Short term snow potential thread· Page 7

moomin75
Advanced Member

28 January 2019 20:03:11

Alex Deakin explains in better detail about tomorrows rain to snow in the south - and as it seems it looks as if the rain/snow event is moving through a lot quicker than previously thought as by Tuesday afternoon it's moved eastwards and passed all of Devon, Somerset and Dorset! Where as yesterday this band of rain and snow was still lingering over Devon and Somerset by Tuesday afternoon. Also it looks like a smaller but more intense area of rain to snow - maybe a' thundersnow' event. Whilst tomorrow is turning out to be a damb squib for many lowland southern areas - Tuesday night into Wednesday has been upgraded for snowfall in Devon with a number of snow showers heading in off Irish sea and well inland across Devon, Cornwall, Somerset and even Dorset if you see around Tuesday evening into Tuesday night which is different from what the BBC were showing and their poor graphics.

https://youtu.be/134Xiwm1IEc

I don't understand why they haven't included a temperature map with this!?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83

Wow. 1-3cm possible likely on the hills. Who would have thought that in January? Disruption? What a joke. With 1cm? Absolutely pathetic.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

marco 79
Advanced Member

28 January 2019 20:07:41

#152

Tbh with every hour that passes ...it's all starting to look decidedly underwhelming....like any marginal snow event across England away from height..it's looking pretty meh....

Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL

Arcus
Advanced Member

28 January 2019 20:11:30

#153

Wow. 1-3cm possible likely on the hills. Who would have thought that in January? Disruption? What a joke. With 1cm? Absolutely pathetic.

Originally Posted by: moomin75

Hence the warning is for snow and ice. Marginal rain/sleet/snow events with cold air undercutting overnight - ice becomes a real hazard, no matter if you've only got a few cms or less lying. Driving on snow is far easier than a layer of slush that's frozen.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member

28 January 2019 20:15:52

#154

Hence the warning is for snow and ice. Marginal rain/sleet/snow events with cold air undercutting overnight - ice becomes a real hazard, no matter if you've only got a few cms or less lying. Driving on snow is far easier than a layer of slush that's frozen.

Originally Posted by: Arcus

Indeed. Anyone who has encountered black ice, whether on two or four wheels or on foot, will know it's dangerous and potentially deadly.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E

Joe Bloggs
Advanced Member

28 January 2019 20:17:17

#155

Some hefty showers coming into the NW now. Metoffice suggesting snow here from 9pm now. 0-1c.

Originally Posted by: Gary L

I wonder! Currently 0C/-4C at Ringway.

It’ll need to warm up very quickly for it to rain. No snow was forecast tonight here.

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member

28 January 2019 20:18:38

#156

Tbh with every hour that passes ...it's all starting to look decidedly underwhelming....like any marginal snow event across England away from height..it's looking pretty meh....

Originally Posted by: marco 79

I would have thought your position 135 metres up would help. Certainly we're similar here and it's generally 1c colder than down the hill. In marginal situations that can be quite a difference.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

28 January 2019 20:18:56

#157

It is

Originally Posted by: SJV

So annoying how our pathetic wintry mix 1cm on High ground [censored]efest instantly becomes snowmegeddon as it hits the Continent.

Its very hard to be optimistic tonight even Thursday is starting to look meh. Long term signals look iffy at best.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

tallyho_83
Advanced Member

28 January 2019 20:39:30

#158

Wow. 1-3cm possible likely on the hills. Who would have thought that in January? Disruption? What a joke. With 1cm? Absolutely pathetic.

Originally Posted by: moomin75

Exactly ! haha! I only shared because the Met O Graphics are better than BBC!

YES I totally agree i really don't know why i am getting excited about cold rain turning to sleet as it peters tong out'!! Given Exeter experienced full 6" to 7" of fluffy powdery snow which fell in the space of 5 -6 hours thanks to Storm Emma on 1st March 2018 with daytime max temps of -3.0c!

https://youtu.be/CJEB0fWjTZw

Exeter Haven Banks (The Quay) - View From my bedroom window from around 2pm heavy snow started and got heavier!

2pm

3pm

4pm

5:30pm

Edited by user 28 January 2019 20:42:58 | Reason: Not specified

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com

tallyho_83
Advanced Member

28 January 2019 20:40:40

#159

It is

Originally Posted by: SJV

According to that east Exeter get's a dump and south side of Exeter (the Quay) get's nothing!!

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com

westv
Advanced Member

28 January 2019 20:41:51

#160

So looking good for southern parts then.

At least it will be mild!

nsrobins
Advanced Member

28 January 2019 20:47:02

#161

So looking good for southern parts then.

Originally Posted by: westv

It is - everything nice and green with daffs popping up in places 😉😎

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO

ballamar
Advanced Member

28 January 2019 20:47:21

#162

So looking good for southern parts then.

Originally Posted by: westv

could be a lot worse and the hit and miss of tomorrow’s snow is interesting not to mention Thursday but some people are blinkered by one or two extreme evwnts

Global Warming
Guest

28 January 2019 20:49:38

#163

Here is the latest from ECM for Hampshire tomorrow evening and Thursday.

Tomorrow evening looks very marginal

At 18z the heaviest of the precipitation is moving through

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/precipitation-1h/20190129-1800z.html

The snow line at this point is around 400 - 450ft at best (about 120 - 140m).

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/snow-line/20190129-1800z.html

Once the band of precipitation has passed we are left with snow depths of just under an inch in some parts. So maybe 2-3cm. Consistent with the Met O forecast.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/snow-depth-in/20190129-2000z.html

Thursday looks more promising as the precipitation will be heavier and longer lasting.

Here is the position at 4pm as the band of precipitation is starting to move away to the NE.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/precipitation-1h/20190131-1600z.html

You can see the strong temperature gradient behind the front as milder air starts to push in. Snow line moves quickly from 450ft to over 2000ft

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/snow-line/20190131-1600z.html

But it does leave potentially 3-4 inches of snow behind

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/snow-depth-in/20190131-1800z.html

ECM is modelling a very deep area of low pressure for Thursday - centre at 962mb just to the south of Ireland

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2019012812/ECU1-72.GIF?28-0

Saint Snow
Advanced Member

28 January 2019 20:55:43

#164

I wonder! Currently 0C/-4C at Ringway.

It’ll need to warm up very quickly for it to rain. No snow was forecast tonight here.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs

Rain here, less than 20 miles west (and temp is 2.4c)

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

Quantum
Advanced Member Topic Starter

28 January 2019 21:13:49

#165

Snow risk map people wanted. Valid for 24 hours starting midnight. Risk of falling snow that you don't need to squint to see. So large parts of England under that feature 'only', in my opinion have a 60% chance of seeing snow. There is a 40% chance it will be sleet or rain.

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

Russwirral
Advanced Member

28 January 2019 21:47:11

#166

Icon scrubs any chance of widespread snow for thursday/Friday.

Has me worried :(

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history

tallyho_83
Advanced Member

28 January 2019 21:50:22

#167

Snow risk map people wanted. Valid for 24 hours starting midnight. Risk of falling snow that you don't need to squint to see. So large parts of England under that feature 'only', in my opinion have a 60% chance of seeing snow. There is a 40% chance it will be sleet or rain.

Originally Posted by: Quantum

Did you create that? Looks a bit ragged? Gosh south of M4 we have no hope in hell!

Good news for N. Ireland and w scotland like last year! Those two areas do well in north westerly cold zonal air flows like what we will have and always the south does poorly in terms of snow and any cold!

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com

Joe Bloggs
Advanced Member

28 January 2019 21:51:20

#168

Rain here, less than 20 miles west (and temp is 2.4c)

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow

Sleety rain here too.

To be fair, no snow was ever expected tonight.

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Saint Snow
Advanced Member

28 January 2019 21:53:55

#169

Icon scrubs any chance of widespread snow for thursday/Friday.

Has me worried :(

Originally Posted by: Russwirral

It just gets better and better

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

jhall
Advanced Member

28 January 2019 21:56:33

#170

Did you create that? Looks a bit ragged? Gosh south of M4 we have no hope in hell!

Good news for N. Ireland and w scotland like last year! Those two areas do well in north westerly cold zonal air flows like what we will have and always the south does poorly in terms of snow and any cold!

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83

Not sure how you get "no hope in hell" from that chart. Even down in Exeter, in one of the less favoured localities, it shows that you have a better than 30% chance.

Cranleigh, Surrey

tallyho_83
Advanced Member

28 January 2019 22:01:26

#171

Not sure how you get "no hope in hell" from that chart. Even down in Exeter, in one of the less favoured localities, it shows that you have a better than 30% chance.

Originally Posted by: jhall

Just saw weather forecast by Matt Taylor of the BBC weather and tomorrow is looking like a damb squib for many southern areas!!

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com

Russwirral
Advanced Member

28 January 2019 22:02:23

#172

It just gets better and better

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow

Gfs looks less intense too

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history

Quantum
Advanced Member Topic Starter

28 January 2019 22:09:57

#173

Tommorow is very finally balanced wrg to Rain/Snow. The AROME 18Z is the one to watch.

That model is very much on the fence, which ever way it goes down I'd be inclined to beleive it.

Regarding Thursday. I'm not suprised the low continues to trend south, it always happens....

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.