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moomin75
18 July 2016 19:52:14
It's really quite laughable that EVERY time GFS trends settled and warm, ECM trends unsettled and cool and then the 12z ECM trends settled and warm just as GFS does another about turn. God knows what August holds for us. I will stick with changeable and cool but I have about 2% confidence in that.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
bledur
18 July 2016 20:22:15

With quite a lot of uncertainty around over the next 2 weeks i wouldn't be at all surprised if we don't get another burst of 'real heat and summer' in early August. For the south at least this coming weekend is looking more than fair with high pressure rebuilding.....

Originally Posted by: cultman1 


 Yes the Azores high attempts to push in again and i think the second half of July is turning out better for most , but it looks like going downhill at the end of the month from this.


 


bledur
18 July 2016 20:24:43

To this


Ally Pally Snowman
18 July 2016 20:25:27


 


It just lately we seeing more of 20C 850 uppers reaching here for 2nd time after last year when it hard to get in the past, at best 17-18C uppers.  Latest ensembles show no further hot spells but it can change as no ensembles was showing 20C uppers tomorrow from last week runs.


Originally Posted by: Jiries 


 


If we can get to mid 30s with 2 day plumes then if and when a 76 type set happens again I think we should easily get past 40c .


Tomorrow we have an outside chance of the July record 36.7c last July it's a very similar set up but no cloud this time. Last year cloud cover came in for an hour or two and probably stopped 38c being hit. don't think we can hit 38 but 36.7c more of a chance.


 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
David M Porter
18 July 2016 20:39:24

It's really quite laughable that EVERY time GFS trends settled and warm, ECM trends unsettled and cool and then the 12z ECM trends settled and warm just as GFS does another about turn. God knows what August holds for us. I will stick with changeable and cool but I have about 2% confidence in that.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


ECM 12z is interesting in as much as it shows a gradual lowering of heights over Greenland at the end of the run with the Azores High trying to move towards the south of the UK. IIRC last night's 12z frun from GFS also showed an eventual decline of pressure over Greenland during the final few days of July.


Let's hope that we see more of these indications in coming model runs as we won't get the full benefit of the Az. High until pressure falls over Greenland.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
moomin75
19 July 2016 07:32:38
And hey presto ECM returns to unsettled. Shocking consistency from the models this year. Getting worse not better. So unreliable.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2016 07:45:08
Funny how after a few years of looking at models in winter and summer one's eye gets drawn more and more to that little corner of the North-West Atlantic over and just south of Greenland. With a few exceptions, low pressure over Greenland is better news, high pressure there is bad news. Those few exceptions being when either a. the Greenland low extends South East and brings us North-Westerlies, or b. the GH curves round East then South and we get the Southern edge of an extended block, as happened through much of July 2006 and parts of summer 1995.

I prefer hot spells with a zonal component because I live in the South East. I think things are different if you're further North. For me the perfect pattern would be low pressure over Greenland extending into the GIS, and then linking with a low over Svalbard.

As for hot temperatures, I think if this plume had been delayed by about 12-18 hours we could have seen 35-36C tomorrow, as it is we'll get a 30 somewhere, and a very warm night.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
doctormog
19 July 2016 07:56:08

Tim the BBC seems to think we will hit 35°C in the SW Midlands today. Carol was in Stratford-upon--Avon this morning as that is expected to be around he hottest area. Typically I was there yesterday and am back up here today!


TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2016 08:19:01


Tim the BBC seems to think we will hit 35°C in the SW Midlands today. Carol was in Stratford-upon--Avon this morning as that is expected to be around he hottest area. Typically I was there yesterday and am back up here today!


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I missed 1 July last year as I was in Frankfurt, and today I'm missing the hottest day too - typical. When I say 30C somewhere I mean tomorrow. Today still looks like a 33C day judging by the airmass and morning temperatures, but perhaps the strong insolation will give us a late max. 16 hours sunshine shown for London today.


Tonight's min looking interesting, I wonder if anywhere will stay above 23C.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
bledur
19 July 2016 08:46:03


Tim the BBC seems to think we will hit 35°C in the SW Midlands today. Carol was in Stratford-upon--Avon this morning as that is expected to be around he hottest area. Typically I was there yesterday and am back up here today!


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 Yes Carol is rather nice but i would not follow her about Laugh

briggsy6
19 July 2016 08:53:09

Yes tonight could be somewhat tricky for sleeping to put it mildly. Anyone got any tips?


Location: Uxbridge
doctormog
19 July 2016 08:59:56


 


 Yes Carol is rather nice but i would not follow her about Laugh


Originally Posted by: bledur 


 


She was following me. 


wingman
19 July 2016 09:14:39


Yes tonight could be somewhat tricky for sleeping to put it mildly. Anyone got any tips?


Originally Posted by: briggsy6 


Not tried it myself, but the cold water bottle tip I heard on the radio this morning sounded promising.


Apologies for the off topic remark.....


 

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2016 09:24:18


Yes tonight could be somewhat tricky for sleeping to put it mildly. Anyone got any tips?


Originally Posted by: briggsy6 


Work till very late at the office then check into an air conditioned hotel because too late to get home?


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
cultman1
19 July 2016 15:34:53
Given that the heat will be gone from the UK by Thursday are the models showing a possible repeat performance in the next few weeks (FI) etc? I read elsewhere the Greenland High may be collapsing which will allow The Azores high to nudge in to the UK?
David M Porter
19 July 2016 17:39:36

Just out of interest, does anyone here recall whenabouts it was that the models first began to pick up on this current brief hot spell? From what I recall of the model output early last week, they seemed to be showing more or less a continuation of the recent westerly regime for this week, but by last Thursday the output was picking up on something much warmer coming along for a time.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
David M Porter
19 July 2016 17:40:53

Given that the heat will be gone from the UK by Thursday are the models showing a possible repeat performance in the next few weeks (FI) etc? I read elsewhere the Greenland High may be collapsing which will allow The Azores high to nudge in to the UK?

Originally Posted by: cultman1 


I'd be interested to hear where or who that prediction came from, cultman. We certainly do need to see the back of the Greenland High in order to get a more sustained settled spell.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2016 18:28:41
This evening's GEM shows a potential / nailed on record breaking heatwave just getting going at 240hrs. By 1 August we'd be hitting 40C in Britain and 45C in France. I reckon.

None of the other models show anything similar, but still.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
SJV
19 July 2016 18:36:52

This evening's GEM shows a potential / nailed on record breaking heatwave just getting going at 240hrs. By 1 August we'd be hitting 40C in Britain and 45C in France. I reckon.

None of the other models show anything similar, but still.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


More importantly it shows that summer isn't yet over after this hot snap abates. There's every chance we could get a repeat performance (or performances) in some form over the coming 6-8 weeks 

moomin75
19 July 2016 21:24:24

This evening's GEM shows a potential / nailed on record breaking heatwave just getting going at 240hrs. By 1 August we'd be hitting 40C in Britain and 45C in France. I reckon.

None of the other models show anything similar, but still.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Looks hot but I think you are exaggerating a little. No hotter than the current spell in fact a bit cooler. Certainly not 40c potential. Maybe 30c again though.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
golfingmad
20 July 2016 08:44:33


 


Looks hot but I think you are exaggerating a little. No hotter than the current spell in fact a bit cooler. Certainly not 40c potential. Maybe 30c again though.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


 


I agree. GFS this morning shows a stronger presence of high pressure from the SW, ECM less so. Nothing can be taken too seriously anyway given the chopping and changing, but of the three models GEM can be taken even less seriously than the other two.


Talk of 40c temperatures is also amusing within current output, but that's it. If you want a laugh, look at the nutty NAVGEM, always worth a giggle if there's nothing on telly. 


 


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
moomin75
20 July 2016 11:36:40
Models are slowly but surely firming up in a return to the unsettled changeable pattern we have seen all summer. Yesterday was a one day only special and can't foresee anything remotely similar for the remainder of the summer.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
briggsy6
20 July 2016 11:47:55

For the sake of people who work in offices without air conditioning or who have to travel on the Tube it's probably just as well. It's crazy we don't have a maximum working temperature in this country though unsurprising since we have had successive Governments completely in the pay of powerful big business multinationals and lobby groups such as the I.O.D. and CBI.


Location: Uxbridge
Polar Low
20 July 2016 11:55:18

I  don't agree moomin some good useable weather for the south and s/e at the very least if you care to look at the gfs members


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=306&y=141&run=6&ext=fr&mode=3&sort=0


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=509&y=401&run=6&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=509&y=401&run=6&ext=fr&mode=0&sort=0


 


certainly a little more comfortable for sleeping


 


 


Models are slowly but surely firming up in a return to the unsettled changeable pattern we have seen all summer. Yesterday was a one day only special and can't foresee anything remotely similar for the remainder of the summer.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

moomin75
20 July 2016 12:13:14


I  don't agree moomin some good useable weather for the south and s/e at the very least if you care to look at the gfs members


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=306&y=141&run=6&ext=fr&mode=3&sort=0


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=509&y=401&run=6&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=509&y=401&run=6&ext=fr&mode=0&sort=0


 


certainly a little more comfortable for sleeping


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Indeed. I did say more changeable which is about right. 


I'm not saying it's a write off at present although that could still happen.  I am saying it's a return to more changeable and certainly much cooler.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

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