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Arcus
24 November 2019 20:37:02


Some nice synoptics for a couple of days before the topple ( why 2010 is being banded about I have not a clue) although at t168 range can be liable to change. Phase two of cold snap is certainly wishful thinking at this stage. Snow showers a possibility further north with wintry showers perhaps further south. Still nowt set in stone colder or milder options for next weekend still on the table.


Originally Posted by: DPower 


Given how the progged synpotics have changed in the T+120 to T+144 period I really wouldn't hold any store in certainty beyond that. 

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Whether Idle
24 November 2019 21:04:23


 


Given how the progged synpotics have changed in the T+120 to T+144 period I really wouldn't hold any store in certainty beyond that. 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Quite right.  Just about anything is possible, even if we can use probability to suggest what is probable.  Anyhow, here's a link to the ECM ens.  This is for coastal SW Holland /Belgium:


https://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagse/?type=eps_pluim&r=zuidwest


 


 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Steve Murr
24 November 2019 21:17:23


Some nice synoptics for a couple of days before the topple ( why 2010 is being banded about I have not a clue) although at t168 range can be liable to change. Phase two of cold snap is certainly wishful thinking at this stage. Snow showers a possibility further north with wintry showers perhaps further south. Still nowt set in stone colder or milder options for next weekend still on the table.


Originally Posted by: DPower 


Because for 1 reason the vertical advection over the SW tip of Greenland @144 is almost identical but not quite as extreme as Nov 21 2010 -


Note the ICON 18z is even more amplified at 120 - literally vertical advection at 120.

Gandalf The White
25 November 2019 00:06:42

ECM 12z ensemble for London



The Op was into the colder end of the range of outcomes but always supported.  Note maxima of 3-4C by next weekend, markedly colder than was being shown only 2-3 runs ago.


The signal for a recovery in temperatures is there but delayed somewhat and still with a few perturbations sticking with a cold theme.  


The GFS 12z stands out as overdoing the incursion of mild weather - before cooler air moves back.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


tallyho_83
25 November 2019 00:49:54


ECM 12z ensemble for London



The Op was into the colder end of the range of outcomes but always supported.  Note maxima of 3-4C by next weekend, markedly colder than was being shown only 2-3 runs ago.


The signal for a recovery in temperatures is there but delayed somewhat and still with a few perturbations sticking with a cold theme.  


The GFS 12z stands out as overdoing the incursion of mild weather - before cooler air moves back.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 


Yes - see the delay!!


Also quite a big disagreement in models esp between the ECM and GFS op from 192 hrs :


ECM - Keeps the ridge to our NW and keeps us in a cold notherly flow at +192.



 


GFS - Collapses the ridge (It topples over UK) then moves south-eastwards quicker and brings in the SOUTH Westerlies as early as Monday!


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
25 November 2019 07:01:32

GFS: pushes Sebastian through, not much of a northerly following (what there is, is over the Baltic by sun 1st); HP for a couple of days around 2nd/3rd; followed by some zonal stuff; then a strong northerly on Sun 8th (if that doesn't get pushed eastward too); then more zonal stuff.


ECM much the same. Both have interesting deep LP over western Med 3rd Dec


GEFS ens have temps as much as 5C below average 30th - 3rd quite generally,, even the SW towards the end of this,  then back to seasonal average though with enough scatter for the cherry-pickers to find something. Dry -ish after the near future, though there is a peak inthe south around 1st Dec.


GEFS at odds with the 0z charts in respect of temps, but last night's BBC did have a lot of cold air coming south.


Jetstream strong and to the S of Britain in week 1, then looping, first into the Med (hence the LP there) then less strongly around the UK


 

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Gusty
25 November 2019 07:55:39

Good agreement this morning for a pleasant spell of cool, dry and sunny weather for 4 or 5 days with some harsh overnight frosts. There is the possibility of wintry showers near some eastern and northern coasts for a time before the maritime feed gets cut off. A gradual return to mildness from the NW by midweek as high pressure slips back south. 


Most will be pleased with this outcome. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Argyle77
25 November 2019 08:24:41
so a normal two day northerly toppler then a zonal outlook ,is the form horse then?

Nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year.

No prolonged cold spell seems on the cards despite weeks of southerly tracking lows.

Getting prolonged cold weather in the u.k. really is so difficult
t
nsrobins
25 November 2019 08:42:08

so a normal two day northerly toppler then a zonal outlook ,is the form horse then?

Nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year.

No prolonged cold spell seems on the cards despite weeks of southerly tracking lows.

Getting prolonged cold weather in the u.k. really is so difficult
t

Originally Posted by: Argyle77 


Southerly tracking lows is only one piece of the UK cold jigsaw scenarios. If the pattern is mobile (no block to the NE) then these lows move on through and the weather type that ensues could be described as ‘cool zonality’.


It is rare to get UK wide snowfall in these setups - we need a strong GH or SH and neither of those is indicated in the medium term.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Argyle77
25 November 2019 09:59:13
southerly tracking lows are caused by northern blocking forcing the jet stream Southwards in the first place ?

So we are getting Northern blocking but for some reason it’s not in the exact right place, or like after this weekend the Block to the North,is forecast to sink South over the u.k.,allowing the jet to ride over the top,and back to u.k. usual weather of zonal dross,probably lasting weeks.
Brian Gaze
25 November 2019 10:07:48
We could end up with a cold spell which lasts a week. That's not bad going in the UK and could easily be the longest cold period of the winter. Climatology tells us that. Therefore my advice is cold weather fans should get out and enjoy it! Looking at model runs in the hope of something that dots more i's and crosses more t's may not be productive.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Argyle77
25 November 2019 10:15:45
gfs a bit further west with the block at 150 hours,but still looks like like sinking.

You never know though,once it hits the reliable time frame,the sinking of the high could be further delayed.
tallyho_83
25 November 2019 10:18:43

We could end up with a cold spell which lasts a week. That's not bad going in the UK and could easily be the longest cold period of the winter. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


And it's not even winter? wow!! why do you feel this is so when winter is 3 months? 

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Argyle77
25 November 2019 10:20:31
the seasonal models are going for a mild winter that’s probably why it was mention about this upcoming cold spell being coldest for the next 3 months 😆
Tim A
25 November 2019 10:29:32

We could end up with a cold spell which lasts a week. That's not bad going in the UK and could easily be the longest cold period of the winter. Climatology tells us that. Therefore my advice is cold weather fans should get out and enjoy it! Looking at model runs in the hope of something that dots more i's and crosses more t's may not be productive.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


If it does last a week (which I doubt) then perhaps you are right.  But unlikely to be the most interesting spell of weather this winter, as there is unlikely to be any significant snowfall about.


 


 

Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
White Meadows
25 November 2019 10:30:29
Another winter is over? 😂
tallyho_83
25 November 2019 10:33:11

the seasonal models are going for a mild winter that’s probably why it was mention about this upcoming cold spell being coldest for the next 3 months 😆

Originally Posted by: Argyle77 


Yes but a SSW could change that - so winter is over thread!?

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


David M Porter
25 November 2019 10:46:16

the seasonal models are going for a mild winter that’s probably why it was mention about this upcoming cold spell being coldest for the next 3 months 😆

Originally Posted by: Argyle77 


Would these be the same seasonal models which last winter were seemingly indicating the likelihood of a notable cold spell in January/February, only for the polar opposite of that to happen in the latter month?

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
ballamar
25 November 2019 11:08:30

the seasonal models are going for a mild winter that’s probably why it was mention about this upcoming cold spell being coldest for the next 3 months 😆

Originally Posted by: Argyle77 


 


it certainly won’t be the coldest, more opportunity around mid December for something of interest. This one looks like slipping away. Nice as an early season snap

White Meadows
25 November 2019 12:41:09
Where’s Stropshire today? I’d like to hear his opinion on the upcoming cold in light of recent projections of prolonged and embedded zonality.
doctormog
25 November 2019 13:03:12


 


Would these be the same seasonal models which last winter were seemingly indicating the likelihood of a notable cold spell in January/February, only for the polar opposite of that to happen in the latter month?


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


I'm sure they have improved massively in the past year 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
fairweather
25 November 2019 14:17:47

We could end up with a cold spell which lasts a week. That's not bad going in the UK and could easily be the longest cold period of the winter. Climatology tells us that. Therefore my advice is cold weather fans should get out and enjoy it! Looking at model runs in the hope of something that dots more i's and crosses more t's may not be productive.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


..... and potentially the coldest December spell since.....?

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Argyle77
25 November 2019 15:02:19
The seasonal models have been very poor.
But then trying to work out the weather patterns for 3 months ahead will always be impossible.

Too many variables etc..

It's easy for them to forecast low pressure to the North of UK and high pressure to the South,which they have done,that's the UK default pattern in the winter!

But even that rarely last 3 months,so picking when the cold spells will occur would be the idea,but they never do that,just generalise the next 3 months.
Not worth bothering with.
tallyho_83
25 November 2019 15:06:00

The seasonal models have been very poor.
But then trying to work out the weather patterns for 3 months ahead will always be impossible.

Too many variables etc..

It's easy for them to forecast low pressure to the North of UK and high pressure to the South,which they have done,that's the UK default pattern in the winter!

But even that rarely last 3 months,so picking when the cold spells will occur would be the idea,but they never do that,just generalise the next 3 months.
Not worth bothering with.

Originally Posted by: Argyle77 


 


I agree. Last winter many of not all.models went for a cold blocked January and February and we all.know how that turned out. Also they went for a milder than average October and November this year and October was below average and November will finish below average. So yes. The seasonal models have been poor of late.

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


JACKO4EVER
25 November 2019 15:25:14

Where’s Stropshire today? I’d like to hear his opinion on the upcoming cold in light of recent projections of prolonged and embedded zonality.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


hes been swept away on a tide of positive NAO bless him 😉

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