When was the Tom Presutti ice age meant to begin?

Tip for head teachers etc; in the 1980s when there was a heavy snowfall and the boys were arriving piecemeal due to transport problems, I organised a snowman competition to keep their minds off snowballing. The competition was won hands down by the L6 Art A level group who produced a very tasteful female nude draped round the sundial in the quad. I didn't like to ask how they managed to make it so lifelike 

GP morning update

Colder air starts to move into the country from the east on Sunday. There could be a few light snow showers on the east coast but otherwise it's a dry, sunny but increasingly cold weekend!

By Monday the Scandinavian High - The Beast From The East - Will be sending bitterly cold easterly winds our way. With the air having it's origins in Siberia obviously it will be very cold with severe windchill and heavy snow developing through the week.

Monday will be a mainly dry and sunny day in the west. Eastern regions will have snow showers and these snow showers will start to push inland on Monday afternoon. We could see accumulations of snow in some eastern regions by the end of Monday afternoon.

A more prolonged period of snow could push in from the east on Monday night and through Tuesday. The temperatures then become even colder with most places seeing temperatures staying around 0c all day and a severe windchill is likely.

The Big Freeze intensifies further on Wednesday with an "ice day" likely for most of us. Central and eastern areas will have more heavy snow showers which could merge into longer spells of snow in places. Significant disruption to road and transport systems seems very probable by the middle of the week.

The later stages of next week is very uncertain. The weather looks set to stay very cold but low pressure edging up from the south might bring England and Wales prolonged periods of heavy snow and blizzards. Severe disruptive weather would be probably although eventually somewhat less cold air could arrive in the south.

Brian makes the connection; others too. 

GFS rolling out and the High seems a bit stronger on this run so far compared to the 0z.

Edit: Seems to bring in the cold a few hours earlier on Sunday.

Well that covers all eventualities.

ICON looks like repeating the last run trend of cutting off the easterly flow as a trough bisects the high to the north. Not sure I like that development. We end up with a very short window of true easterlies before it goes northeasterly and the high wanders off to Greenland. Still very cold but it will be a shame if we end up with such a watered down version of the beast. 

Hopefully GFS doesn't go that route. 

The BBC automated forecasts are driven by the EPS (they formally used MetO/MOGREPS)

The temps have consistently looked too high and I would ignore. 

Also automated forecasts are crap at picking up convective precipitation, always have been. They will improve once you get into the range of 48 hours ahead. 

The best of a bad bunch is the MetO app.

You worry way too much 

Good question.

Edit: I think it was about now, or 2020 maybe?

I was in 4th year of high school in early 1995 aged 15, and left school in summer 1997.

ICON has for two or three runs shown the true easterly lasting no more than about 36 hours and then switching to a more northerly feed. Fortunately it seem so to be out on its own in that respect. 

By T120 it is very different from any of the others and in comparison to other output a bit of a shocker. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php

Stunning set of run again this morning.

After a cold and frosty night.

THe GFS 6Z to 126 hour is fine/ the same/ stunning etc, no need to worry.


https://images.meteociel.fr/im/4632/gfs-0-126_vid0.png

As for Icon, the chances of it being right at 120hours are very low. Check all other output. There is a trend to pull the high north.

EC op was a cold outlier and most members pushing the Biscay low up to end the cold spell in the south

Could be a brief affair for the south

Could be wrong but it looks to me as if the 06Z is going the way of the 00Z in terms of bringing in milder air from the south.

Our LP coming in from the SW Approaches looks to be modelled to run a tad further south and has a different angle of attack on the 06z to my eye making a marginal situation in the South later next week less likely.

00z

06z