can anybody remember what websites these charts/maps are from again please?

 I'd been surprised if anyone on here has seen a drier GFS ensemble for their area than the above. We are almost halfway through the month and yet not one of my three local stations has recorded a total of more than 1 mm over the course of this entire month, based on each observation day starting at 09:00 UTC (10am BST).

I have discussed these actual totals on many occasions in this month's PW thread which is the appropriate place for such a discussion. However, I also showed in that thread how we are currently on course for this month to go down as our driest April on record just three years after that last happened in 2017.

If the above ensembles verify, then we surely have to say that this month will indeed, go down as our driest April on record here in Edinburgh.

Jetstream staying clear of the UK for the foreseeable - lots of loops this week and mainly to the north of the UK until about Fri 24th, when the bits of it that were south of the UK link up and run strongly through the Med. Just a hint that it will be back over the UK, running from the SW on Thu 30th

GFS synoptics have UK under slack ridge of HP from Iceland to Balkans until Sun 19th and shallow LP to the SW, less incursion of cold air from E than shown yesterday up to that point. The HP then moves north as a definite centre in the Norwegian Sea until Fri 24th with winds turning E then NE, before collapsing and allowing a depression to approach from the Atlantic 985mb off SW Ireland on Wed 29th and spreading up the W coast.

ECM develops the northern HP a day or two earlier and then moves it out into the Atlantic by end-of-run Thu 23rd with more in the way of E/NE-ly winds.

FAX charts also place the HP to the north early on, and make more of the development of a trough in the Channel than the above through to Sat 18th

GEFS runs for S mild/warm until Tue 21st then on the whole cool, matching the shift in position of HP above (but with exceptions) through to Thu 30th. A new feature is a cluster of rainfall spikes Fri/Sat 17th/18th in S/SW and to some extent in NW (BBC weather this morning also suggesting showers from the S/SW by then). Most runs dry thereafter but again more with chances of rain than yesterday.

The N cools down a couple of days earlier, and is almost entirely dry in NE England & Scotland

Inverness still showing snow row figures in the teens at the end of the month.

There are loads of parameters but this will give you a link to get started https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/max-temperature-6h/20200414-1200z.html 

Thank you Doc 🙂 this is the website. I couldn't remember the name of it.

Models shifting to a bit wetter in the South, Friday -Saturday

It's still looking very dry where I live. Really could do with some rain for the garden. 

FAX (especially) and ECM now showing LP developing on the Atlantic for this weekend, throwing a trough forward to affect the south of the UK over the weekend. GFS reluctant to move from its yesterday's pattern of a broad ridge of HP running N-S across or slightly E of UK. ECM then brings further LP up from France Tue 21st before rejoining GFS and predicting HP 1035 mb over Norway/Scotland  Thu/Fri 23rd/24th and NE-lies across S Britain.

GFS similar but emphasises HP over and to the N of UK and downplays LP over France. From Fri 24th GFS keeps HP around the N of UK but gradually weakening and by Wed 29th shallow LP dominant over the UK. UK is on the edge of 552dam air for most of this time so temps could go either way.

GEFS has agreement  between different runs to Thu 23rd for mild weather (only just qualifying as mild in N), then cooler with some runs definitely cold. Less rainfall in immediate future  than yesterday and pushed back to Mon 20th (but more and sooner in SW, entirely absent in Scotland and NE); then more chances of rain later on from Mon 27th. 

Slightly above average temps, definitely at first, and dry once the rain at the end of this week has passed through http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.

In respect of that rain, FAX charts had it right  and the MetO chart for rainfall on Friday has a wel organised area of frontal heavy rain progressing northwards - I'd almost forgotten what that looked like!

For the longer term, GFS has well-defined HP 1030 mb over Norway Mon 20th with trough still hanging around over France for the week and strong E-lies at first; by Sat 25th HP over Norway has faded and a new centre over the Atlantic brings in NE-lies and eventually Fri 1st May has drifted across to Scotland 1040mb with wind going back to E/SE. 

ECM also has the HP over the Atlantic Sat 25th but not as strong as GFS and the HP cell drifts westwards from Norway, not a new centre. GEM does the same.

GEFS temps rather like yesterday; above average to Thu 23rd then dropping back to a little below h through to May 2nd with the usual divergence for week 2. More rainfall at first, in S 18th-21st (Fri-Mon) and not much nor consistent thereafter; the rain peters out a it moves N & E, Cardiff and Liverpool see it but nothing significant in Norwich and Newcatle, even less in Scotland. Some hints of rain here and there in a couple of weeks' time.

Thanks as always DEW!  After all the flooding and soggy ground in recent months, who’d have thought we’d be looking for rain!  Gardens definitely need it though.  

Once again, the south of England (which always appears to get all of the more "interesting" weather which is going these days) looks set to keep any upcoming rain events to itself whilst our spring borefest looks set to continue as shown on the above GFS ensemble for Edinburgh.

I am noticing just the odd rainfall spike starting to appear, but that still looks like a very dry ensemble to me. Furthermore, most of those rainfall spikes appear to be in the unreliable time frame of this particular GFS model and so, I would say that we remain very much on course for this month to go down as our driest April on record if that is right, which would beat a record which was only set as recently as April 2017.

However, that particular month (April 2017) was then followed by a poor summer in this part of the world which also included our wettest June on record, so I hope that this doesn't end up being a bad omen for the coming summer.

But at least that would be "interesting"?

You're actually correct there, because what would be described as "interesting" weather isn't necessarily going to be the sort of weather which we would actually want to see.

This works the other way around as well because the vast majority of us usually like to see warm and sunny weather, especially during the summer as that is part and parcel of what makes up a decent summer overall.

However, our best chance of getting that sort of weather will come from being under high pressure at that time but if this is the sort of blocking high which hangs around for a long time, our weather (even if it is warm and sunny) then becomes boring and uninteresting after a while, due to that being the dominant weather pattern which virtually never changes from day to day.

Because of that, I must also stress that just because the weather is boring, this doesn't necessarily that I don't actually want to actually experience that sort of weather. That is because my concept of what makes the weather interesting or boring is based more in terms of whether or not, that makes for interesting content on these forums, rather than the type of weather which I actually want to be seeing.

That may well be right although if that was the case down in the south of England, I'm sure that someone on this forum would probably have already started a separate thread which is devoted to that very subject.

On the other hand, that sheer lack of rainfall in this part of the world is happening as a result of a lack of any sort of actual "weather" happening here, and that is what makes it rather boring, repetitive and therefore, "uninteresting" from my perspective.

Furthermore, the fact that the Government has just extended the COVID-19 lockdown by another three weeks makes this the perfect time to be getting some rain in order to keep people at home in the manner in which the Government is looking for.

The latest GFS ensemble as shown below, continues to show no real signs of that actually happening for now.

Now there's gratitude for you! I've always taken care to distinguish Scotland from the N of England in the daily summaries so as to avoid upsetting sensibilities. If you're not careful, I'll go to the philosophy behind the notorious BR poster which advertised 'Excursions to Scotland and other towns in the North of England'

Yes, I do look at the S of England first in the GEFS but then I do live there. In any case, the south of England would need two months of dry weather before it merited a separate thread

As a result of all of that as well, all that we are likely to get here in the east coast of both Scotland and England (since it's not winter) is yet more easterly muck coming in from off the North Sea, along with cooler temperatures whilst it at least gets a bit warmer further inland with a greater chance of some sunshine. Because of that, I fear that our weather is about to get even more boring and uninteresting here in Edinburgh as a result, as if our weather wasn't already boring enough in this part of the world.

However, I had a feeling some time ago, that this would happen not so much due to the recent SSW Event (which didn't even propagate very well down to the 30 hPa level of the stratosphere, let along the troposphere where all of the weather actually happens), but due to the annual seasonal warming of the stratosphere which occurs anyway, due to the sunshine becoming that much stronger at this time of year.

Given that the exceptionally powerful polar vortex which is thought to have caused all of those flooding issues during the latter part of the winter in particular, was probably the result of an exceptionally cold stratosphere over the North Pole, it was always going to the case that in order for the stratospheric temperatures to recover to around normal, the amount of seasonal warming of the stratosphere would need to be so great that the effect of that on the troposphere would probably be similar to that of a SSW event anyway.

I would say that this is probably what has resulted in the current northern blocking being in place which is around just now, and which is likely to around for a while yet, resulting in those wind patterns which you have mentioned.

Back to the serious stuff ...

Jetstream shows little coherence over the next couple of weeks with loops and fragments everywhere except over the UK. However from Thu 30th a not-too-strong jet does develop over the British Isles. 10-day summary shows just above average temps and dry, just a bit of rain in the west.

After today's troughs from the south (the daytime one now shown a fizzling out before it reaches the North Midlands, the second one overnight making an impact about that far) GFS and ECM establish HP centre over Norway and LP over S France with SE-lies over UK for the first half of next week.

By Sat 25th both HP & LP have declined and pressure is slack over the UK for a few days. From Thu 30th GFS shows a zonal flow (remember those?) with LP over Iceland, HP over Biscay and W-lies. Finally on 3rd May the LP moves to Norway with a N/NW spell though the Atlantic remains blocked behind it.

GEFS runs similar nationwide, near seasonally average temps throughout with a crossover from just above to just below around Mon 27th but increasing uncertainty after that date. Also from that date increasing chances of rainfall especially away from SE England. (The SW & Wales get a bonus splash of rain on Mon 20th, nothing significant elsewhere)

HP over Norway 1035mb to Wed 22nd while LP over France flirts with the S of the UK with SE-ly winds, after which it collapses and by Mon 27th there is a depression running across Shetland with a zonal look to the weather (quite a change from previous forecasts when this feature developed at the end of that week). Another LP centre near Iceland Fri 1st May, after which HP develops in the Atlantic and blocks further W-lies, allowing the LP which has been hanging around over Spain to move north to threaten the S.

ECM agrees with the above GFS at first but is slower to bring the LP in from the Atlantic; it's still well west of Ireland on the 27th. 

GEFS runs have good agreement on temps a bit above seasonal norm to Mon 27th after which mostly a little below. Rain (not a lot) only appears after that date, mostly in the N of the UK