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GEM also good GFS not so much
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman
If we're able to get back up to temps of between 25c and 30c after this blip I don't think anyone can complain in the slightest. As much as I'd like to break records.
Originally Posted by: danm
I agree, although with 25-30 temps we could still break the summer record. I’d rather have more of the country under settled sunshine and very warm, than half frazzle while the other rust or sit under cloud!
Originally Posted by: Caz
Agree. What’s important now is generally warm temperatures (at least 18C August), sunshine, and above all lack of rain. We need to end the summer with hosepipe bans for this to be a proper one.
Sitting in the garden at my house at Le Pelerin, looking West, after a baking day, and suddenly we’re having strong gusts of wind. Hot wind at first then cooler. Downdrafts. Which means thunderstorms for me later.
Dry and warm for most into the foreseeable future. Can’t complain to be honest.http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.pnghttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euT2mMonInd1.gif
Originally Posted by: White Meadows
Perfect for me as 25-30C are comfortable for my time to do the moving house next Friday and need lot of dry weather too. With some rain some grass will turn green for a short while before turning parched again later on.
The jet is getting further and further south and cutting over so the chances of more unsettled and cooler weather increases. I said a few days ago that when the pattern breaks it often stays broken. It’s the same in winter after prolonged severe cold spell ends. It rarely returns in a meaningful way. I don’t predict a Hammond washout but it will be typical summer conditions and normal rainfall. We may never get back above 30 again
Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East
Nice try.
Having trawled through the models after reading this im left scratching my head and wondering if you actually viewed the models before posting this garbage ?? Its high pressure all the way once the weekend blip is out the way .
Summer is dead: long live summer! Back to the new normal from the middle of next week, though ECM is inclined to bring up LP from France later on.
About turn! Not quite but the latest GEFS shows an increased chance of heat returning. Not surprising to see the ensembles chopping and changing because very small adjustments to the positioning of the high pressure block will determine whether we tap into the furnace again. What's clear is there is no sign of an August washout at the moment.
Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze
Our successors will probably look back at this period of summer and chunter about how boring the UK's weather is now compared to the good old days of 2018. This weekend is a dramatic contrast to recent days and next week will really be the icing on the cake. Summer doesn't get better than this for a weather enthusiast in the UK. (I know that's a south east centric point of view and other parts of the country have been more mediocre in the last week or two).
Indeed good for you in the SE!! Its not been too bad up here, Certainly been warm and mostly dry. Last few weeks more clouds and not pleasant due to high humidity.
ECM 000z has the heat quickly returning. It then cools off in the north but in the south it's the furnace again.
GEM draws up that scorching airmass over the UK at 240hrs
ECM at 240hrs has the +22C 850hpa isotherm into Sussex
Also missed out on most of the thundery action yesterday here too. I think the nearby Chilterm Hills often create a rain shadow effect here.
Great post Brian.
Latest GEFS once again have annoyingly persistent levels of PPN activity for Liverpool; nothing major, but naggingly consistent through the run. Like previously, Plymouth & Brighton have the least (barely any) Birmingham & London a bit more, then Liverpool.
I'm not bothered about extreme temps, but an entirely dry and sunny August would crown what's mostly been a superb summer (going back to the beginning of May)
