IMO he’s got every right to mention GW in the MO thread. The two are inextricably linked, unless of course your Donald Trump or are blind to scientific data. 

Indeed, might spoil the snow flake free winter for many, albeit settling snow away from the North and high ground is less likely. There's several LPs wandering in to cold air at varying points and even the odd one that takes enough of a southerly track to bring some snow down here.

I guess of more concern is that there's essentially nothing in the way of settled weather, with plenty of rain (or sleet/snow) about meaning the risk of flooding won't be going away if it verifies.

IMO, we would all do well to remember what Brian said this time last year about discussing GW/CC and everything related to it on this forum.

I know there have been threads recently in UIA in which GW/CC has formed at least part of the discussion, but in my view it is probably in the best interests of harmony between posters in this particular thread if it is kept away from here.

👍🏻

First time in a long time Aberdeen has seen it's ensemble mean actually stay below average from beginning to end of the run:

Mike? - Could be in for some snow here?

Lots of “just on the wrong side of marginal” starting tomorrow I suspect. Mixed in with a large slice of “bright with a cold westerly wind” and a side serving of “at least the mountains are getting some snow”. 

I suspect you shall get some sleet and wet snow with rain followed by large wet snowflakes in heavier bursts of precipitation but nothing really settling - same for Edinburgh!?

Quite possibly, Tim.

What I would add is that IMHO, the output for the early part of March we are seeing at the moment is the most interesting the models have been at any time since the start of December. As I commented the other night, what seems to be likely to happen is that pressure will decline somewhat over the Med in the coming days compared to what has been the case for virtually all the winter, this allowing the jet stream to dig a bit further south.

I’ll take a summer 1995 repeat if it’s on offer!

IMBY In flat Cambridge I struggle to get any Snow even in cold Winter's, let alone March. Yet another winter gone by with out even a flake. 

Meanwhile the first major snow event of the Winter is just about to start for some parts of the North UKand hills of Wales. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/hirlam.php?ech=3&mode=45&map=430

Looking further afield my least favorite type of Winter Patten looks like setting up shop. Cool-Cold zonality a slight glimmer of hope for the South at day 10 on the ECM with a low diving Southeast and a chance of a rise in pressure behind it,but that's straw clutching and will be gone in a few hours.

For snow lovers, the chart to look at is https://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/static/uk/next3to6days/snow 3-6 days ahead showing widespread accumulations except for the SE (but I've found this site optimistic in the past)

The more conventional GFS shows as yesterday LP rolling through today, Thu 27th (but further south and not as deep; the BBC last night was in two minds as to whether this one would connect with the jet and deepen or not), Sat 29th, Tue 3rd (over the Isle of Wight with some quite cold air; looks the best chance of snow for S England), Sat 7th; cold zonal flow finally disrupted by ridge of HP, tentatively in the wake of the last LP but with a strong ridge to Scandi Wed 11th (but as noted yesterday, GFS keeps deferring this. If it happens there's even a chance of a weak easterly!)

ECM ignores a defined LP on Thu 27th but has the others in more or less the same place at the same time. FAX has the Thu feature at 991 mb in the Channel.

GEFS cool but with a short-lived spike of mildness most marked for the S on Sat 29th that wasn't there yesterday but has shown up in previous runs. Generally wet but drier early this week for the N than I would have expected from other charts

Why is the UK winter so predictable? - I said back in late December that we would have a horrible, mild winter with what should be winter appearing in early spring - the current model output appears to show I was correct.

I don't claim any special forecasting genius - it is just the most predictable pattern for the UK ever - mild soggy January and February, followed by a breakout of cold weather just when the plants are coming to life, leading to delicate buds being destroyed. My wife will be fretting about her acers and camelias once more, as the new growth is stunted and burnt by late frosts.

The models seems to be keen on the idea of a sting jetty-type compact low rattling through the South East at some point on Saturday morning. It is a long way off in forecasting terms and thus subject to fine tuning but it's hard to ignore the subtle agreement on this one.

This sorry excuse of a "Winter" continue where the first week of March is now looking like a continuation of Autumn '19/20.

LOL! My 'law' in full effect on that map 

Take that , but wont happen JFF for us all 

I bet we don't get a northwards adjustment on this one 

I was IMBY I'm afraid

But yes still a good chart 

A slight adjustment east and south  would be just fine.

😉

And in the shorter term

I'd be thrilled with that