Indeed. And the ECM has taken a step back from the unsettled nature of next week and appears to be trending towards GFS. I must say as Gav has said the Azores high is looking very "ridgy" this year. Hopefully bodes well for summer.

Someone mentioned in the previous thread that Tenerife seemingly had some very hot weather back in March, and commented that they wondered if that could be a sign that the Azores High is fairly strong this year. We can but hope!

Surely virtue signalling isn't directly affected by the heat? 

On the subject of the models, it does look a bit messy in the short to medium term, albeit never cool

A complex situation, but as I said yesterday the S and SE are likely to see the heat and humidity maintained into Sunday with heavy showers likely Sunday PM into Monday. Nothing has changed in the outlook, but uncertainty persists Sunday/Monday.  

It is set to be mainly dry for most, with some normal sunny and very warm or just warm conditions.  

Very slack and uninteresting Pressure and weather pattern and not much in the way of heavy showers at all, very mundane and although some very warm days and nights especially next few days, and further very warm dry sunny weather is being shown for after Wednesday next week ahem.😆☀️😎.

I have read a few pages on here today Thursday 25th.  I have to say keep up the morale and interest especially stormchaser.

Modelled 24 for us too Rob; managed 26. Weekend- including BHM- looking promising, after rain tonight.

A pretty amazing degree of difference between the 06z and 12z GFS runs with respect to the behaviour of the Atlantic and Scandi-Asian troughs in just 5 days time. 

So they will either be poised to interact and encourage disturbances to keep moving across the UK from time to time between the two, or they will stay distanced and allow us to enjoy fine weather under the separating ridge.

Nice and clear isn't it? 

Maybe it's just me James, but I rather get the impression that the models have been all over the place at times this month, and I don't just mean their far FI solutions. Even the normally trusted ECM op runs in the ten day range have been varying notably from one run to the next at times of late.

Prospects from mid-next week onwards are subject to much conjecture at the moment; I think a lot will depend upon the behaviour of the low in the atlantic.

I'm fairly sure it's not just you David; I have also noticed the unusually wide variation of output, and I can see reasons why:

1. There's a 5-wave pattern in the atmosphere (5 major ridges and troughs) which is 1-2 more than usual and means the atmosphere is pretty much at maximum complexity.


2. The region inside the Arctic circle has a distribution of temperatures that hasn't been seen since the extent made the sudden large decline in 2007 from which it has never sustainable recovered, with anomalously cold conditions north of Scandinavia but warmer than normal conditions on the Pacific side. I can see this driving blocking patterns in a different way to recent years, and one rarely observed before, if ever.


3. A strong pulse of the MJO is set to occur in the eastern Indian Ocean (see left-hand chart below) at a time when the atmospheric response is undergoing seasonal changes; the composite for May is much more unsettled for the UK than that for June, and it's possible that GFS in particular has been heading toward one, then the other, and back again, due to uncertainty regarding how quickly the seasonal changes progress.

I can sure see a lot of the June response in the GFS 12z run, while by contrast the ECM 12z is more akin to a May response, though the signal for there to be such a flat westerly flow by days 8-10 seems to come from somewhere else (and could even just be the model acting up).

Subtle changes in the short term output this morning. The Bank Holiday weekend looks more promising for southern areas.

Everything is chopping and changing so much wrt the Bank Holiday weekend, it makes things very difficult for anyone hosting or planning to attend an outdoor event.

Despite the chaotic nature of the model runs lately, it is possible to pick out an overall tendency to increase the frequency and extent of ridges over NW. Europe. I read an interesting contribution from Tamara on the other site last week which suggested that the models are erroneously trying to take the atmosphere toward an El Nino-type pattern, which causes them to give the jet stream too much shove and therefore underestimate the staying power of Euro ridges and their ability to extend north to the UK.

When the MJO plots finally updated yesterday, I think it was telling that a progression across the Pacific (phases 5-6-7) had been dropped in favour of a re-cycle to the Indian Ocean. Now while it's true that the responses do alter between the seasons a bit, it was IO activity that kept inflating Euro ridges and undoing the modelled cold spells last winter so it may well be that the models are displaying the same incorrect tendencies that they did back then.

If so, that bodes well for warm weather in the near-future at least - perhaps often dry too if the ridges can gain as much influence compared to original projections as was the case with the week just gone.

Of course, there will probably be some mighty heat plumes about at times given some good pre-conditioning across NW Africa and Spain over the past month, which bring the threat of instability but of course some will be very pleased to hear of such prospects 

This is all just potential, but at least it's positive potential 

What happened to last night's predicted storms? Not a single "bang" here - and very little rain either.

they happened in sussex and kent thats for sure amazing display

Updated comment on the wishful forecast for wishing and predicting no thundery showers on Saturday and Sunday, Saturday brought a very heavy shower that lasted 3 and half hours Sunday was dry, but by 0100 Monday of Sunday Night I got part of the big Thunderstorms shower that gave a spell of heavy rain and some CG's tststm's with loud bangs and thunder rumbles. I recorded one in the middle of the MCS storm.

Large parts of SE England were on the receiving end of it last night. It cleared by about 2:55 a.m.

😀.

This being the 11th post today, with no imminent heatwave: I would say that's good for end of May. There's no dam on posts in here- keep it coming Two-ers. An interesting point is the muddle over our lats & longs with successive noses of highs being projected, and lows squidging in from the ocean. Makes for uncertain, & interesting, times.