There's always one. 

Yes after a week of "late winter" weather it looks like a period of easterly muck for the northeast (no doubt to be followed by "a breakdown to more unsettled conditions")

I wouldn't - you'd be eaten alive by midges.

An unsettled vibe to the models today but becoming pleasantly warm in fi.

So we swap cold rain for warm rain, good growing weather.

The English channel is looking quite barmy for any holidaymakers fancying a early season dip.

16 C here with nae chance of convection. Probably have the haar in! 

I do feel for you and other Aberdonians. The East coast if Scotland seems to have suffered the worst weather in Britain for years now (or at least the "least good" - no Cumbrian flooding or anything dramatic). The last time I remember people expressing happiness with the Aberdeen weather was the long dry season of Spring and Summer 2003.

Pleasing output for most. The warm up of night time temperatures will become the most notable feature with minimum temperatures probably in the range 12-15c. 

Some impressively warm upper air temperatures being forecast for next week and it has been a consistent theme in recent runs. The main trend is for a very strong block to form to our north/north east. If we end up on the warm side of the block we could end up with a very warm May CET. It is anticyclonic south easterlies that deliver the highest CET values at this time of the year.

This pattern resembles the first half of May 2000 and 2008. Both of these periods had very high CETs.

Could be a few thunderstorms around though and as you say the most notable aspect will be the high minimums. Interesting times ahead.

Summer is a coming folks yay!!

Delicious looking temperstures from Friday onwards,lets hope they stay and increase from here on and for the next 5 months

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will develop across Southern Britain through the next 24 hours while troughs of Low pressure moving into the NW will weaken and decay as they try to move into the High pressure further SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK continues to see the freezing level across the UK rise above all summits over the next few days, rising from around 3500ft currently to as high as 10,000ft across the far South by the coming weekend.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming warmer with the risk of some thundery showers in the South at times later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream currently moving NE across the NW of the UK will weaken in the coming days with the main focus of the flow driving South across the Atlantic towards Spain and Iberia where Low pressure will anchor for some considerable time. Then later in the period the whole Jet stream structure becomes broken and ill defined around our patch of the World.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a lot of Northern blocking anticyclonic patterning over the next few weeks. In contrast Southern Europe in particular those areas near Spain and Iberia will experience unsettled conditions under Low pressure for a lot of the period. For the UK this means a lot of Easterly winds and warm weather across the UK with some thundery rain working it's way up across Southern Britain at times.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational for the next 10 days with warm and later humid weather with some thundery rain in places especially in the South. Then the run diverges late in the run as a more traditional pattern of Low to the NW and Westerly winds reset across the UK with the best weather reverting to Southern and Eastern areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clusters today show the UK likely to be lying under an area of quite slack pressure biased towards higher pressure rather than low, so a lot of dry and fine weather but with the risk of showers in places. the minority pack of members support rather more of an Atlantic influence to the weather under Low pressure to the NW.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a drift towards warm weather moving up across the UK from the SE later this week and particularly over the weekend. There looks likely to be a lot of dry weather too with Low pressure held quite a way to the SW and just the risk of a few thundery showers at times especially in the South and SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts mirror the theme of the raw data well today showing warm SE winds and a lot of dry weather come the weekend with just the chance of a thundery shower in the South and especially the SW.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning looks like becoming warm and dry later this week under a Se and later easterly flow with occasional thundery showers especially in the South. then towards the end of the run subtle changes in positioning of pressure systems back winds to a colder NE or North direction with some showers moving down across eastern Britain late in the 10 day period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today maintains the them shown by the above output but does bring unstable air deeper into the UK at the weekend with a more widespread scattering of heavy, thundery showers in quite humid air. The Easterly flow then supporting these conditions is shown to strengthen in a weeks time as the Low pressure area near Spain deepens.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today shows warm weather developing later this week as the High pressure ridge currently developing across the South of the UK drifts it's way East and allows warm continental winds to drift up across eventually all areas. They may not be dry winds though as some thundery showers look inevitable especially across the South. Then later in the period the theme seems to be for winds to back more towards the NE and for all Eastern areas at least to become cooler, perhaps notably so later with further showers at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows slack pressure across the UK made up of a variety of different options shown between the members. The best description of the likely weather as a result would be humid and showery for most with no one pressure system having overall control. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme remains for a warm and humid period of weather across the UK which could last for quite a while as High pressure is themed towards Northern latitudes.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 96.5 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.3 pts to UKMO at 87.2 pts and GFS at 83.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 63.1 pts to 54.8 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 46.9 pts to 39.9 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS There is a distinct agreed theme between the models this morning of very much warmer weather on the way to almost all regions by the coming weekend. The showery Westerly flow across the North currently will weaken today as a ridge of High pressure across the South builds. The air at this stage is still relatively cool and a frost in sheltered parts tonight is possible but that may well be the last frost for quite a while as each day warms and the weakening troughs in the NW tomorrow and Thursday decay further. Winds then turn SE across the UK by the weekend with warm uppers drawn up across the UK from Europe with temperatures easily exceeding their previously highest values so far this year. The air looks quite humid though and with pressure becoming low over Iberia we will have to watch and indeed expect some influence from that moving into Southern and SW Britain at times late in the week and in-particular over the weekend. This will take the form of thundery showers at times but they are unlikely to be widespread. I should also note that some impacts from winds off the North sea could bring a lot of cool sea mist and haar to many Eastern coasts especially in Scotland from the weekend and this will make things contrastingly miserable for folks living there. Then as we look further ahead into next week and beyond changes look slow with a weaker Jet flow then and with pressure seemingly remaining high to the North or NW it maybe that this eventually allows much cooler winds from the NE to reach the UK later. However, this is just one evolution of many that may develop in what is quite an unclear pattern from later next week. So as I hoped my return this week has marked a change to Spring proper as warm and humid seem likely to be the key words used to describe the weather across the UK over the next week or so at least and with a sprinkling of heavy and thundery showers around from the weekend it does indeed seem a much more seasonal forecast from any that I have produced recently.

Next Update Wednesday May 4th 2016 from 09:00

If only it was January and all that! Quite an Easterly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html

As it is probably warm or very warm away from the east coast.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Pressure is high over Southern England today as a couple of cold fronts move very slowly East across Northern areas today and tomorrow while weakening and eventually decaying in situ by Friday.  A thundery Low pressure area will then develop to the SW of the UK resulting in a warm ESE flow across the UK by the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK continues to see the freezing level across the UK rise to as high as 10000 feet across the South by the weekend while levels are slower to rise in the NW where they remain around 5000ft before rising to 7000ft  or above by the weekend.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming warmer with the risk of some thundery showers in the South at times later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream currently moving NE across the NW of the UK will weaken in the coming days with the main cyclonic flow around Spain becoming the driving force over the weekend and next week before the flow becomes very light and split across the Atlantic and NW Europe with no clear definitive structure shown within the latter end of the forecast period this morning.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today still shows a lot of Northern blocking anticyclonic patterning over the next few weeks. Pressure will be lower across Southern Europe and later other parts of Europe too with the best weather eventually likely to be in the NW. In the meantime the weather will be much warmer than of late with sunny spells but with the likelihood of some thundery showers at times especially in the South but not everywhere will see them. Eastern Coasts continue to look like seeing a lot of fret and here it will be rather chilly for much of the time in an onshore breeze and on this run all areas become cooler at the end of the period as cold North or NE winds and Low pressure feed down the North Sea in two weeks time with some rain or showers.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational for the next 10 days with warm and later humid weather with some thundery rain in places especially in the South. Then the run diverges late in the run as a more traditional pattern of Low to the NW and South-Westerly winds reset across the UK with the best weather reverting to Southern and Eastern areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clusters today show the UK likely to be lying under an area of quite slack pressure biased towards lower pressure rather than high, so a lot of potential shower risk conditions in temperatures around or slightly above average with High pressure likely to be lying either to the NW, West or SW with the UK itself lying under shallow and showery Low pressure areas.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows Low pressure developing down towards Spain and Portugal over the weekend with a strengthening Easterly flow across the UK. This will feed up the risk of thundery rain and showers towards the South and SW of the UK though most Northern and Eastern parts of the UK should stay dry and most areas it will become warm and humid. However, I cannot emphasize enough how much chillier it will feel near the East coast in an onshore and stiff wind with sea haar and fret persistent.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts mirror the theme of the raw data well today showing warm SE winds and a lot of dry weather come the weekend with just the chance of a thundery shower in the South and especially the SW between hazy but warm sunny spells.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning shows a similar pattern over the next week as Low pressure developing over Spain and Iberia deepens and strengthens an Easterly flow across the UK with some fine and warm weather for many but also with some occasional thundery showers across the South and West. Then towards the end of next week this Low over Spain is sucked away to the NE and backs winds off to the North or NE across the UK with much cooler and unsettled weather with cold rain and showers at times spreading to all areas at the second weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows the same Low pressure area down to the SW of the UK by the weekend pumping warm East to SE winds up across the UK with warm sunshine and well scattered thundery showers especially in the SW at first but to many more areas by the middle of next week as the pattern tries to reset to a more traditional UK pattern of Low pressure to the NW and High pressure to the South though it seem unclear whether such an attempt would be successful or not from the Day 7 Chart.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today shows warm weather developing later this week as the High pressure area currently near the South moves east and then North into Europe. The developing East or SE flow in association with deepening Low pressure over Biscay and Spain sends winds into the East with warm and humid conditions extending North across the UK by the weekend with some thundery showers at times down over the South and SW. Longer term changes look very slow this morning with the Spanish Low transferring into the Med and other parts of Europe maintaining an Easterly feed and the risk of showers across the South of the UK while the NW sees the best weather at the same time as all eastern coasts remain cool and misty. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows no pressure system having overall control though the theme of maintaining lower pressure across Europe and higher pressure just to the West or NW of the UK remains with the likely weather being rather showery in average temperatures at worst.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme remains for a warm and humid period of weather across the UK which could last for quite a while as High pressure is themed towards Northern latitudes and Low pressure likely to lie across Southern and Eastern mainland Europe.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.5 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.1 pts to UKMO at 87.1 pts and GFS at 83.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 62.5 pts to 53.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 46.1 pts to 39.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The theme of the models remain largely unchanged this morning with the main theme being Low pressure to the South of the UK and the continuation of once established High level blocking to the North of the UK with an East or SE flow developing across all parts of the UK by the weekend. We are not there yet though and the North and NW will continue to see a few more days of Atlantic SW winds and rain at times as weakening fronts approach from the West. These then dissolve and decay come the weekend as the High pressure over the South currently drifts East and Southerly or SE winds push the warmer air NW to all parts. As already mentioned pressure will become low or even very low over Spain with some unseasonably wet and windy weather expected down there from the weekend and some out-feed of this will move North towards the South and West at times in the form of thundery showers from the weekend. Elsewhere there will be a lot of warm, and in places very warm and humid conditions with plenty of hazy sunshine that is of course if you live away from the East Coast as in these places any chance of warm weather will be thwarted by a developing haar which does look as though it could give days of cold, breezy and dull conditions especially the further North up the North Sea coast you travel. This pattern then looks fairly set for a week or so before looking longer term it does still appear that there could be a desire to shift the Spanish Low more towards mainland Europe and the Med with winds backing to the NE or even North and it could be that colder conditions will end up being fed South through the UK with some showers in the East later. Another option shown is the chance that pressure may rebuild to the South of the UK on the exit East of the Low pressure over Spain with winds trying to counteract the Northern High pressure blocking with a slow change towards SW winds and rain returning more towards the North and West later. All these long term options look very tentative this morning and should be used as a guide rather than a forecast but for now the next week or so looks pretty well set between the output which should ensure all areas away from the East coast becomes warm, occasionally sunny and bright if breezy with time with the chance of a few thundery showers in places-especially in the South. Enjoy.

Next Update Thursday May 5th 2016 from 09:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Pressure remains high across the South of the UK with the weak frontal trough across the North of the UK continuing to weaken and decay over the coming day or so. With time an easterly flow will be developing across the South of the UK as pressure falls to the SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK continues to see the freezing level across the UK at around 5000ft over the NW and up to 8000ft over the SE. The level rises further in the coming days to as high as 10000ft over the South and 8000ft over the North by the weekend so no snowfall is expected anywhere over the coming days.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Becoming warmer with the risk of some thundery showers in the South at times later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream currently moving NE across the NW of the UK will continue to weaken over the next day or so with the main flow held under a cyclonic pattern across Spain while the northern arm remains a long way to the NW. Later in the period the flow will remain weak and broken around our neck of the world.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows fine and warm weather developing for many over the coming days with humidity rising at the weekend as pressure falls to the SW of the UK with some thundery rain moving North on Friday night and thundery showers possible over the weekend in the South. Then next month winds back more and more towards the NE and eventually North with the warmest conditions likely in the West with further thundery showers around in the afternoons. Then as the Low complex to the SE moves away winds back towards the West with pressure still quite high with a lot of dry and benign weather likely. Towards the end of the run a new High pressure is shown to develop across the UK fine, warm and settled weather returning to all parts in two weeks time.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of events illustrated within the Control Run is largely the same as the Operational Run with just small but subtle differences later in the period. On this run the latter period is governed by quite slack pressure with High pressure further to the North and the risk of showers remaining across the South in particular in continuing rather warm conditions.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today shows a lot of slack Low pressure over or around the UK with the risk of heavy showers continuing for many as we move through Mid May. With much of the air shown warm sourced the weather should continue to feel warm especially in sunny spells.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows Low pressure developing down towards Spain and Portugal strengthening the airflow from the East and SE over the weekend. The air is inherently very warm and humid with an increasing risk of thundery showers in the South by early next week all this following a band of thundery rain moving North on Friday night.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts mirror the theme of the raw data well today showing persistent Low pressure down near Spain and Portugal with an ESE flow with troughs moving North close to the West on Friday night/Saturday morning and again towards the start of next week with pulses of thundery rain or showers at times but with a lot of dry, breezy and humid air across the UK at the weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning shows the same sequence as the rest as the Low down near Spain and Portugal sends a risk of occasional thundery rain or showers across the South at times within the next week with warm and humid conditions developing for many. As the Low weakens later winds fall light and eventually revert to SW as pressure falls to the West and NW with rain and showers moving in from that direction towards the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows the same Low pressure area down to the SW of the UK by the weekend pumping warm East to SE winds up across the UK with warm sunshine and well scattered thundery showers. With time the pressure gradient falls out making for quiet and humid weather with slow moving thundery showers at times across many parts, a process that continues through to the end of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM shows a very similar path to events as NAVGEM today as the warm and strong ESE flow developing following a band of thundery rain moving North on Friday night brings humid and thundery conditions in places. Then as we move through next week the Low pressure to the South weakens with winds falling light and making for a lot of dry conditions but with slow moving thundery downpours for some as well. This pattern remains for Southern areas until the end of the period whereas further North a High pressure belt lying SW to NE will bring drier and slightly cooler conditions here to end the period.  

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows chances of a 'col' area developing over the UK in 10 days time. By definition an area between two low pressure areas and two higher pressure zones can often bring any type of weather with the best guess scenario leaning towards some showers but a lot of dry weather too in temperatures close to or slightly above average looking most likely.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme remains for a warm and humid period of weather across the UK which could last for quite a while as Low pressure remains likely to lie across Southern and Eastern mainland Europe and to some extent near the UK too.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.2 pts to UKMO's 96.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.9 pts to UKMO at 86.8 pts and GFS at 83.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 61.9 pts to 51.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 45.6 pts to 37.5 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The general theme of the weather over the coming two weeks remains largely unchanged from that which was shown yesterday. True there are small and subtle differences between the models the further out into the future we go but the general message remains that a lot of rather humid and showery weather is on the way to most areas perhaps most prominent over the South with the best conditions likely towards the NW. As mentioned yesterday the East coast could be a place to avoid over the next week as a sea fret and haar looks likely to develop north of the Humber but this does look like becoming less of a problem as we move into the second week when the Easterly or SE drift becomes less dominant. In the meantime the warming process is already well under way although the night's are still currently very chilly and it won't be until we get behind a band of thundery rain moving up the West side of the UK over Friday night that the risk of frost becomes entirely eliminated with winds too brisk by then and the air sourced from too warm and humid a source. Looking out into the far reaches of the output today there are still various scenarios on offer but in general it looks like staying on the warm side for many always with a risk of showers and in all honesty the charts look very seasonal this morning with ideal growing conditions underway across the UK over the coming few weeks once we can get rid of the risk of the present borderline night ground frosts.

Next Update Friday May 6th 2016 from 09:00