of relatively cold and unsettled conditions to go. It's Sunday when winds back towards the West or SW and milder air is pushed across the UK although with Low pressure then to the NW of the UK driving fronts East with rain at times especially towards the North and West and then following that is a blustery and cool feeling bright and breezy mix of sunshine and rain showers towards midweek. Thereafter there is still a lot of indecision shown within the output and GEM notably dips us back into a cold Northerly. ECM too brings unsettled weather back towards the end of next week after a brief warmer ridge midweek with GFS bringing High pressure across and eventually settling to the North with a warmer continental feed towards the end of the second week. So as you can see wild fluctuations between the models longer term remain but leaving GEM aside we should see the very last of the cold weather of this season depart at the weekend with something more average from next week with rain at times for many but unfortunately any longer term warm and settled conditions on a UK wide basis still looks a long way off this morning. 

Next Update Thursday April 28th 2016 from 09:00