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LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
28 July 2018 10:20:28

By 216-240 hours focused on Sunday PM 5th August to Wednesday 5th to 8th August 2018, The Azores High and Spanish West Europe Plume and severe Heatwave looks set given the broad agreement between GFS, ECMWF and the ICON Models.


Very Hot And Sunny and super dry weather is being shown by the GFS and ICON while ECMWF does also agree but it is different and shows West NW France Iberian, N NE Spain Low Pressure with Thunderstorms being possible.


Continental Heatwave is being forecasted, be prepared for said period. The Jetstream at said period goes to Sweden and Norway and far NW Atlantic into SW and West Greenland from SE Canada and NE USA et all.


Hmm.😆🔥😎🌤⚡️⛈☀️😀.

Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
28 July 2018 10:23:14


Latest GEFS once again have annoyingly persistent levels of PPN activity for Liverpool. Like previously, Plymouth & Brighton have the least (barely any) Birmingham & London a bit more, then Liverpool.


I'm not bothered about extreme temps, but an entirely dry and sunny August would crown what's mostly been a superb summer (going back to the beginning of May) 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


I agree with that Sir.


Very true and honest. That is looking quite possible given current models- they appear to agree with each other!.

Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
PFCSCOTTY
28 July 2018 15:51:02
Rain in south west approaches looks sooner and heavier than modelled?

Maybe tomorrow’s rain may be through sooner?
The Beast from the East
28 July 2018 16:26:15

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=174&mode=0


GFS and UKMO hotting up again. 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
28 July 2018 16:37:02
12z GFS looks just about tolerable heat wise for France, and rather nice for the U.K. with a return to slight Easterly flow and hot dry weather over the North and West.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Arcus
28 July 2018 17:01:55


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=174&mode=0


GFS and UKMO hotting up again. 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Whereas GEM goes the Full Hammond 


Mind, given it was showing a super-heated plume on the 00z we'll take it with a pinch of salt.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
superteacher
28 July 2018 17:07:50
GEM doing its wild swing trick again!
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
28 July 2018 17:37:46
GEM looks fairly nice to me.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
28 July 2018 17:45:21

GEM doing its wild swing trick again!

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

It’s the weekend!  Less data?

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Rob K
28 July 2018 19:20:46
I gather I missed a scorcher on the ECM 0Z run. Still looks pretty decent on 12Z but more unsettled at the end.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Heavy Weather 2013
28 July 2018 19:24:20

I gather I missed a scorcher on the ECM 0Z run. Still looks pretty decent on 12Z but more unsettled at the end.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


It was great. On the whole the 12z continue to trend back to hotter weather. Though it’s been nice to have a fresh day today - it felt wonderful.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
28 July 2018 19:58:54

A North - South Split in the UK Weather is expected to be a featured part of next week’s Weather on Thursday and Friday.


It means South is much warmer while the North sees cooler conditions- the following Saturday and Sunday are expected to bring hot and sunny summer weather for many but cooler in the North.  There is a chance of heavy thunderstorms by Sunday evening and Sunday night, then the following week after next week we shall sit under the Azores High- which also brings us very warm SW winds then calmer this coming Wednesday.  The Thursday and Friday Low Pressure should go over the top of this Azores NW Europe UK High.


Strong Westerly winds in Week after next week Weekend over the Northwest Atlantic with large Western N Atlantic Bermuda High with it’s very warm and hot dry air originating from the Gulf of Mexico and Florida et all.


👍😏☀️☀️😄😉.⚡️⛈😎.

Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Global Warming
28 July 2018 20:33:23


 


Whereas GEM goes the Full Hammond 


Mind, given it was showing a super-heated plume on the 00z we'll take it with a pinch of salt.


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


The 12z GEM operational run was one of the cooler members of the ENS. Overall the ENS look warm with some very hot runs - warmer in fact than the GFS ENS.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gem&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=

Rob K
28 July 2018 21:35:19
GEFS run 8 is crazy, hottest August on record there 😉
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
29 July 2018 07:24:48
Rather disappointing runs all round this morning. GFS warm for the south but not so good further north. ECM a lot cooler and less settled than previous runs.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Sevendust
29 July 2018 07:31:49
Still looks a bit like August 1983 coming up! Dry and warm down here
Jiries
29 July 2018 07:47:35

Still looks a bit like August 1983 coming up! Dry and warm down here

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png


Excellent as it will be warm to near hot and dry all the way.  Good for my moving day and unpacking stuff as I would need to use outside a lot to put stuff for time being.

Jiries
29 July 2018 07:50:19

GEFS run 8 is crazy, hottest August on record there ;)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


It will come up eventually on the ensembles but now it looking great after today rain and probably last one for a long while.  With so much heat over the south from SW to SE UK it have to go somewhere and will eventually hit UK, also being so big any correction east or west position will still bring the massive heatwave over us.

Ally Pally Snowman
29 July 2018 08:20:24

ECM means look pretty solid out to day 10  warm/hot and settled in the south. Maybe just a hint of a slow gradual decline right at the end but to early to judge.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
sizzle
29 July 2018 10:00:13

A beautiful COOL WET day today. models trending very warm for end of the week will it reach its 30s again. ?  GP mentioned that mid month 15th the jet stream will re-altar its self and things could slowly become cooler ...some say summer will go on and on  until October. not mentioning no names [ SIMON KEELING ]   WE SHALL SEE. we are heading into the final summer month of august..

Hungry Tiger
29 July 2018 11:14:23


A beautiful COOL WET day today. models trending very warm for end of the week will it reach its 30s again. ?  GP mentioned that mid month 15th the jet stream will re-altar its self and things could slowly become cooler ...some say summer will go on and on  until October. not mentioning no names [ SIMON KEELING ]   WE SHALL SEE. we are heading into the final summer month of august..


Originally Posted by: sizzle 


If it goes into September, October - that will be like 1959 and 1911.


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Sevendust
29 July 2018 11:16:36


 


If it goes into September, October - that will be like 1959 and 1911.


 


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


The blocked patterns that emerged in late winter brought us the severe cold in March so I would think a continuation of this pattern would eventually lead to some pretty cold weather by late autumn 

Gavin D
29 July 2018 11:17:16

It looks like this weekend's fresher spell is just a blip temps set to increase once more from midweek


ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.0e1a953f811ec1d3c3bb3809d9edded0.png1.thumb.png.560c3839f620721939fc2f02f2487b0e.png2.thumb.png.84b9986f165a6c74c92bb240a70790f6.png


3.thumb.png.7f7da635b61c52c4f5ccf055d6cf5a04.png4.thumb.png.aa69543cb82d65e9fd1f3de6ab2ea215.png5.thumb.png.c8ddd7a67498aa9b79d969e041c3c477.png

Gusty
29 July 2018 11:22:30


 


The blocked patterns that emerged in late winter brought us the severe cold in March so I would think a continuation of this pattern would eventually lead to some pretty cold weather by late autumn 


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


A shameless ramp Dave .


PS..2018/19 will be a biggy.


PS back to the models.....hot and sunny weather soon to return.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



The Beast from the East
29 July 2018 12:26:27

the pattern is broken and I don't think it will return in the same way. We already see the jet digging south and atlantic systems trying to cut through. These may serve to pump the heat up briefly but I think my mid August we will be in a cooler westerly regime


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

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