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Ally Pally Snowman
13 September 2016 18:14:46

I'm pretty suspicious of that 34.4C figure, to be honest. The hourly figures from Gravesend don't support it, barring a highly freakish rise and fall:

1100: 29.2C
1200: 31.5C
1300: 32.0C
1400: 31.4C
1500: 31.4C
1600: 32.0C
1700: 30.5C

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


We get this every year with Gravesend if it was a dodgy site the met just wouldn't use it.


 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Dougie
13 September 2016 18:46:37

Those North Kent stations are sensitive to wind direction, and if Gravesend picked up a Southerly over the downs for half an hour or so in an otherwise SE flow the temperature could easily have spiked. Look at the variability even in the hourly readings. If anything the 2pm and 3pm hiatus looks odd, right in the middle of what under sunny skies should be a parabolic heating curve.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


As the crow flies, my location is just a few miles from Gravesend. There were three temperature spikes between 13.00 and 16.30hrs, brought about by a fluctuating wind direction and some high cloud, which all but obscured the sun for a while. I see no reason to doubt the figures.

Ha'way the lads
Bertwhistle
13 September 2016 19:40:22

All this suspicion.... How reliable do you think the 1906 and 1911 data were really? And anyway, what exactly constitutes a perfect 34.4? What does it feel like? What is the god thermometer that has the answer?


One thing is clear- September has not matched the recent trend of July record-August record- October record- November record. It's been the odd one out as I said in an earlier post and we'd be daft to think it couldn't fall. Today beat 17 of the July date records, 14 of the August date records and 25 of the June date records. September has the power to deliver.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
13 September 2016 19:53:43

Rothamsted 31C, Stoneyhurst 24C, Pershore (closest to Malvern) 23C. All 3 likely to be warm tonight although more so in the East. 

Shame the CET doesn't include Gravesend.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

 Thanks Tim. A bit of a spread there and a shame only one out of the three excelled. I suspected the Western sites might be lower. But if they can all retain heat overnight that will push the average up. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Caz
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13 September 2016 19:56:57

Those North Kent stations are sensitive to wind direction, and if Gravesend picked up a Southerly over the downs for half an hour or so in an otherwise SE flow the temperature could easily have spiked. Look at the variability even in the hourly readings. If anything the 2pm and 3pm hiatus looks odd, right in the middle of what under sunny skies should be a parabolic heating curve.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

The 2 to 3 pm figures struck me as odd. I'd expect them to be the highest. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
TimS
  • TimS
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13 September 2016 20:11:31


 Thanks Tim. A bit of a spread there and a shame only one out of the three excelled. I suspected the Western sites might be lower. But if they can all retain heat overnight that will push the average up. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Pershore managed 24C in the end. So 26C average. With average min tonight of, I reckon, 16C that would be a CET daily figure of 21C. With a min of 14C that's 20C. 

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Gusty
13 September 2016 20:57:27

Again..an effortless 30+ has been breached courtesy of a relatively short lived plume. This time it has been exceeded with ease in Mid September.


Heat records continue to get broken one after the other with increased frequency.


If 34.4c can be achieved on a Mid September afternoon goodness knows what could be achieved if synoptics aligned perfectly in July or early August.


Its no longer a matter of if 40c (104f) can be achieved in the UK...its a matter of when. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
13 September 2016 21:12:03
Tomorrow looks interesting if the Arome high def is anything to go by. It correctly pinpointed the hotspots in and around London and Kent today, with a small dot around Faversham looking like the hottest (showed 34C).

Tomorrow the pattern is very different. Here's 3pm:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/aromezoom.php?mode=0&x=3717.18&y=498.62&ech=25&zoom=1.88 

Large swathes of the country in the bright red 24-28C zone, but a big area of much more intense heat over East Anglia. Just West of Norwich shows a peak of 33C. So 33C at Norwich is my bet for tomorrow. Quite a sharp dividing line between the 30+ and mid 20s into the Wash and Fens too.

(WRF is showing similar with also some 30C peaks in the North West).

By the way the mins tonight don't go below 21-23C in central London and parts of East and South Kent. Tomorrow night them looks a little cooler I'm the far SE but warmer over the midlands and west.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
moomin75
13 September 2016 21:22:06


Again..an effortless 30+ has been breached courtesy of a relatively short lived plume. This time it has been exceeded with ease in Mid September.


Heat records continue to get broken one after the other with increased frequency.


If 34.4c can be achieved on a Mid September afternoon goodness knows what could be achieved if synoptics aligned perfectly in July or early August.


Its no longer a matter of if 40c (104f) can be achieved in the UK...its a matter of when. 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 

I was thinking exactly that Steve, and to be honest, I think it will happen in the next few years. Also, I think not only can 40c be achieved, I think it could be exceeded with the right setup.


If we got one of these plumes lasting a little longer than a day or two, with dry ground, in July, I see no reason why we couldn't have days on end above 40c in the next decade.


I think a new all-time record high for the UK will be reached sooner rather than later.


Just how high could it go? I don't even think 43-44c is out of the question. It's incredible times that we live in.


I was also thinking how high (theoretically) could we go in winter. December last year was a record warm month - and that was with a lot of wet weather around.


We easily breached 18c in December with thick cloud cover. With southerly drift in December and clear skies, I don't think 21c is out of the question.


We are living in a warmer period for sure - and I really do believe records will continue to fall over the coming years.


Remember it was just a couple of years ago that we reached 30c in October (albeit 1st October) and just last year that we had a record warm November day.


Exciting times (if a little scary!).

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Whether Idle
13 September 2016 21:27:03


I was thinking exactly that Steve, and to be honest, I think it will happen in the next few years. Also, I think not only can 40c be achieved, I think it could be exceeded with the right setup.


If we got one of these plumes lasting a little longer than a day or two, with dry ground, in July, I see no reason why we couldn't have days on end above 40c in the next decade.


I think a new all-time record high for the UK will be reached sooner rather than later.


Just how high could it go? I don't even think 43-44c is out of the question. It's incredible times that we live in.


I was also thinking how high (theoretically) could we go in winter. December last year was a record warm month - and that was with a lot of wet weather around.


We easily breached 18c in December with thick cloud cover. With southerly drift in December and clear skies, I don't think 21c is out of the question.


We are living in a warmer period for sure - and I really do believe records will continue to fall over the coming years.


Remember it was just a couple of years ago that we reached 30c in October (albeit 1st October) and just last year that we had a record warm November day.


Exciting times (if a little scary!).


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


The sun has the equivalent strength today  as at March 30.  40c plus is coming very soon to the UK, probably next summer.  As you say, 43c is not out of the question. 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Jiries
13 September 2016 21:39:00


 


The sun has the equivalent strength today  as at March 30.  40c plus is coming very soon to the UK, probably next summer.  As you say, 43c is not out of the question. 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Interesting discussion.  I am not sure if 43C can be ever reached here, look at Toronto which is further south latitude than us only hit 41C 105F due to the lakes stopping the city from getting higher than 41C.  I think 41C would be the result as we got huge ocean next to us and North Sea on other side.  Last year the models was showing 42C here on 1st July but was moderated to 35-37C forecasts on the charts. That the first time they show 42C on the map here.


Why Epsom never mentioned on any topic as it had recorded 2nd highest at 35.2C on 2nd September?  Surrey weather book mentioned Epsom recorded 35.2C on the 2nd and 35.6C in Yorkshire on the 1st.   Why they got it that far north while the SE like Epsom got 35C but no where reach 35-38C? Which I am sure 36-38C was reached on 1st or 2nd September? Epsom is not the hottest place in SE as of Gravesend and few places in Kent.

moomin75
13 September 2016 21:49:25


 


Interesting discussion.  I am not sure if 43C can be ever reached here, look at Toronto which is further south latitude than us only hit 41C 105F due to the lakes stopping the city from getting higher than 41C.  I think 41C would be the result as we got huge ocean next to us and North Sea on other side.  Last year the models was showing 42C here on 1st July but was moderated to 35-37C forecasts on the charts. That the first time they show 42C on the map here.


Why Epsom never mentioned on any topic as it had recorded 2nd highest at 35.2C on 2nd September?  Surrey weather book mentioned Epsom recorded 35.2C on the 2nd and 35.6C in Yorkshire on the 1st.   Why they got it that far north while the SE like Epsom got 35C but no where reach 35-38C? Which I am sure 36-38C was reached on 1st or 2nd September? Epsom is not the hottest place in SE as of Gravesend and few places in Kent.


Originally Posted by: Jiries 

I'm sure it's reached above 43c in your shed a few times George?

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Charmhills
13 September 2016 21:51:01

Warmest rubbish in here!


There is a climate forum you know for this sort of stuff.


Our weather is no different from what is was 100 years + ago with both record highs and record lows.


Both in extremes in rainfall and drought.


Its weather guys and that is all it is.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
moomin75
13 September 2016 21:52:44


Warmest rubbish in here!


There is a climate forum you know for this sort of stuff.


Our weather is no different from what is was 100 years + ago with both record highs and record lows.


Both in extremes in rainfall and drought.


Its weather guys and that is all it is.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

We're talking about record temps and how high it could go Duane? I see no reason why we can't discuss it here.


And yes, you are right, there was exceptional September heat in 1906 too - so I'm not suggesting climate change.


Incidentally, how many times in the last 100 years or so has the hottest day of the year been recorded in September? One for Kev perhaps?

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Charmhills
13 September 2016 21:58:08


We're talking about record temps and how high it could go Duane? I see no reason why we can't discuss it here.


And yes, you are right, there was exceptional September heat in 1906 too - so I'm not suggesting climate change.


Incidentally, how many times in the last 100 years or so has the hottest day of the year been recorded in September? One for Kev perhaps?


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Check out the weather records that go back nearly 300 years!


A lot of data mind buts its interesting.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Jiries
13 September 2016 21:59:26


I'm sure it's reached above 43c in your shed a few times George?


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Many times and I am sure it would reach 50C today as it does when is over 30C outside.  The latest ensembles keep us in a slight above average zone so that would safely put new highest Sept CET record.  Wouldn't be surprised if they increase the temps to mid 20's at the end of the month.  Like you said one day we will get a 40C or over since the last 2 years the ensembles members had been easily reaching near or at 20C uppers, that was so hard to achieve it except in few hot summers years that we know.

Retron
14 September 2016 06:31:38


Our weather is no different from what is was 100 years + ago with both record highs and record lows.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Can't speak for 100 years ago, but it's certainly changed massively in the last 30 years: loads of warm records set since then, very few cold ones in comparison. No more winter Scandi high/easterly setups and so on.


If nothing had changed we'd be setting roughly as many cold records as warm ones and that's clearly not the case.

Leysdown, north Kent
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
14 September 2016 06:41:10
You have to remember that even hinting at the idea climate could possibly have changed is like mentioning Tiananmen Square on Chinese social media.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
LeedsLad123
14 September 2016 07:10:00

You have to remember that even hinting at the idea climate could possibly have changed is like mentioning Tiananmen Square on Chinese social media.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Climate change? Ha! I'll believe that when Bangladesh is under water. Until then - ha!


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
14 September 2016 07:13:40


 


Can't speak for 100 years ago, but it's certainly changed massively in the last 30 years: loads of warm records set since then, very few cold ones in comparison. No more winter Scandi high/easterly setups and so on.


If nothing had changed we'd be setting roughly as many cold records as warm ones and that's clearly not the case.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


Indeed  regarding the CET just in the last 20 years we've had the warmest April, July, August, September, October,  November, December, Spring , Autumn and Year. These records go back to the 1660s. It's staggering how warm it is at the moment. The last cold record was February 1947.


 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
14 September 2016 07:16:58


 


Can't speak for 100 years ago, but it's certainly changed massively in the last 30 years: loads of warm records set since then, very few cold ones in comparison. No more winter Scandi high/easterly setups and so on.


If nothing had changed we'd be setting roughly as many cold records as warm ones and that's clearly not the case.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Spot on. it's clear more warm records than cold records have been set in the UK during the last 30 years.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
14 September 2016 07:53:22
Getting the monthly record still looks a very tall order. It just hasn't been consistently warm enough in the first half of the month, and the warmth has been too far South East.

We are at 17.0 as of the 12th. Assuming the usual downward adjustment that's probably 16.8, bang on the 2006 record. So we would need to average 16.8 for the rest of the month.

Taking into account likely daily CET of 21C for each of the 13-15th, we would then be at 17.65 for the first half. The RRR would then be 16.0, way warmer than most averages for the whole month, and warmer than many July and August averages. Even with one more spell into the mid 20s I think it's too much of a tough ask.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Tim A
14 September 2016 08:13:41


;Surrey weather book mentioned Epsom recorded 35.2C on the 2nd and 35.6C in Yorkshire on the 1st.   Why they got it that far north while the SE like Epsom got 35C but no where reach 35-38C? Which I am sure 36-38C was reached on 1st or 2nd September? Epsom is not the hottest place in SE as of Gravesend and few places in Kent.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



I hope that record never gets broken, its not often we can claim a heat record in Yorkshire so would like to hang onto it. Past and present records show that a large geographic area has the potential to achieve a record high based on the exact synoptic, from the flatlands of Eastern Yorkshire to the Severn Valley and across to Kent. Brogdale seems to be in form these days, does anyone know when it starting providing readings?






Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Maunder Minimum
14 September 2016 08:25:13


 


Can't speak for 100 years ago, but it's certainly changed massively in the last 30 years: loads of warm records set since then, very few cold ones in comparison. No more winter Scandi high/easterly setups and so on.


If nothing had changed we'd be setting roughly as many cold records as warm ones and that's clearly not the case.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Localised weather variation is not of itself indicative of climate change and that is the problem.


Yesterday for example, was the warmest September day since 1911 - but that means there was an even hotter September spell 105 years ago.

New world order coming.
John S2
14 September 2016 08:37:51


 


Localised weather variation is not of itself indicative of climate change ....


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Taken in isolation this statement is correct, but if the mean of a normal distribution increases then this significantly increases the probability of extremes at the high end.

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