At least it’s going to be dry and should be fairly decent winter weather. No gales, heavy rain etc. Just hope we get a bit of brightness under the HP and not cloudy clag for days on end. Some more weather like the first week of December would be most welcome - that was gorgeous. 

No one has mentioned about the continued trend for a SSW forecast by models @ 10hpa from +240z.

The ECM ensembles have dipped cooler this evening with what appears to be high pressure dominated all the way out to day 15 give or take the odd blip.

martin

not even close to a SSW I'm afraid ( I wish it was). The warming is just skirting the surf zone it is actually helping to spin and tighten the vortex ie strengthen it. A day or two ago it was looking alot more interesting at 1mb in the later stages of the run but the strengthened warming it was showing has now been dropped. 

So you're saying it's not warm enough to be a SSW or not in the right location of the Arctic/polar regions?? Or the fact that the PV hasn't been destroyed?

Yes - 4th January ish see the 06z chart here:

 - Only a few just reach -5c @ 850hpa

the current 12z ENS: - Notice the dip around 4th Jan:

-Many ENS go to and below -5c @ 850hpa.

A significant warming can sometimes give the desired effect with an increase in GPH ( geopotential heights) and blocking to the north. A SSW sudden rise in temperature of 50c or more that lasts over several days and has the effect of reversing the zonal wind direction at 60n from west to east. 

The warming we are seeing is if anything increasing the westerly zonal wind. You really want to see the warming cut into the vortex disturbing the vortex and weakening the zonal wind.

Some good news at long last for the areas affected by flooding recently.

There hasn't been any flooding in my part of the world, at least that I have been aware of, but all the same we could do with a number of dry days soon. The ground is totally saturated here and has been ever since the end of the summer if truth be told.

Right so it's really a Stratospheric warming not a SSW? I was watching the video on stratospheric temperatures in GavsWeatehrVids: - I know this should be in media thread but seeing as he is analyzing and discussing the models - i thought I would share this here: 

There is a significant warming at 1hpa:

https://youtu.be/eGtWWJccdUE

Couldn't agree more, Neil. If the 18z GFS and 12z ECM runs are indicative of the trend then high pressure will be in charge and for much of the time only the far north-west will be in the milder flows. The 18z serves up average temperatures overall with some below average night time values.

ECM 12z ensemble for London, 2m temperatures:



Very little evidence of any sustained mild weather and a developing signal for a brief cold snap around the 4-6th, under high pressure.

Yes in line with what the met Office's update is - that's colder with frost and fog in drier spells!? Never have they mentioned milder and or warmer than average. RE Uppers - yes but not at surface. Despite no snow I would be delighted to see some drier weather for a few days at least as would many others.

I could not agree more. It is quite staggering to have witnessed the dramatic difference in winter temperatures in one life-time, (my own that is), having been a child in the 60s to now being close to 60 today, and that is not just foreshortening of the memory, or rose tinted spectacles on ones childhood, but cold hard fact. Winters were colder and snowier. Go back another generation and the contrast is greater. My father learned to ice skate on ponds in Sussex (the Deep South of the U.K.) and I cannot imagine that today. Finding ice on a pond is rare, but thick enough to take the weight of several people?? 

I find it hard to accept that there can be still climate change denial, unless paid off by the oil companies. It's saddening, because those beautiful Scandinavia HPs of my childhood, with ice blue skies, snow showers and clear dry air are now like blue moons.

the stats will make this clear...but this sort of change is absurdly rapid in global terms, and I do my bit, eating less meat, driving an electric car, powered by green energy, but it's futile in the face of the big denial countries. 

It is really no surprise that perhaps 80% of winters are now like the 2009 period. In fact I think we are possibly even looking at a 10% chance of a winter having any decent cold spells now.  I hope I am wrong on this at least. It's the greater energy in the jet from all the heat. It does not seem so likely to get a settled. Lock for long.

Well said.  Its refreshing to have the painful truth spoken out.  

High pressure continues to dominate with mostly W/SW to start with, and later more NW plunges down the N Sea (e.g. Fri 10 Jan). A couple of small embedded troughs for the S on Tue 31st and Fri 3rd, the former referred to on the BBC last night as an upper level LP. I suspect the SW-lies will be bringing up a lot of moisture and any really warm and sunny weather will be found locally in the lee of mountains as the Fohn effect operates. Just mild for the rest of us.

Snow cover in eastern Europe has almost reached the Baltic states but with westerlies in the forecast I won't be placing bets on it getting any further. https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

Ens temp runs remaining mostly above average though with agreement on dips around the 30th and again on the 4th (the letter widespread and actually going below seasonal normal, not obvious from the synoptics) after which variability sets in.  Mostly dry except for far N.

A quick look through perturbations at T+180 doesn't offer much change from the HP domination

A slightly better GFS 00z ens set this morning, if it's colder weather you're after IMO. Still not looking likely, brief Northerly plunges aside, but more potential compared to yesterday.

The T2M temps down here continue to look average to just above during the day time in the reliable part of the run but with night time temps a good 3-4c above normal suggesting cloud cover will be fairly widespread. Elsewhere and with a stronger SW flow a lot of the country will be milder, perhaps noticeably so as others have already highlighted.

Precip wise the 00z looks very dry down here, with little or no rainfall spikes.

With respect, that is an issue that is best discussed elsewhere for the sake of the well-being of this thread, IMHO.

Back to the model output: There does seem to be something of a trend towards a bit more of an HP influence, al least for a time, towards the end of next week that seemed likely a couple or so days ago. I'm sure people in many areas will welcome this after all the wet weather of recent weeks, not least those affected by flooding.

This is a bit like watching Harry Potter..... It that must not be named.....

😂😂😂😂

Classic. 

I can’t see why people just can’t say it how it is, unless we want to offend Donal Trump et al 

I wonder if he reads this thread ??? 😆

Discussing “Voldemort” is fine but this thread is for model output discussion. The intense Polar Vortex and associated prevailing westerlies and strong zonal flow are relevant, other issues less so unless we want to conflate weather and climate.

EVen when the output is mild there is plenty to discuss IMO. The only HP relevant to this specific thread is High Pressure.