GEFS consensus growing on a sudden end to the warm/hot spell around 26th/27th. Meanwhile I have woken up to a very rare sight of steady rain!

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 not quite a dire as above, but rain around generally especially in the NW. Jetstream soon settles down to running across the UK all the way through to Sat 4th, mostly across the south.

GFS is sort of zonal; around Tue 23rd a deep LP on Atlantic brings some warm air to the SE on a SW flow after which it turns more W-ly and towards end of run (from Thu 2nd) shallow LPs taking a track across Scotland.

GEFS - temps uo to 5 or 6 C above normal Sun 21st - Sat 27th for the S, then around seasonal mean, and very dry. Scotland and N Engand have a smaller bump of warmth Fri 26th, and rain on and off throughout, heavier and more persistent further N.

ECM - emphasises the warmth around Thu 25th and then brings up a thundery low from the S which only begins to merge with a weaker zonal flow from Sun 28th

Yes always cautious it is the UK after all. But the ECM this morning shows what could happen if everything falls into place an we get lucky.

Admittedly these GEFS T2M temperatures are for London but I'm struggling with the marked cool down statement ?

Thanks for the sanity check Steve.

Looks like a very decent signal for some settled and hot weather for you lot down in the SE especially.

I meant that the ECM Ensembles this morning show a marked cool down and that the op was a big outlier.

Sorry for lack of clarity.

It's an outlier 850 wise but mean still 10c at day ten in the SE. About 4c above average.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?x=316&y=142&run=0&type=0&runpara=0

GEFS 00z mean is actually below par in much of the UK during the 10 to 15 day period. Think it's the first time that's happened since I added these charts in a few weeks ago. 

 https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&chartname=21_meantemp10_15dayeuhd_anom&chartregion=euranom&p=21&charttag=Day%2010%20to%2015%20temp%20anomaly

Yes, the ensembles do not show a “marked cool down” 

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperature 

I’m talking about the t2m not the temperatures at around 5000ft asl (which is what the vast majority of people will experience!)

A marked cool down too 10c 850s is a oxymoron.

Four 30c days in a row next week on the GFS 6z.

quite something seems to be gathering some momentum, looking forward to it but not the mosquito invasion!

Hot GFS Max temps from Tuesday.

28c, 30c, 30c, 32c, 32c, 31c midday

Lol GEM is even hotter mid 30s 20c 850s next week

GEM Max temps from Tuesday.

28c, 33c, 31c, 35c, 35c, 34c midday

Some absolute monsters of runs this evening so far. Just a quick selection:

UKMO Wed (144):

ICON at same time:

Both ICON and UKMO seem to go for a hot but early peak. Whereas GFA and GEM go for longer, extended build up and later peak.

GFS next Sat (225 hours):

Then GEM, which is out on its own in the monster category, similar time:

The funny thing is it still feels quite knife-edge, because of that big swirling low pressure to the west that might decide to sweep the whole thing away.

39C on the NAVGEM. Always a fun model to go to anytime there is a heatwave!

Just checking the GEM again and on the HD Temp it actually has 36c on Friday , Saturday and Sunday. June record!

Quite the temperature gradient there between (roughly) Crawley and Brighton.

EDIT actually probably closer to Pulborough and West Wittering.