Wouldn’t it!  The only thing that makes me pay any notice is the timescale. Some of the higher resolution output suggest something wet rather than white unfortunately (for both of us).

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Euro 4 looks a little odd with the pixels but shows some snow tonight in places
https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/web/en/2020/01/27/basis12/ukuk/weas/20012806_2712.gif 

Above 200m in N England I would have thought. Such a poor winter. One similar event in December and that has been it.

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Something might be stirring medium term with the best (not saying much) amplification so far this season being modelled from next weekend on. GEM a decent pick of them with enough of a push in heights north to deliver -10 across the East.
It’s very early days but one to watch.

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Few colder snaps on the ENS appearing - if the warming disrupts the PV enough could finally be some decent winter weather

P2 clearly has the best handle on things

P2 aside, to me the GFS ens are showing at best a few fleeting Northerlies courtesy of HP slumping around just to our West. Better than what we've generally had (today's little blip for some aside) but not more than a few crumbs from the winter table.

I think the best thing that can be said is that the Atlantic looks to be running out of a little steam, with HP more prevalent in the longer term so it might not be quite so unremittingly wet, which will be something

 

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Nice 18z thus far! 🙂

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I think this coincides with a Buchan cold spell, and very welcome it is too. All a bit transitory, but the gloopy Azores high gets squished about by the heavier cold air plunges - still directed by a strongish but more southerly orientated jet. Bit of a pattern repeat going on with the upgraded 18z, but we need to see a block now to let the cold pool and grow some roots. Then we might see a snow fest as the Atlantic tries to nibble at the heavy weight cold pool...I can dream...but it's a start. More runs needed.
Has the QBO changed switched?

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Well only a few days ago February was meant to start off mild ....but looking at the GFS ENS inc the operational/control etc...looks like there is growing support for a northerly blast end of 1st week of February around 5th or 6th but it's still FI:

ECMWF:

GEM:

Operational:

 

Control

P02:

P04:

P12:

P17

P18

 

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Although a northerly of sorts may be on the radar next week, the usual precautions apply plus of course my mantra in these situations - beware Trojan GFS runs bearing gifts.
Sorry if I sound like a stuck record but until the UKM extended starts to lean towards it then it remains simply a whim in 180hr+ model space.

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Definitive drop in the GFS ENS around 4th Feb..especially for Northern UK..not looking like a sustained colder spell at the minute..but hayho... I'll take it all day long compared to the dross fest so far this winter

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Besides a dubious northerly, some cold air from the east is heading this way in week 2 http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 tough that's a long way off temporally and geographcally. Perhaps a little encouragement from the behaviour of the jet stream which continues westerly until Mon 3rd and then loops a lot, with a tendency to put the UK under a northerly flow - though back to westerly at end of run on Wed 12th.

For the charts here and now, GFS westerly flow, not that vigorous, until Tue 4th; then a weak northerly until Tue 11th though for the second half of that week the 'northerly' air is coming round the top of the Atlantic high rather than down from the Arctic. Finally back to zonal on Wed 12th with HP over the Netherlands. Better for coldies than anything recent but still not much to catch hold of.

ECM similar to Tue 4th then brings in the northerly with LP running down the N Sea, but then positions the subsequent HP over UK rather than in the Atlantic, really cutting off supply of Arctic air.

After  a damp and mild spell 1st - 4th Feb, temps take a dip below normal until Sun 9th (not shown yesterday; more like 7th in the north) then resume close to normal. On the dry side after 4th.

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It may be brief and jam tomorrow and, based on GFS performance, unlikely to come to fruition but it is quite a potent northerly that has been modelled several times for Feb 5th from that model:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_204_33.png 

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