theweatheroutlook

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Whether Idle
15 January 2019 20:52:14

Just waiting for the ECM ensembles to update at weather.us. The 00Z run had the coldest members going for -16C at 850mb in London, delivering minima around -11C and maxima around -4c.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Ahh. The Bullesye post is called for...


Image result for lets see what you could have won

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gusty
15 January 2019 21:03:10

De Bilt is nearly in the freezer now 


http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim


 


 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



nsrobins
15 January 2019 21:09:06

Can’t remember if this was posted on here but after reading it I don’t have as much confidence in the GFS at the moment

Originally Posted by: Notty 

">https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/07/national-weather-service-is-open-your-forecast-is-worse-because-shutdown/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.f10fc4f55a31


It’s been discussed elsewhere and completely refuted. I agree with the concensus. 

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Hippydave
15 January 2019 21:11:07


 


Pete Tong I suspect.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 



Tis possible.


I did nearly have a punt the other day on an initial cool/chilly unsettled flow turning easterly as the jet petered out - wish I had now, given some of the MO, might have looked like I know what I'm talking about


I still reckon there's a decent chance of a cold spell in the mid to long term and still a reasonable chance of seeing some falling snow out of the initial cooler spell, although not much more than some snow mixed in at the back of the front down here given slight trend to less cold 850s and more variability (still looking good for some up North though!).


One thing I don't think likely is a mild, zonal spell but there's obviously quite a few ways the UK manages to dodge cold air so need the ducks to stay nicely lined up if we're to get lucky this time. I am a wee bit more optimistic than you at the moment though I think

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Arcus
15 January 2019 21:25:03


It’s been discussed elsewhere and completely refuted. I agree with the concensus. 


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


It remains a poor performing model in its current guise Neil - below its Canadian cousin now.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
pdiddy
15 January 2019 22:03:12

BBC wrestling with GFS v ECM too, it seems.  Uncertainty abounds.  All to do with "low pressure system across the USA" on Sunday.

Russwirral
15 January 2019 22:06:09
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/18_63_preciptype.png?cb=1501201918 

Many a cold spell have been ushered in with an under discussed / under acknowledged snow event. 2013 had many sliders that appeared in the charts but looked relatively weak until 24 hrs before.

One to keep a neye on. Especially the timing. Gfs has friday 9am. Icon has it as friday 5pm.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
doctormog
15 January 2019 22:12:58

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/18_63_preciptype.png?cb=1501201918

Many a cold spell have been ushered in with an under discussed / under acknowledged snow event. 2013 had many sliders that appeared in the charts but looked relatively weak until 24 hrs before.

One to keep a neye on. Especially the timing. Gfs has friday 9am. Icon has it as friday 5pm.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Or tomorrow night depending on location https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/18_30_preciptype.png?cb=779 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Rob K
15 January 2019 22:18:02
https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperatur850 

2m temps not quite as cold as the 0Z, but mean daytime maxima for London are between 2C and 3C for over a week.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
15 January 2019 22:19:22
And GFS 18Z seems to have a better profile across Greenland at 168.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gooner
15 January 2019 22:23:06

18z lining up ok so far 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Karl Guille
15 January 2019 22:24:07

Much more energy heading south on this run akin to the ECM.


St. Sampson
Guernsey
Ally Pally Snowman
15 January 2019 22:24:16

GFS looking ECM esque at day 7 looks like a snowy slider. Can we get an easterly as well?


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
15 January 2019 22:28:02

Reluctant to show an Easterly 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


White Meadows
15 January 2019 22:34:19


Reluctant to show an Easterly 



Originally Posted by: Gooner 

it could be an easterly in the making, just poorly modelled.

Ally Pally Snowman
15 January 2019 22:37:14

Not perfect at day 9 but a big shift to the ECM tonight from the GFS. Marginal uppers for snow though.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
15 January 2019 22:38:13

A bit messy


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Ally Pally Snowman
15 January 2019 22:50:29

Huge northern blocking again in far FI a good sign.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Solar Cycles
15 January 2019 23:00:47
The GFS has almost done a full turnaround and joined the Euros in its outlook, a pitiful performance from the American model over the last week. Now we need to see those heights push into Greenland allowing troughing to our East to back westwards. I still think we’ll see more twist and turns in the next day or two but it’s now looking like we’ve got a consensus on where we are heading.
Ally Pally Snowman
15 January 2019 23:11:52

JMA absolutely stunning run tonight proper  beasterly 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gandalf The White
15 January 2019 23:55:01

An impressive ECM 12z ensemble suite for London if you're looking for solid support for a very cold spell. A cluster heading towards less cold at the end, but still below normal.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Rob K
16 January 2019 00:40:48

GEFS has some impressive members, P1 is a corker. Still lots of scatter and a rather unimpressive mean though.


 


CMA is almost as good as the JMA tonight... and CFS has the -15C isotherm hitting the southeast as early as 954 hours 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Retron
16 January 2019 04:07:04
Hmm - last night's ECM extends the SSW by two days (to the 22nd), has one day of very weak normality (+0.24 m/s), one day of reversal (-0.3) then back to weak normality again (+0.2).

As I mentioend yesterday, I reckon if those winds were to recover quickly instead we'd see a much faster downwelling. As it stands, it just about makes it to 70hPa for one day.

https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html 
Leysdown, north Kent
moomin75
16 January 2019 05:41:54
An awful GFS 0z today and these ensembles look pretty terminal for a cold spell.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

No point polishing a turd. If ECM falls into line today, which I am sure it will do, this will bring an end to the hopes of prolonged cold spell.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Heavy Weather 2013
16 January 2019 05:58:52

An awful GFS 0z today and these ensembles look pretty terminal for a cold spell.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

No point polishing a turd. If ECM falls into line today, which I am sure it will do, this will bring an end to the hopes of prolonged cold spell.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Variation of theme. GFS is still playing catch up. High pressure still looks like building to the NE. The ECM is model to watch right now

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

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