GFS shows Hp continuing for this week pumping up warm air from the south, Sat 11th's threatened breakdown now only an LP moving N of Scotland but does bring in some colder air behind it.Then more HP moves up from the SW, over the UK by Wed 15th but unlike previous forecasts heads off to Iceland  (not Norway) Tue 21st with cold NE-ly winds developing.

ECM slow to load this morning and the 12z still showing HP over Norway after Sat 11th with LP established in western approaches [Later edit: ECM sticking to its guns with LP over the west of UK Sat/Sun 11th/12th, then the HP establishing over Norway by Wed 15th and the LP finishing up positioned to the SW as before, with mild SE-ly winds -- contrast GFS!]

GEFS for the S consistently mild through to Sun 12th April and good hopes for that continuing through to Fri 17th after which a lot of divergence but probably cooler. Bits and pieces of rain in different ways in different runs. Pattern for Scotland not dissimilar but less agreement between runs, and not so much above seasonal norm and a cluster of runs with rainfall around Sat 11th

[More edit: For 3 or 4 days now I've been noting quite sharp pattern changes around 11th/12th April, bot between and within models. Any qualified meteorologist like to explain? "Sod's Law" does not qualify as an explanation)

Not sure about that. Last Sunday I went out for my permitted walk with the family and we were blasted with snowflakes on a northeast wind. Yesterday we were out for a walk in T-shirts and spent the rest of the day in the garden!

I think it's not too much stretching a point to say these were both examples of the 'same type of weather' i.e. a high pressure cell in place over the UK (and sticking around for some weeks) I'd count it different if the weather went zonal and we had a mobile sequence of depressions as was indeed the case throughout most of the 'winter'

Where are all those April showers?

Overall picture is continuing mild and dry,http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4, perhaps some rain much later on in the west

GFS synoptics show HP currently over UK weakening by Sat 11th to allow LP to pass close to N of Scotland with brief N-lies before new HP centre from Atlantic parks itself over Scotland 1030mb Tue 14th. Shallow LP then develops to the SW and moves NW across UK Thu 16th only for HP to re-establish itself Mon 20th and continuing to end of run Wed 22nd though with LP continuing to nag away at SW.

ECM still loading so still 12z in later stages - similar to Sat 11th but LP then drops back to SW instead of moving across to Norway

GEFS in S - runs agree  on mild to Sun 12th after which divergence, still mainly on mild side to Fri 17th then mean close to or a little below seasonal norm. Mainly dry but a few isolated runs have big rainfall spikes after 11th.  In Scotland quite good agreement on cool spell around Mon 13th and then mild again to 17th (this pattern appears only on some runs in the S) and a little rain later on but no extremes.

I can't believe I'm saying this after the drenching winter that we've had, but I could do with a bit of rain for the garden.  The last three weeks have seen the fastest change in soil conditions that I've ever seen, from sodden, saturated, and squelchy to bone dry and cracking thanks to the very drying NE or E winds that we have had.  When I was out on my permitted exercise walk on Sunday I was crossing a field that had been cultivated for sowing, the lumps of soil were like concrete, and the wind was blowing up the fine dusty soil into miniature whirlwinds.

Looking at the GEFS for London, we won't have any this week, but maybe next weekend.

We had ours yesterday.

Looks like they'll be arriving over the weekend.

All the ingredients of the last few days seem to be still there, but some rearrangements in time and place mean that some people will be disappointed - or cheered up!

GFS 0z- The current HP lasts to Friday when a trough appears over the UK linking the LP to the SW with one north of Scotland (FAX makes a bigger rainfall feature of the S-ly end of this). Eventually the LP sits over the UK and with HP developing from the Atlantic to NW Scotland, there is a spell of cold NE-lies from Easter Monday. We then swing between HP to the south and S-lies (Wed 15th, Fri 24th) and HP to the NW with cold N-lies (notably the weekend of 18th/19th)

ECM similar to start with but on and after the cold spell on Mon 13th only the 12z run has loaded so far, and that keeps the HP over Europe and consequently resuming mild at least to Fri 17th.

GEFS matches the GFS up to the 19th after which no certainty; it doesn't rate the rain in the S this weekend but there is a cluster around the 19th. Similar for Scotland and N England though the uncertainty both in temp and rainfall sets in a couple of days earlier.

Where was everybody yesterday? Anyway, there seems to be more certainty about models today.

The jetstream continues weak and to the north of the UK until Monday, when it goes into a loop with a strong flow down the N Sea to generate a cut-off low in Biscay. By Thu 16th it is again running N of the Uk, but with some action in the Med. After Sun 19th it fragments, with its energy being directed N and S of the UK. sometimes the N branch stronger, sometimes the S branch..

10-day forecast http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 temps above average for W Europe throughout (Mon looks to be a brief aberration), also dry with some exception for western fringes.

GFS - After a short spell of cold NE-lies on Monday, the HP settles over or just east of the UK for the week to Sun 19th, combining with the LP over Biscay for a run of S/SE-ly winds (the LP occasionally threatens to come closer so showers in the W/SW possible) End of run on Tue 21st still warm but a hint of the first thundery(?) 'Spanish plume' of the season pushing up from the S (but a long way off!)

ECM similar

GEFS different to yesterday, for the S the majority of runs are 3-5C above seasonal norm  (but a few exceptions) through to Thu 23rd after which  a slight cooling; bits and pieces of rain now and then. For the Scotland and the NE, a pronounced dip in temps on Mon 13th, then again above average but not quite as much as in S and less agreement between runs. Plymouth has a few runs with  big rainfall spikes around the 17th

10-day outlook still warm and dry for a couple of weeks, but less warm than previously forecast and a lot of rain for France and Spain http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 & http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4, The cold blast on Monday should be no surprise given that most of Scandinavia is still snowbound natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

And the models in detail? GFS has HP moving to NW of Britain by Mon 13th, and LP more developed in SW to give the well-telegraphed cold NE-ly (not that NE coasts aren't getting a foretaste). HP then drifts across the UK and settles over Scandinavia by  Thu 16th and LP from the S affects England for a few days. After that the Scandi HP intensifies for a period of warm(?) SE-lies in the following week until troughs assert themselves over the S by Fri 24th eventually linking to LP over the Atlantic on Sun 26th (replacing yesterday's hint of a Spanish plume)

ECM similar but less convinced about a strong Scandi HP; it's there but weaker and LP approaching the SW from Atlantic on Sun 19th

FAX moves the HP into Europe by Tue 14th, cutting off the NE-ly more quickly than other models

GEFS for the S does not pick up the cold plunge on Mon 13th though it shows a little rain on most runs.. For the N and Scotland  OTOH the dip in temps very noticeable but brief.  Then agreement on mild (v. mild in S) until about Sun 19th, with  a little rain sporadically, after which mean temp of runs declines to average but wide variation. Yesterday's big splashes in the SW no longer in forecast.

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html

The 10-day forecast looks warmer again today than yesterdays' cool run http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 MetO in fact shows unbroken sunshine for my location on S Coast for a full week.

After Monday's N-ly or E-ly plunge GFS re-establishes HP quickly, first over UK and eventually wandering off to Scandi where it sticks around until end of run on Mon 27th. The UK on the fringes of this has mostly S-ly or Se-ly winds with occasional troughs trying to push up from the south in a rather weak and unconvincing manner (Fri 17th Wed 22nd Sun 26th - showers only? and subject to change?)

ECM slower to develop HP, positions it over N Europe rather than Scandi, trough from the S on Mon 20th (12z forecast at time of posting)

GEFS for the S; a slight dip on Monday then runs agree on mild or even warm through to Fri 24th after which runs begin to differ significantly, and more cooler ones appear. Little bits and pieces of rain from time to time . Scotland and NE have much more of a dip on Monday and slightly more chance of rain later on; Plymouth & S Wales almost no dip  in temp and more chance of rain throughout (but only chance)

A remarkable change on the way down here according to the Met Office modelling at least.

Today: 22C, light winds, sunny.
Tomorrow: 8C, strong and cold NE'lies, cloudy.

It'll be like going from August to February overnight!

I was out in the garden for much of yesterday in the warm sunshine. Here is the regional Met Office forecast for tonight: “A few light snow showers will affect Moray and North Aberdeenshire,”.

On a different note the very dry conditions look like continuing for the foreseeable future. Scottish Water has already warned customers on private supplies in NE Scotland about a potential shortage this summer.

Le previsioni del tempo e mobile as Verdi should have written but probably didn't.  The warm weather is further from the Channel coast http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 (but this doesn't match GFS below)and blobs of rain which were sitting over the UK on last night's chart (inland only, implying convective showers) have disappeared again in favour of a long dry spell http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

Jetstream after Monday's blast down the N Sea, breaks up into northern and southern branches avoiding the UK and with lots of fragmentation in each branch.

GFS indicates from Tuesday HP developing as a ridge from Faeroes to France through to Sat 18th (not as far east as yesterday) and then in the following week further north, from Scotland to Norway. Winds mostly E to SE. Slack LP skirmishing to the SW or S in week 2 but not very close.

ECM similar

GEFS for S cool on Mon 13th but rapidly recovering to mild, even warm, until 23rd, then most runs back to average temps to end of run on 28th   For the E, cold not just cool and 13th and a smaller dip in temp on Fri 17th as well;  for the SW no dip on 13th, otherwise same pattern of mild/warm before cooling down . Mostly dry, no systematic rainfall but best chances around Sun 19th +/- 2 days esp in SW.

It's incredible how our weather has flipped from incessant rain to bone dry in such a short spell of time. Almost unnatural.

You could argue it's changeable but not in the normal sense. Contrast in temperatures with change in position of the HP but dry as you like. No measurable rain here for a month now and none in the foreseeable future. Would have made a great winter !

After the cool down tomorrow, GFS going for a particularly chilly spell towards the end of next week. If only it was...
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_288_33.png
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_288_2.png
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_288_10.png
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_288_4.png

Could get that chilly spell next week Moomin you were banging on about a few weeks ago. Pure guess though as the same charts were showing +25c a couple of days ago.

Overall outlook on temp is down as the yellows retreat back to the Medhttp://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 and still dry - if you get a shower, treasure it!

GFS has HP sitting around over UK for week 1 (to Sat 18th) while LP over Baltic brings cold air south into Europe - no direct N-lies but the -ly or SE-ly winds likely for the UK may pick up a backwash from this. Week 2 (to Sat 25th) the HP tends to shift towards Iceland with a more definite E-ly or even NE-ly (Wed 22nd). Finally on Wed 29th HP has retreated into mid-Atlantic and we get a direct N-ly blast (but as commented before, a long way off and may never happen)

ECM similar in week 1 but rather differently positions the HP over Norway in week 2 with an Atlantic LP affecting the NW of the UK through to Wed 22nd.

GEFS - Agreement between runs breaks up around Mon 19th (it was more consistent for longer yesterday) but mean of runs in S stays above seasonal average to about Wed 22nd and then a couple of degrees below through to Wed 29th, Dry, just a few runs with big rainfall spikes late on. Temps in Scotland and NE England quite warm briefly on Wed 15th followed by a sharp dip on Fri 17th before resuming as above. More chance of rain in SW and Wales esp around Fri 19th

Indeed. Even with everything else that is happening in this country and around the world just now, the change to generally much drier weather since the middle of March has been very welcome.