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Is it a general rule that unless the models show an easterly with -15c 850's then winter is over? The charts are at least showing seasonal winter weather, better than the zonal gunk we had last year. There was no cross model agreement in the reliable timeframe so hardly convincing.
Talkimg about models which one has performed the best over the last 10 days? I know the ECM was showing the Easterly that's disappear ed but is it fair to say UKMO & GFS not exactly covered themselves in glory?
Matt Hugo Tweeted again - can't keep up:
Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 23m23 minutes ago
EC ENS support GFS ENS next wk is a pattern that dominated Dec. High pressure yes but it is just to the S or SE mild W or SW'ly over the top
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So easterly off for next week ? makes me wonder if we ever will get one again!? It keeps being forecasted by the gfs but always flips and get's downgraded. - Or should I ignore Matt Hugo's Tweets?1
UKMO looking fairly settled at t168 though some patchy rain can't be ruled out under some of the thicker cloud
WAR HAWK - Any more media posts in the media thread. The fact you cited one such post and wrote another media reference as a response after my post above either means you missed my post somehow or you're on the wind-up. Either way, no more, please.
There never seems to be dramatic shift to cold. Its always the other way.
Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East
Let's hope so but these northerly's are only one or two day events. We need an easterly for sustained cold.
PS (Just saw your post in time) before it got deleted and deleted my post as I saw Nick's above comment.
http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim
De Bilt.
Originally Posted by: Gusty
Continuing the recent trend: cold until around mid-week before the easterly fails, but followed by what?
The trends today haven't been good for renewed cold but, as we now all know, a week is a very long time when trying to predict the behaviour of that vast and very complicated fluid that we call our atmosphere.
I disagree. The events of early February 2005, when then models very quickly switched to a cold outcome having seemingly backed away from it, is proof that what there can be sudden flips to cold. Andy Woodcock will recall this episode well I should imagine.
A but discouraged by the uptick in the ECM set. I think we can with 90% certainty right off an easterly now - the opportunity has passed us by this time. Further ahead we're looking at retrogression but a theme is developing where it all looks ok at say D8 but for some reason the developing Greenland heights fall short of true HLB and it slumps back SE. Hope I'm wrong and plenty of detail to sort out yet.
Now to the 18Z and it will be Sod's law to see a full on Easterly on the pub run OP 😉
Woah!! One quiet Atlantic Ocean!? We have perfect opportunity for a scandi block to build or GH!? - I've never seen the Atlantic ocean this quiet before in January ,have you!?
Originally Posted by: tallyho_83
Certainly no signs of a northerly wind as John Hammond had suggested.
T+222 More energy coming off the North America at this stage. I'm assuming (I could be totally wrong) this will ride over the top of the 'UK high'
I spend all year waiting for an easterly and this one is set to last for at least a week but I'm not entirely sure that I want it now!Originally Posted by: Karl Guille
Rubbish easterly but possible trough disruption
Northerly incoming
">http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017011318/gfs-0-234.png?18
Originally Posted by: warrenb
I can't see how a northerly can come out of that - looks like the HP will sink into central Europe again to allow us with SW winds!?
In terms of uppers it's still there at T+336. The flabby easterly that won't die.
Evening All -Im signing off from the MOD for a while as I think for now ive had enough of looking the models only to be let down at the last minute-final scores on the doors for this recent period-ECM 9 This model has been great all the way from day 10 when it had the Scandi ridge - the precision & accuracy has been top notch, sadly though the 'global' & indeed regional inaccuracy at day 6/7/8 has been the achilies heel for the UK being that day 4 & 5 ( from 6 & 7 ) have adjusted painfully about 300 miles south- nothing in the grand scheme of things but enough to change the surface temps in england & debilt upwards by about 4 degrees so what was once modelled at 0c daytime maxima & that 'perfect' continental winters cold is now just chilly 4/5c modified air...GFS - 6 The GFS never really bought into the Easterly at day 6,7,8 & had to be dragged back to the amplified pattern after being Way way to flat - once it got the longwave pattern correct about day 6 its been 'ok' ish but volatileUKMO -9This is the UKMETS winter- it was onboard amplification right from 168 however was always a toned down ECM & not 1 run had a decent easterly showing, even when GFS & ECM alligned for a day - the UKMO wasnt interested - well done!Moving foward there is still ( Day 7-9) there is still a whiff of a continental flow perculating around the models - which sends the temps back down to 1-2c maxima - however I will put that on the back burner for now - I think we have a fair shot at the retrograde getting far enough west to keep it cold to day 10 & within that as said enough scope to pull a gentle easterly- ( like feb 86 )I guess the big perhaps HUGE news today is that the SSW forecast thats manifested in my zonal means charts over the next few days - I cant remember who I said to to watch the models it may have been @feb1991blizzard however the forecast is as follows -SSW over Russia to hit the pole around 19th-23rd of Jan - The zonal wind at that time is expected to be around 40 M/S westerly which is a tad above normal - The deceleration curve of the 10HPA 60N zonal wind post warming is approx 8 M/S per day-Therefor my forecast would be an official classification of a SSW ( zonal wind reversal @ 60N 10HPA ) for the last couple of days of Jan- or if its a double dip SSW where theres a big drop in winds before the final drop into negative the landing zone will be around Feb 1-4The initial & very early assessment is that its a wave 1 induced warming not wave 2 this is because this is likely to be a vortex displacement not a vortex split- likely blocking pattern is Greenland slightly west based with low scandi heights -UK windflow therefor Northerly/ North westerly- poss NE if we are lucky.There could be an immediate troposheric response circa very late Jan however the usual lagged response is more likely 7-10 days so early doors feb week 1 / week 2--EPO ridge & Greenland block is favoured-until then unless we scrape deeper cold sooner or the retrograde at the end of the week is better im signing off MOD until the SSW comes to fruition...Remember the dates SSW end of Jan....S
