At the moment we’re looking at the S word but reserved only for northern hills. 

What needs to be remembered IMO is that at this moment in time, we are still just under three weeks away from the start of the meteorogical winter. While the models may look predominantly mild/very mild at the moment until the later stages of GFS FI, a lot can and quite likely will change in the model output over the coming three weeks or so.

It's worth remembering that we haven't really had a notably cold opening to any winter since that great December of 2010. Although it was a little chilly up here at the beginning of last December, it wasn't anything particularly severe and we didn't get our first snow here until Xmas night IIRC.

What was pretty evident in 2010 was that the MetO first spotted the signals for a notable severe spell some time before the first indications of it appeared in the output that we have access to. From what I recall, the models that we can see didn't really suggest anything particularly cold during the first ten days or so of that month; it was only when we got to around mid-November 2010 that the models began to show heights over the Greenland/Iceland region rising noticeably, pretty much the same thing that happened the previous winter which led to the Dec 2009/Jan 2010 freeze I think.

Again a couple of mouth watering scenarios showing in the ENS (6z), main feature = dry for sometime , chilly with fog and frost a possibility 

6z GEFS mean at 240 hours. There are several members now showing wintry potential from the east. 

A few very cold runs appearing now.

It's always interesting to see members playing with the -10C isotherm - heck, some winters have hardly had any members going that low all season!

Meanwhile, here's the ECM mean for 240. Cool and settled looks increasingly likely as we go into the latter third of the month, IMO.

That was my thought too. 

I can finish renovating this pool, dry weather at last, perhaps beyond  http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204 As long as it not too low temps in the day for cementing, and there is no model change

Remarkably dry as well. That being said, the last 24hrs have seen a absolute soaking in this part of the world.

Looks not a million miles from the commencement of the cold spells in late November 2010 and mid-December 2009 to me.

12z ENS will look decent again , some eye candy amongst them …………..FI of course 

Indeed might be an eventful end to Autumn beginning to winter 

An interesting chart. I've kept a copy, I'll see if I can remember to check back on the 27th...

haha all starts in FI as you say whether it will be there in even 4 hours is another thing but at least it’s got a bit of interest 

Dec 2009 had the core of the HP over Iceland for a while irrc.

Not sure what to make of the models atm, other than it looks settled for a fair while. Whether the HP is static enough to allow some low level cold to form or indeed clear enough for some sun and frost is a bit of an imponderable.

GFS seems keen to reload the HP to a more favourable position, with the 12z OP in deep la la land showing how to get a decent early winter cold spell courtesy of it dropping a big chunk of the PV in to Scandi, with HP over Iceland nicely positioned to help the cold flood over most of Scotland and England I'd have thought.

The initial mild/warm HP phase seems pretty nailed on now, just have to wait and see how long it hangs around and whether it ends up somewhere that's conducive to getting some properly cold air over us.

It'll be interesting to see the Ens later - the 6z set had a split developing with a clear cold and milder cluster, suggesting continued HP dominance looks favoured but positioning as you'd expect far from certain.

All in all not a bad place to be in as we head towards the start of the silly season and the imminent dry mild stuff should be fairly pleasant to cycle in, which is a massive bonus for November

12z update looks quite similar. 

Well, looks like a Scandi HP is on the cards from every major model, starting next weekend.

Will it then retrogress towards Greenland?

Northern blocking is the form horse for the early winter in any case - looking good for some enduring frosts at least.

GloSea update has just been issued. The mild signal has now gone completely and it favours below average 850s in the south with a positive pressure anomaly to the north of the UK. Other seasonal models from national forecasting centres offer support so perhaps the Met Office will start talking up the prospects of a cold winter.  

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

As we are only on 11/11 you'd expect the eye candy to be in FI, its the trends we want 

Good update I'd say Brian but far too early for me to get excited 

Who are you kidding Marcus  ?