Indeed, April and May have been better than many high summer months here, so I feel like I've had my sunshine quota for the year and anything in "real" summer is a bonus. I have a week booked off work from June 15 though so hoping the unsettled spell blows itself out by then. The long-term models are fluctuating so much that it's still too early to call.

As you always are

It wouldn't be a summer on TWO without Moomin writing off an entire month at some point. 

Is there a TWO Summer forecast coming as it's normally one of the better ones? Perhaps it's being frantically rewritten.

Potentially record breaking low temperatures on Saturday in Scotland.

5.1C is the all time June minimax to beat.

To be fair, he does have Arks to sell 

The true holy grail scenario is for the cold front on the 6th to develop a closed circulation. Secondary low + marginally cold air = Snow. Snow = record low daytime temperatures!

It was issued earlier this morning.

Minimax. I have a new word to add to my databank. A cinema for midgets or a low budget car for people trying to reduce their sugar consumption?

The 6Z GFS restores a bit of cheer in the latter stages with temps back to the mid 20s in time for my week off work (15 June) and the chance of some storms for the south...

PS looks like a decent summer overall in the TWO forecast. August being possibly the warmest month - now that really would be a turn-up!

.

Lots of easterlies on the 6z goes with my thinking for a good chunk of summer perhaps hot but also quite wet with lots of continental thundery weather.

Are the GEFS picking up the first blowtorch of the summer? From the east?

Temperatures above average, occasional hot spells with thundery weather drifting in off the continent? Sign. Me. Up 

Pleased to see the 06z GEFS entertaining the prospect of hotter weather towards mid-month 

As low as that - Amazing.

Tbf it is contingent on near constant preciptation, if the sun comes out it will probably be a few degs warmer (though even then unlikely to be double digits).

The ultimate scenario is a secondary low coming into the NW coast near dawn. Evap cooling + precip will turn it to snow. And snow will hold the temps even lower. Its unlikely but such a scenario was responsible for the latest ever ice day on record (mid April snow event if I'm not mistaken).

I know that, Kieren. To be fair to Matty, I think he was just trying to wind you up a little.

A max of 1c and heavy snow in June in parts of Scotland must be absolutely exceptional. Unbelievable charts.

The 12z GFS for your neck of the woods at the weekend is absolutely extraordinary. I don't think I've ever seen anything colder in June. For the rest of us, cold and unsettled for a very long time sums up the charts up to 192 hours, and probably beyond.

Shockingly vile.

I will revisit it after the event but as I said double figures looks likely. Possibly only just though which is a bit depressing. Not extraordinary just poor for early June and maybe cold enough for some snow on the mountains.

10cm based on this run https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_126_25.png 

12z GFS is an appalling run.

A low pressure system sits to the north of Scotland like a limpet for the vast majority of the run, just whirring away. 

Bizarre. I hope it doesn’t verify. A slack flow off the Irish Sea is a crap direction for us here. 

MetO is more optimistic with HP nudging in from the West by T+144. 

Warm up still there from about the 11th. Will it hold?