theweatheroutlook

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ballamar
31 January 2018 07:42:50


 


Are they ? It's blink and you'll miss it even for the SE. A foot in the door easterly before our modern era nemesis of the northern arm of the jet /Azores High takes over.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


 


Not all about showing gale force easterly winds look closer and there are some cold synoptics where surprise snowfalls could happen. Plus you always say you take notice of met office outlook !

Karl Guille
31 January 2018 07:44:12
I don't know about sleep walking, I think I'm still dreaming!!
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2018013100/ECM0-168.GIF?31-12 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Shropshire
31 January 2018 07:45:24


 


 


Not all about showing gale force easterly winds look closer and there are some cold synoptics where surprise snowfalls could happen. Plus you always say you take notice of met office outlook !


Originally Posted by: ballamar 


 


I don't see that at all from any of the NWP on show.

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Sevendust
31 January 2018 07:46:28

There seems to be a lot of cooler than average and at times showery weather in the outlook currently. However, barring the occasional risk of wintriness, nothing much raises an eyebrow. Chilly yes but unless things are a bit colder or more prolonged nothing overly exciting for most wintry weather fans.

Yet again not a prevailing mild long fetch SWly outlook, but the lack of that doesn’t seem to equate to a blast of winter.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Agreed

doctormog
31 January 2018 07:47:58


 


The 850 temps are unusually low for such innocuous looking synoptics though.


Originally Posted by: John p 


You’re right that they are colder than they may seem at a glance or than we often see in these type of setups. My concern would be that it just means a slightly harsher frost between transient wintry mixes. There is definitely potential in the outlook but it is yet to be fulfilled and for many it may remain that way, again. A few tweaks here and there and it would be good but without that probably not.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
John p
31 January 2018 07:48:25


 


 


I don't see that at all from any of the NWP on show.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


You don't see any cold weather on the charts?


Wow.

Camberley, Surrey
soperman
31 January 2018 07:48:40


 


 


I don't see that at all from any of the NWP on show.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


 


Except for the snow rows on the ENS and the GFS precip graphics and the .........

Ally Pally Snowman
31 January 2018 07:53:01

I can't believe the mildies are trying to spin this morning's output. It's the coldest of the winter across the board.  -12c 850s into England day 6 and 7 , stayjng cold out to day 10. Snow cold easily turn up and short notice if it gets that cold.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
31 January 2018 07:59:41


 


 


I don't see that at all from any of the NWP on show.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


 


either take off the blindfold or you are struggling to read some of the output!

Shropshire
31 January 2018 07:59:42

I'm not spinning the output , yes it will be cold away from the West , but the jet is coming over the top so by the time there will be PPN around, it will be rain.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Rob K
31 January 2018 08:08:56


 


 


I don't see that at all from any of the NWP on show.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


You don't see any chances of snowfall from the current NWP output? I find that rather hard to fathom. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
31 January 2018 08:10:19

Saturday is well worth watching. I'd not be surprised to see quite a widespread risk of snow. (For the sake of balance I'd not be surprised to see a mostly rain event either)

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Rob K
31 January 2018 08:13:23


Two's version 147 snow rows best of winter also about  12 get to -10c .


 


 



 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


First time I've seen the mean hit -10C this winter! And "only" 6 days out. 


 


Ian: if this output is a "pig" then I say, pucker up, porker!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
picturesareme
31 January 2018 08:23:53


 


First time I've seen the mean hit -10C this winter! And "only" 6 days out. 


 


Ian: if this output is a "pig" then I say, pucker up, porker!


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Sorry but where exactly has the mean hit -10C? Not on that chart you quoted that's for sure.


 

nsrobins
31 January 2018 08:24:35


 


First time I've seen the mean hit -10C this winter! And "only" 6 days out. 


 


Ian: if this output is a "pig" then I say, pucker up, porker!


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


You mean Control don’t you Rob? The mean reaches about -7 minimum.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Rob K
31 January 2018 08:26:35


 


Sorry but where exactly has the mean hit -10C? Not on that chart you quoted that's for sure.


 


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Sorry -8C of course, got my colours mixed up! Still the lowest it has been all winter down here, other than at T0 in the brief cold snaps. 


 


And the mean stays well below average for virtually the entire two week period. I'm not quite sure what output it would take to please Ian but that is one of the coldest sets of ensembles realistically likely with 20+ members. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
polarwind
31 January 2018 08:31:23


I'm not spinning the output , yes it will be cold away from the West , but the jet is coming over the top so by the time there will be PPN around, it will be rain.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Historically, more than a few heavy snowfalls have occurred in such synoptics - and without turning to rain in the SE part of the UK.

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Dave,Derby
ballamar
31 January 2018 08:39:06


I'm not spinning the output , yes it will be cold away from the West , but the jet is coming over the top so by the time there will be PPN around, it will be rain.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


 


aha thanks for clarifying your view and you could be right but it is very marginal so could go one way or other!! Nice to see potential 

Gooner
31 January 2018 08:44:54


I can't believe the mildies are trying to spin this morning's output. It's the coldest of the winter across the board.  -12c 850s into England day 6 and 7 , stayjng cold out to day 10. Snow cold easily turn up and short notice if it gets that cold.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I totally agree , maybe people are fed up with the chase .

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Solar Cycles
31 January 2018 08:47:15


 


 


I don't see that at all from any of the NWP on show.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Im struggling in seeing anything other than some marginal wintriness at best, some could strike gold but he majority will just see cold rain. All in all a rather cold but nothing out of the ordinary 7-10 days ahead.

Rob K
31 January 2018 09:01:05


Im struggling in seeing anything other than some marginal wintriness at best, some could strike gold but he majority will just see cold rain. All in all a rather cold but nothing out of the ordinary 7-10 days ahead.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


With the snow row even in London approaching 150 that's just mild hopecasting. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
nsrobins
31 January 2018 09:02:07
There’s some blue moon related hysteria in here this morning!

https://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim 

De Bilts dropped significantly, with almost ice days on the Dutch coast and an impressive bunching of the dp plots down to -10. The cold source is there - can the UK steal some of it?
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Brian Gaze
31 January 2018 09:19:25


 


Thanks Brian. That is a very useful addition to your charts.


I have just calculated the latest anomalies for the CET thread and I came up with an anomaly of -0.3C for the next 10 days. That is using data from the Meteogroup app which I understand is derived from the ECM model.


I tried using the site below to estimate the anomaly using GFS data - using Luton AP as a proxy for Rothamsted, Leeds/Bradford as the best available proxy for Stonyhurst and Brize Norton as a proxy for Pershore.


http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample_C.shtml?text=EGVN/


A bit of a rough and ready calculation but this gave me an anomaly of -0.8C. So a bit higher than ECM but still somewhat less than the -2C anomaly shown on your 10 day chart for central England.


This chart shows the anomaly for the next 8 days as in the 0C to -2C range for central England. 


http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html


My calculations have the anomaly for days 1-8 as -1.2C (as opposed to the -0.8C for days 1-10). 


So your anomaly figures seem about right - possibly a little too much on the negative side. But certainly no more than a 1C variance which is easily accounted for by the rather rough and ready nature of my quick calculations.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


 Thanks. One of the problems is the NCEP 1981 - 2010 dataset is 2.5 deg resolution. The CRU monthly climatology data set (used by wxmaps and which I have too) is higher resolution but it only contains readings for land areas.    


 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
31 January 2018 09:20:15
Surely land areas are all you need? Who cares if it's mild at sea?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
31 January 2018 09:31:10

Surely land areas are all you need? Who cares if it's mild at sea?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Not sure I agree. Seeing the temperature anomaly across the entire region is useful IMO.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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