ECM and others are absolutely stunning for May so hopefully it's just the GFS having a mare.

That would be one way of putting it 

Totally agreed, and as per Brian's (IIRC) post in the Media thread re: the ECM32, the overall picture points a positive way.

Yup, I hear you...

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 gets rid of all the 'blue' for the first time this year in week 2 and moves the 'yellows'up into central Europe. Some substantial rain also sown on the companion site for week 2 in the NW of UK. Jetstream stays away from UK until Sat 16th after which resumes first W-E across UK then stronger from the SW in pulses through to Wed 27th

GFS brings the current HP south; centre still N of UK until Fri with E-lies but by Mon 18th further S with zonal flow across UK. The LP on the Atlantic responsible for maintaining this flow splits off a small but intense secondary (990 mb Wales) on Sat 23rd (cf Moomin's post above). Once this is through HP exerts increasing control through to Fri 29th, its position generates SW-lies at first, NW-lies later, but all sourced from mid-Atlantic so mild.

GEFS temps back to seasonal norm by Sun 17th and not far from norm through to Fri 29th, if anything a bit above at first and a bit below later. Dry at first, rain  quite general from Thu 21st, in small amounts for England but in Scotland & NI rather greater.  No consensus on any special event for the 23rd as suggested above.

ECM as GFS for this week but much less zonal from 18th, minimal activity on Atlantic and HP centred over UK by Wed 20th with warm S-lies

Yes a concerning trend as I suggested yesterday. ECM and UKMO still holding firm so far, but you just know they will back away and something between the two will end up as the likely outcome.

Longer term is looking increasingly disturbed and Matt Hugo has been tweeting that this is exactly what he has been expecting.

As ever, more runs will be needed, but nothing is ever simple in the UK.

BBC/Meteogroup remaining optimistic for those 20+ C temps for weekend and early next week

GFS is sticking to its theme of quite a potent system coming in the 7-10 day time frame. Looks like it has grabbed onto this trend and is running with it. Will be very interesting to watch ECM/UKMO to see if they back track to show something similar. I feel that they will.

Edit. But as has been noted below, it zips the low through really quickly and on a different track, so affecting the north more than the south on this run.

 In GFS 06 the speed in which the low develops over the 24 hours 20th May to 21st May is very pronounced. GFS 12 less so. Should be a very interesting few days. 

We're making the old TWO mistake of worrying about events at 240hrs and not looking forward to what happens in the first week, where all models suggest it remaining very dry, generally sunny and with temperatures rising gently up to the mid 20s. Even G 12z yesterday had that.

From around 180hrs we start to get divergence depending on how far a slingshot Atlantic system makes its way across us. Until then it's looking good. I keep telling myself to be optimistic and not worry too much about FI.

You can always tell when summer is approaching. The prophet of doom Moom pops in  on his daily quest for unseasonably miserable weather...its the last thing we need to read with the current dire UK situation. 

Lovely ECM right out to T+192 - very settled. 

.... and turning very warm by t+216. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_216_2.png

First genuine blowtorch feed I've seen this season.  

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwf.aspx?run=12&charthour=240&chartname=mslp850&chartregion=na&charttag=MSLP%20850hPa%20C

Yes lovely stuff probably approaching 30c in the SE

I'm running a very short Twitter poll this evening:

Do you think summer 2020 in the UK will be (PS: I'm giving a strong hint which answer is favoured)

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) May 13, 2020

Get used to such things, I doubt many of us will see enough rain this growing season and the chances of a cold wet summer are zero.

But Devon has had some rain and grass is fairly plentiful.

I hope that’s the case but I’ve already seen the warmth predicted for the second half of this week evaporate. Still a max of 14C tomorrow which is rather poor as it was meant to be up to 19-20C by then according to the forecast a few days ago. Hopefully tomorrow night will see the last frost and I can actually get some more things planted out. 

GFS: HP still trundling S and linking up wit Azores high to provide mild SW airflow by Sun 17th. For the following week the HP re-invents itself as a ridge over the N Sea which with LP on the Atlantic gives generally S-ly winds. The model is still running with a small intense LP coming in from the Atlantic on Sat 23rd but doesn't last with large area of HP positioned over S England for the following week, though declining and pulling back to the SW by the end of the week (Sat 30th)

GEFS: as yesterday, temps back to seasonal norm by Sun 17th and not far from that through to Sat 30th, though a bit warmer at first and a bit cooler later. Small amounts of rain on and off in the S from Thu 21st but in Scotland and NE England from Sun 17th (though nothing as dramatic as implied by the synoptics above for the 23rd)

ECM similar to GFS with exceptions: the narrow ridge over the N Sea after Sun 17th is predicted to be a larger area of HP, and the disturbance on Sat 23rd stays offshore and runs N-wards towards Iceland rather than affecting S England.

Newbie here-although have been following these discussions for well over a year, and find them, and also Dew's analyses, very instructive.

On whole weather looks very good for next week, maybe more. Focusing on the intense low pressure shown on GFS for 22 May. Rather strange (I am not saying unprecedented!) to see such an intense feature at this time of year. May well be downgraded in time. As it travels over Southern England the low then fills significantly. ECM has very different solution to this (as pointed by DEW).

Whereas in this neck of the woods....