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Gooner
Sunday, February 5, 2017 7:46:17 PM

Good D7 chart from UKMO

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


moomin75
Sunday, February 5, 2017 7:49:39 PM

Some days you just wish you could smash up the ECM.

Poor form for 5 days - now a 6th day, the model every day has corrected the 120 > 96 & the 96 > 72 to the UKMO..

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

With respect Steve you can't just dismiss a model because it's not showing what you want it to show. Siding with GEM because you like what it shows is pure cherry picking surely? Have a lot of respect for you but you are cherry picking a bit in my view.


And yes before anyone says - something I have been guilty of too.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
fairweather
Sunday, February 5, 2017 7:56:59 PM

Well I wouldn't disregard any of the charts tonight whether they are  flavour of the month or not. I've rarely seen such disagreement at three days on. They are even disagreeing within themselves at three days in the ensembles. Look at the sudden dip in GFS at three days! Anybody that thinks they can predict anything other than this coming week there will be an Easterly element and on the cold side is being unrealistic. We'll all give it a go though!

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Steve Murr
Sunday, February 5, 2017 7:57:26 PM


With respect Steve you can't just dismiss a model because it's not showing what you want it to show. Siding with GEM because you like what it shows is pure cherry picking surely? Have a lot of respect for you but you are cherry picking a bit in my view.


And yes before anyone says - something I have been guilty of too.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


hi - that would be correct however if you look at my post @19:33 you will see I posted the model performance for 5 days & the ECM was shocking !


I would never post anything without back up... :)


https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/87058-model-output-discussion-25th-jan-the-final-third-of-winter-beckons/?page=89


best

doctor snow
Sunday, February 5, 2017 7:59:18 PM

where do you get these charts from met chart viewer not working at mo on here 


Better chance of snow from UKMO extended



Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

doctormog
Sunday, February 5, 2017 8:03:34 PM


where do you get these charts from met chart viewer not working at mo on here 


Originally Posted by: doctor snow 


https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/


Or specifically for the UKMO 168hr chart: https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/2017/2017020512/ukm2.2017021212.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Essan
Sunday, February 5, 2017 8:07:29 PM


4C with patchy drizzle or sleet from a leaden sky is what easterlies and a blocking High usually produce in winter.
No idea why UK weather forums pore over charts hoping for any chance of chilly drizzle in a week's time.


Originally Posted by: four 



I totally disagree!!!!


In my experience, 2C with patchy drizzle or sleet from a leaden sky is what easterlies and a blocking High usually produce in winter

But I concur that I too have no idea why UK weather forums pore over charts hoping for any chance of chilly drizzle in a week's time.


looks like some very dull, grey, weather to come

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Maunder Minimum
Sunday, February 5, 2017 8:16:34 PM


With respect Steve you can't just dismiss a model because it's not showing what you want it to show. Siding with GEM because you like what it shows is pure cherry picking surely? Have a lot of respect for you but you are cherry picking a bit in my view.


And yes before anyone says - something I have been guilty of too.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I disagree Moomin - ECM from what I have seen of it has had a pretty poor winter record for these parts. Maybe the stats will show otherwise.


But I recall in January that ECM was showing a decent easterly at t+144 when all the other models were showing the HP cell slipping south. ECM was wrong then - and on that occasion, the cold rampers (me included) were praying it was right.


So if it was wrong then, it can be wrong now.

New world order coming.
Ally Pally Snowman
Sunday, February 5, 2017 8:31:57 PM

Ecm Means aren't great so the OP obviously has some support . Squeaky bum time.


 At day 8


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1922.html


 


Day 4 they look ok though 


 


 http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem962.html


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
Sunday, February 5, 2017 8:32:16 PM

Here's the ECM op run t850s and ECM mean for the same time point:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.giF

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1682.gif


Safe to say the op was probably one of the milder options


Aberdeen http://meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?lat=57.2&lon=-2.3


London http://meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?x=306&y=141&ville=Londres 


So, the op - a trendsetter or an anomaly? Time will tell!

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Karl Guille
Sunday, February 5, 2017 8:39:55 PM
The Op was actually the coldest on day 7!!
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Ally Pally Snowman
Sunday, February 5, 2017 8:40:56 PM

Dutch ensembles show Op pretty much slap bang with the mean for most of the run. Not sure what to make of it really . More runs needed 


 


http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gavin D
Sunday, February 5, 2017 8:46:16 PM

The Op has clearly gone off on one but at the same time a steady rise in the 850's towards mid month getting to around +2


doctormog
Sunday, February 5, 2017 8:46:18 PM

The Op was actually the coldest on day 7!!
Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 

">http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png


 


Yes, for the Netherlands but absolutely not for many parts of the UK. It would be pretty cold in the middle of that high pressure. I suspect if the t2m ensemble values existed for the northern parts of the UK the op would be one of the mildest at the same time point.c

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Ally Pally Snowman
Sunday, February 5, 2017 8:49:26 PM


The Op has clearly gone off on one but at the same time a steady rise in the 850's towards mid month getting to around +2



Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Wow massive outlier for London, but the ensembles show a warming trend that we don't want tosee. Basically we have to hope both the the ecm Op an its ensembles are wrong and the other models are right. We'll probably find out tomorrow morning.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Chiltern Blizzard
Sunday, February 5, 2017 9:03:29 PM


The Op has clearly gone off on one but at the same time a steady rise in the 850's towards mid month getting to around +2



Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Quite a change from only a day or so ago when the mean was sub -5c for 3-4 days with standard deviation dipping below -10c...  Not a good sign.

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Steve Murr
Sunday, February 5, 2017 9:19:09 PM
doctormog
Sunday, February 5, 2017 9:24:20 PM


Nice link that one Steve and yes pretty chilly t850s by 120hrs

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
nsrobins
Sunday, February 5, 2017 9:28:47 PM

UKMO 850s -120

Very cold

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

">http://ukmo.3bmeteo.com/mappe/movie/movie.php?dire=UKMWORD_12&base=GH+T850_EUROPA


That's a decent addition to the chart armoury Steve.


From what I've seen this evening, I'd say the ECM OP and some of its ENS have incorrectly phased the upper low swinging NW with the N jet arm and shunted the SH way too far South mid-term. 


Whether it can be appropriately discounted will be answered by 6.30am tomorrow morning.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
The Beast from the East
Sunday, February 5, 2017 9:32:59 PM

ECM often picks up the next trend and I fear this could be another occasion. To be fair the GEFS were also mixed. Time to sharpen those razor blades!

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
doctormog
Sunday, February 5, 2017 9:43:18 PM


ECM often picks up the next trend and I fear this could be another occasion. To be fair the GEFS were also mixed. Time to sharpen those razor blades!


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


The GEFS were the coldest of the winter here 


Anyway, the 18z GFS op run is starting to come out. Will it continue the little upgrade tweaks or move in the ECM direction? We'll know soon enough.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Hippydave
Sunday, February 5, 2017 9:53:25 PM


-10 850s just fringing the east coast by Wednesday - looks alright so far....

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Karl Guille
Sunday, February 5, 2017 9:54:56 PM
Broadly similar to the 12z so far on the GFS 18z at T78
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017020518/gfs-0-78.png?18 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
picturesareme
Sunday, February 5, 2017 9:59:41 PM

UKMO 850s -120

Very cold

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

">http://ukmo.3bmeteo.com/mappe/movie/movie.php?dire=UKMWORD_12&base=GH+T850_EUROPA


for northern england and scotland yes.

ballamar
Sunday, February 5, 2017 10:01:19 PM
Can't really moan this at 78 hours
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn782.gif 
Even if some are focused on the end before the beginning!
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