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Brian Gaze
12 September 2016 06:31:11

The provisional September CET to the 10th is 17.2C which is 2.7C above the average. Tomorrow temperatures are likely to peak at over 30C (86F) and if 31.7C (89F) is reached it will be the hottest September day for 55 years.


The current September CET record is 16.8C. Is there a chance of this challenged?  The Monday 12th September GEFS00z show a cool down later this week but I've noticed several times in the last few months that hot spells aren't well picked up and tend to appear quite quickly. Therefore, I'd not rule out further warm weather later this month.


Note: The chart below will update automatically to the latest available. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Global Warming
12 September 2016 07:23:40

I agree Brian. Hot spells tend to appear in the ensembles at fairly short notice. Currently the output suggests a fairly average second half of September which would not be warm enough for a record CET. But if another warm spell does appear then it could get interesting.


The main thing this month has been that the warm spells have not tended to last that long. The minimum CET is what is giving us a chance of the record right now. Maximums will also be very high over the next few days though.


The minimum CET is currently at 13.4C which is 0.6C above the September record of 12.8C. It is also warmer than July or August which were at 12.4C and 12.5C respectively.


One record we should break is the date record for tomorrow which currently stands at 28.3C. We should easily reach 30C+ tomorrow.


The latest date on which a temperature of 32C was recorded is 19th Sept 1926 with 32.2C.

Bolty
12 September 2016 11:14:20
It would be very interesting to see the warmest September on record, but as GW mentioned, bettering September 2006 is a very big ask. This is especially true when you consider that late September is markedly cooler than the first half is. We would need another big plume to arrive towards the end of the month for there to be a chance of that happening.

At the moment I do think a 16-degree September is very likely though, unless we see a big cool down in the final third.
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TimS
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12 September 2016 13:25:50
What's the target for second place? Top 2 within 11 years of each other is pretty impressive (like the top 2 Aprils).
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Ally Pally Snowman
12 September 2016 14:31:44

Some decent heat already here Gravesend 27.2c not bad for mid September 


 


 

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Bertwhistle
12 September 2016 15:54:21


I agree Brian. Hot spells tend to appear in the ensembles at fairly short notice. Currently the output suggests a fairly average second half of September which would not be warm enough for a record CET. But if another warm spell does appear then it could get interesting.


The main thing this month has been that the warm spells have not tended to last that long. The minimum CET is what is giving us a chance of the record right now. Maximums will also be very high over the next few days though.


The minimum CET is currently at 13.4C which is 0.6C above the September record of 12.8C. It is also warmer than July or August which were at 12.4C and 12.5C respectively.


One record we should break is the date record for tomorrow which currently stands at 28.3C. We should easily reach 30C+ tomorrow.


The latest date on which a temperature of 32C was recorded is 19th Sept 1926 with 32.2C.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Looks like the date record could go on Wed & Thurs if the synoptics are good- fairly low ones at this mid-month-stage.

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Global Warming
12 September 2016 16:39:11

What's the target for second place? Top 2 within 11 years of each other is pretty impressive (like the top 2 Aprils).

Originally Posted by: TimS 


1729 16.6C so also a big ask


There are two years on 16.3C 1865 and 1949


Next it is 1795 16.0


So we would make it into the top 5 if we can achieve at least 16.0C.

Global Warming
12 September 2016 16:41:20


 


Looks like the date record could go on Wed & Thurs if the synoptics are good- fairly low ones at this mid-month-stage.


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


Yes looks quite possible as 30C could be recorded somewhere on each of the next 3 days. The date record is below 29C on all three days.

richardabdn
12 September 2016 16:47:43

Big deal if the London UHI sees 32C. It was reached at Fochabers, even further north than here, in September 1906. That's what I call impressive, and in the 110 years since it's scarcely even been touched this far north at the height of summer. Possibly only in 2003 at Forres. 

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LeedsLad123
12 September 2016 16:56:00


Big deal if the London UHI sees 32C. It was reached at Fochabers, even further north than here, in September 1906. That's what I call impressive, and in the 110 years since it's scarcely even been touched this far north at the height of summer. Possibly only in 2003 at Forres. 


Originally Posted by: richardabdn 


The urban heat island has minimal if any effect on daytime temperatures.

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four
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12 September 2016 17:03:46


 


The urban heat island has minimal if any effect on daytime temperatures.


Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


It does, because the daytime heating starts from a higher point, and concrete and tarmac choked with traffic heat up quicker in the sun than heather, grass and spruce trees

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bledur
12 September 2016 17:36:34



It does, because the daytime heating starts from a higher point, and concrete and tarmac choked with traffic heat up quicker in the sun than heather, grass and spruce trees


Originally Posted by: four 

You would think that , but it is not that noticeable compared to the storage effect for nightime high temps . I have been up in the highlands of Scotland several times in hot spells and it is amazing how the temp rockets from a comparitively low start.

TimS
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12 September 2016 17:52:55
London certainly has a night UHI and I think on very sunny days must also have a daytime UHI in some built up areas. That won't have changed in scale or nature since at least the 1960s, and in Central London the 19th century, indeed the centre of the city is a lot greener now than it was post-war.

But if we're saying any record is invalid because it's anthropogenic we might as well discard anything recorded near crop or pastureland, managed forestry or drained areas.

The London basin would in any case be the hottest part of the country with no city there. It's in the SE corner, at sea level but sheltered from sea breezes on almost all sides. Hence it shows up as warmest on this week's model output which makes no adjustment for UHIs.
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LeedsLad123
12 September 2016 19:19:34



It does, because the daytime heating starts from a higher point, and concrete and tarmac choked with traffic heat up quicker in the sun than heather, grass and spruce trees


Originally Posted by: four 


No, it doesn't. London's central weather stations are only warmer at night - there is little to no daytime temperature difference. 

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Gavin P
12 September 2016 19:30:18

Tonight's EC 12z looks like its setting up another plume at 240hrs... If we do get another hot spell in around ten days time then it really could be game on to beat the CET record.


GFS a lot cooler and much more unsettled though.

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Hungry Tiger
12 September 2016 19:33:44


Tonight's EC 12z looks like its setting up another plume at 240hrs... If we do get another hot spell in around ten days time then it really could be game on to beat the CET record.


GFS a lot cooler and much more unsettled though.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Great stuff.


 

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Ally Pally Snowman
12 September 2016 19:35:44

Gravesend peaked at 27.5c today . Edinburgh got to 23.1c not far off its warmest day of the year. 

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ARTzeman
12 September 2016 19:57:12

Only managed 23. 2c at 14:12 herein Peasedown St John..  Will get up to 25/26c. Tomorrow at the most for this area.  With a cloudy afternoon...   





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ozone_aurora
12 September 2016 21:30:40

Weather Underground forecasts 30 C for London this Thursday.

TimS
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12 September 2016 21:41:19
It's nice it's not now looking like a one day wonder.

That would make quite a good tongue twister.
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Brian Gaze
13 September 2016 06:18:42

GEFS picking up another warm up next week. September CET must be at risk now.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Sinky1970
13 September 2016 06:48:36
The BBC's forecast has gone off on one saying it's going to reach 25 degrees today & only 20 degrees tomorrow, what a waste that site is.
Ally Pally Snowman
13 September 2016 07:34:17

Biggin Hill 23c at 8.20am . 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Global Warming
13 September 2016 08:47:15

Arpege has quite a wide area seeing 30C today with the peak around 31C in the Gravesend area 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=18&mode=31&map=330


Tomorrow the model shows temperatures peaking just above 32C in north west Norfolk not far from where I am


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=42&mode=31&map=330


Still very hot on Thursday with 30-31C quite widely in the south east


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=66&mode=31&map=330


Huge change by Friday with the peak just touching 21C


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=90&mode=31&map=330


So could see the hottest September day for 55 years tomorrow.


The temperature has only exceeded 32C in the UK twice after the 10th of September:


32.2C on 11th September 1919 and the same figure on 19th September 1926. We could get close to that figure tomorrow.

Ally Pally Snowman
13 September 2016 09:06:00

Shoreham AP  26c 9.50am,  the date record nearly broken already


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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