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Karl Guille
30 January 2018 22:20:46

Certainly something to cling on to with the 18z Op. I wonder if come T156 the 850hPA air coming in from the west will really be at -10. I am as fatigued as many but I just can't let this go!!


St. Sampson
Guernsey
Whether Idle
30 January 2018 22:31:31


Certainly something to cling on to with the 18z Op. I wonder if come T156 the 850hPA air coming in from the west will really be at -10. I am as fatigued as many but I just can't let this go!!


 


Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 


Or you can go for -9 850 HpA air from the east:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmae_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&archive=0


Fascinating seeing how this plays out.


or this at day 7-8:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=180&mode=0&carte=0&run=10


More runs needed. Thursday is still the day when we will have more of a clue about next week.


....or this -getting fingered by -10 air:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/850-hpa/168h.htm


 


 


 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
tallyho_83
30 January 2018 23:11:45

Yet Again - Friday 9th into Sat 10th Feb shows a snowfest nationwide:


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No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


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Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Karl Guille
30 January 2018 23:14:07
Some interesting runs on the 18z GEFS tonight! East or west it matters not!!
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018013018/gens-19-0-168.png 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Chiltern Blizzard
30 January 2018 23:22:27

Some interesting runs on the 18z GEFS tonight! East or west it matters not!!
Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 

">http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018013018/gens-19-0-168.png


 


Crazy to see -8c air from both east and west almost meeting!

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
nsrobins
30 January 2018 23:33:21

Some interesting runs on the 18z GEFS tonight! East or west it matters not!!
Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 

">http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018013018/gens-19-0-168.png


The problem is it does matter - especially for lowland areas. The 850 values only tell part of the story. A NW source will be much more modified from mixing out of the boundary layers and it’s this maritime influence that can turn a snow event into a sleet fest unless you benefit from altitude. Now a good clean continental flow - well you have no problems unless maybe you’re right on the coast.


Of course you can’t rule anything out, but you’d have to be a very optimistic southerner to get excited about the demise of the winter easterly. Some are talking about corrections, but we’d need to see an historic correction to get the easterly back on the menu next week.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Rob K
30 January 2018 23:51:55


Yet Again - Friday 9th into Sat 10th Feb shows a snowfest nationwide:


No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


 No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


 


 


That last chart might raise Karl's interest?

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
tallyho_83
31 January 2018 00:07:19

Quite a few Ensembles show quite a wintry Sat 10th Feb and a real dip in the jet: - But our problem as seen in every single ensemble chart is the Azores HP which ruins our chances!










 


LMAO @ the 925mb approaching the 1050mb Greenland HP! Yeah right!: 






 


Battle?




 


Plenty of colder/chillier options but noting severe cold or prolonged! - just shame that any snow will be transient and temporary and more exclusive to northern Hills.

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Karl Guille
31 January 2018 06:16:00
The 0z ensembles are much better than some might think. I do wonder if we are sleep walking into a half decent cool to cold spell for much of the UK?
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018013100/graphe3_1000_310.8399963378906_135.8199920654297___.gif 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Retron
31 January 2018 06:24:21

The 0z ensembles are much better than some might think. I do wonder if we are sleep walking into a half decent cool to cold spell for much of the UK?

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 


Well, they certainly do look like showing a cold spell of sorts, but the devil's in the detail - source of the airmass is critically important and those aren't shown on those ensemble charts (you'd have to view the postage stamps). Still, it's nice to see some show genuinely deep cold persisting for a couple of days at least, albeit as ever they're in the small minority.


The wxmaps summary of GFS 7-day temperatures is noteworthy as it's the coldest it's been UK-wide all winter - lots of 0-2 below and some splodges of 2-4 below. In previous colder interludes, the far south has been persistently average or above average... it's had a couple of runs where it was shown as 0-2 below, but not 2-4 below.


http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.png


Also of interest are the fax charts from last night. Yes, the little low over the North Sea could potentially bring something of a wintry flavour if the fronts get far enough west, but the other thing is the pool of sub 474-dam air near to Hudson Bay. It's exceptionally rare to see such a deep cold pool on those fax charts!


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif


 

Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
31 January 2018 06:28:08

Two's version 147 snow rows best of winter also about  12 get to -10c .


 


 



 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Whether Idle
31 January 2018 06:32:06

Hey Gusty.  Is winter over now?


www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0



Caveat:


Don't be surprised to see either up grades or down grades from here though.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Ally Pally Snowman
31 January 2018 06:37:08

Excellent and cold ukmo run looking very battlegroundy 


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gary L
31 January 2018 06:45:12

Quite close to a snow event Friday night/Saturday morning, particularly midlands Northwards. One to watch!

Retron
31 January 2018 06:48:06

Worth mentioning that the ECM run can be seen in exquisite detail here:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018013100/great-britain/temperature-850hpa/20180206-0000z.html



Watching that mild sector being squeezed out is a sight to behold. (Also, there's some snow around 😛 )


EDIT: And two days of -10C 850s from the east down here. If only, eh?

Leysdown, north Kent
Gooner
31 January 2018 06:54:18

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2018013100/ECH0-168.GIF?31-12


Cold from ECM

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


doctormog
31 January 2018 06:58:19
There seems to be a lot of cooler than average and at times showery weather in the outlook currently. However, barring the occasional risk of wintriness, nothing much raises an eyebrow. Chilly yes but unless things are a bit colder or more prolonged nothing overly exciting for most wintry weather fans.

Yet again not a prevailing mild long fetch SWly outlook, but the lack of that doesn’t seem to equate to a blast of winter.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
JACKO4EVER
31 January 2018 07:09:16
As I posted yesterday, not much of interest in the reliable. Some tasty FI charts as we have become accustomed to, a virtual reality of days of old when winters were real and computer models weren’t even heard of.
Chiltern Blizzard
31 January 2018 07:09:23


Worth mentioning that the ECM run can be seen in exquisite detail here:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018013100/great-britain/temperature-850hpa/20180206-0000z.html



Watching that mild sector being squeezed out is a sight to behold. (Also, there's some snow around 😛 )


EDIT: And two days of -10C 850s from the east down here. If only, eh?


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Almost split tea out of mouth this morning looking at charts... a remarkable upgrade from both GFS and ECM!  


Noted that Norwich gets special treatment with its very own tiny puddle of -13c air bang on top of it!

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Gooner
31 January 2018 07:09:59

There seems to be a lot of cooler than average and at times showery weather in the outlook currently. However, barring the occasional risk of wintriness, nothing much raises an eyebrow. Chilly yes but unless things are a bit colder or more prolonged nothing overly exciting for most wintry weather fans.

Yet again not a prevailing mild long fetch SWly outlook, but the lack of that doesn’t seem to equate to a blast of winter.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Have you looked at ECM?

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


doctormog
31 January 2018 07:13:05


 


Have you looked at ECM?


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Yes. It seems like transient cold and mostly dry?

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Chiltern Blizzard
31 January 2018 07:18:25


 


Yes. It seems like transient cold and mostly dry?


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


ECM is great for the SE, especially East Anglia... so good for MBY, but can see why those elsewhere are underwhelmed. Also, the Synoptics are very precarious, so a tiny change could easily make a big change.  Too early for any excitement but nonetheless going in the right direction if you’re after something wintry.

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
soperman
31 January 2018 07:24:27

Upgrades with cross model support - hard not to get a bit excited except for the usual suspects hunting for the milder options

John p
31 January 2018 07:31:57


 


Yes. It seems like transient cold and mostly dry?


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


The 850 temps are unusually low for such innocuous looking synoptics though.

Camberley, Surrey
Shropshire
31 January 2018 07:35:17


 


ECM is great for the SE, especially East Anglia... so good for MBY, but can see why those elsewhere are underwhelmed. Also, the Synoptics are very precarious, so a tiny change could easily make a big change.  Too early for any excitement but nonetheless going in the right direction if you’re after something wintry.


Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 


Are they ? It's blink and you'll miss it even for the SE. A foot in the door easterly before our modern era nemesis of the northern arm of the jet /Azores High takes over.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.

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