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Karl Guille
17 January 2017 11:51:13


Even out as far as Sunday Europe is still quite cold, any wind comming off the near continent will feel raw:


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_135_2mtmp.png?cb=343


 


Originally Posted by: hobensotwo 


 


The cold over nearby France is only just getting established and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see it hanging around into the early or middle part of next week. Temp currently 7 degrees here in Guernsey and I would expect this to drop by a couple of degrees as the week goes on (1 or 2 degrees colder yet in Jersey under the shadow of the Cotentin a Peninsular)! Oh what could have been!


St. Sampson
Guernsey
Solar Cycles
17 January 2017 12:43:54


 


 2 weeks ago - less than that - people were saying that there were no signs of anything cold or wintry for January. It amazes me how people can keep coming up with these acts of dodgy clairvoyancy.


Originally Posted by: NickR 

Indeed, but it was a mere flash in the pan  Nick and I'm referring to a cold spell not further 1-3 day wonders.

Norseman
17 January 2017 12:44:36


 


Why better position? need to be more northerly for high pressure? - looks like the GFS has delayed the return to zonal by a couple days - still looks cold for the south until next Monday and Tuesday now:



Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

I suspect that Quantum means a better angle with warmth going from South to North rather than SW to NE as shown in the chart he posted.

bledur
17 January 2017 13:43:27


High Pressure often proves more stubborn than predicted, also a slight change in position can have dramatic effect as the SE is aware currently.
There isn't a proper jet stream to do any pushing just now - it's all over the place so being 'certain' of something a week out is unwise.


Originally Posted by: four 


 


 Yes i think that is true and why forecasts seem rather more innaccurate lately  as it has been a fairly unusual weather pattern.

llamedos
17 January 2017 15:07:23

Just for clarification there is most certainly not a cold bias in this particular thread in the forum as far as Admin and most members are concerned.


We are privileged to have some knowledgeable members on the forum, the majority of whom make their comments in a rational way and provide substantive analysis to support their opinions. Almost, without exception, they say what they see whether that be mild,cold or something in between.


Less than a week ago a majority of the models were indicating the possibility of a period of exceptionally cold weather affecting large, if not most parts of the country towards the end of this week, but from memory there were no extravagant claims that this would actually manifest; history is still to decide if the models were correct, albeit very unlikely.


On the other hand if a single run from any model suggests that a period of mobility is looking possible at T+ then there's an almost inevitability that some members will make claims about how long a period of zonality, that hasn't even start, will last.  


So therein lies the problem, when there's a suggestion of somewhat milder conditions a few members start posting prognosis as if they're set in stone, when they clearly aren't.


As a Mod I'm totally impartial when it comes to what is delivered weather wise on a daily basis, and I'm disappointed by certain members who clearly don't want to discuss the model output, but just disrupt this thread.    


  


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Quantum
17 January 2017 16:24:12

Netweather GFS Image


If this trend continues we will be seeing very different charts in a few days time. The angle of the attack face of the low is much closer to southerly. Once you get to southerly or have a slight easterly component it becomes more likely the low will undercut than push through. Also note the 552 isopleth; each run we see it getting further and further north.    


 


Big picture people, big picture.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Brian Gaze
17 January 2017 16:28:40

As I suggested earlier high pressure may still have a hand in our weather next week.



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Justin W
17 January 2017 16:33:04
Subtle but significant changes on the 12z. Zonality delayed again in the South and East on this run.
Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Gavin D
17 January 2017 16:44:39

High pressure in no rush to leave if UKMO is right


UKMOPEU12_96_1.pngUKMOPEU12_120_1.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.png


Quantum
17 January 2017 17:16:50

So we are now past 192 hours and it is still low single figures for the south.


Netweather GFS Image


 


I don't understand how people remain so convinced the atlantic will come back early next week?!


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
The Beast from the East
17 January 2017 17:29:46

Subtle but significant changes on the 12z. Zonality delayed again in the South and East on this run.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 


We could be moving towards a Bartlett!


UKMO has a quick sinker


It is pointless hoping for a delay as there is no prospect of an undercut. We are better off sinking this high asap and waiting for the SSW, which maybe our last hope of another cold spell this season, IMO of course


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
sizzle
17 January 2017 17:33:33

our last hope of a cold spell will hopefully be if this SSW NORTHREN BLOCKING comes off but knowing our luck we ill be on the MILD side,

The Beast from the East
17 January 2017 17:40:07

Some very mild and very wet GEFS members. I think this thread is going to become very quiet soon.


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
warrenb
17 January 2017 17:57:09

Hopefully 


Bertwhistle
17 January 2017 18:02:34


our last hope of a cold spell will hopefully be if this SSW NORTHREN BLOCKING comes off but knowing our luck we ill be on the MILD side,


Originally Posted by: sizzle 


If it does I suppose we'll get an easterly in October- not much use- like last year. I'm not convinced all SSW effects are delayed to within such a short timescale, as the temporally-limited research suggests. Hidden positive feedbacks could lead to later outcomes. Not all bad news- as that same uncertainty could bring about earlier or later freezes as well as fires; just not in October, I guess.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Retron
17 January 2017 18:07:00
Now this is more interesting - a new development in GEFS tonight:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1 

Two clusters by the 24th. One which follows the last few days (ie bringing mild mush), but the other (including the op and control) extending colder conditions for 2 more days. I wonder if the EPS will follow suit tonight?
Leysdown, north Kent
Justin W
17 January 2017 18:09:59


 


We could be moving towards a Bartlett!


UKMO has a quick sinker


It is pointless hoping for a delay as there is no prospect of an undercut. We are better off sinking this high asap and waiting for the SSW, which maybe our last hope of another cold spell this season, IMO of course


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Why is it pointless hoping for a delay? I'm happy with benign weather, thank you, even if it's not cold.


And it isn't just hope. The delay is modelled.


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Bertwhistle
17 January 2017 18:10:11

Now this is more interesting - a new development in GEFS tonight:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

Two clusters by the 24th. One which follows the last few days (ie bringing mild mush), but the other (including the op and control) extending colder conditions for 2 more days. I wonder if the EPS will follow suit tonight?

Originally Posted by: Retron 


I like the % snow risk there- I know it equates to the 'snow row' runs but somehow I can gauge % in my mind more easily. A snow row run of 2 seems to raise my hopes. 10% gives me a sensible cold face-bath.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Gooner
17 January 2017 18:30:38

Nothing overly mild on the GFS 6z , the odd day off double figures but generally average or even below


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


JACKO4EVER
17 January 2017 18:38:30
I don't know what the obsession is with cool or mild temperatures? There is nothing remotely of interest in either camp for the foreseeable future just the perpetuation of dross.
The GFS paints a cooler picture on the 6z but overall of no noteworthy interest in the whole.
Gooner
17 January 2017 18:45:37


HP dominating , dry and chilly one would imagine


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Arcus
17 January 2017 18:49:03
The only common theme this winter seems to be the boomerang High that seems determined to re-assert itself near or over our shores at every opportunity. This has the effect of scuppering both the (prolonged) cold and the mild zonal outcomes. I mentioned this in mid-December around the time when certain posters were talking up prolonged zonality around Xmas and beyond, and it will be interesting to see if the same derailing of an Atlantic-driven pattern occurs once more.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Justin W
17 January 2017 18:54:52

Wonder what the EPS will show but the ECM op has a quite startling evolution:



Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
nsrobins
17 January 2017 18:58:28
The charge into mild zonal mobility is gathering pace I see.
😂😂😂
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO

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