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On the grounds that Wokingham doesn't have a hospital (ours is the Royal Berks, and that's the same for the whole borough), it must be by home address.

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Tomorrow's Torygraph tears into the government. (Click for full size image))

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• London - 727 (81.61 deaths per million)

• Midlands - 437 (40.82 deaths per million)

• South East - 251 (27.48 deaths per million)

• North West - 211 (28.94 deaths per million)

• North East and Yorkshire - 211  (25.93 deaths per million)

• East of England - 178 (28.71 deaths per million)

• South West - 121 (21.61 deaths per million)

Based on population figures here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regions_of_England

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Thanks Darren. Sure a number of analysts could make better comments than me on these figures, but the standout to my untrained eye is not surprisingly London. Some serious measures need to occur here.

Certainly my thoughts for the same reason. Makes you think what happens if you happened say to be in Scotland or Wales at the time given the separate figures. Not that it matters given the horrible situation of course.

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So we still have another two weeks of pre-lockdown infection coming down the pike. Great. 

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For completeness:

• Scotland- 60 (11.03 deaths per million)


• Wales - 98 (31.22 deaths per million)


• Northern Ireland - 28 (14.88 deaths per million)

Wales higher than most other English regions, but Scotland and NI considerably lower. Maybe the populations there are less likely to go skiing in Italy or on overseas business travel?

 

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Spain's 24hr update reports 6,256 new cases and 667 new deaths

Both down on the same 24hr period to last night

New cases down 1,711

New deaths down 81

Or keep themselves to themselves.

I think the lockdown has kicked in comparatively earlier in the curve here in Scotland.  We were already further behind other parts of the UK I suspect.

Sounds like a mess. Some departments / public bodies sound like they are barely functioning, but the buck stops at the government either way. Only caveat is that similar challenges are evident elsewhere.

 

that was my understanding too. I feel relatively safe here - the biggest risk is actually getting food.

I think Wales' high figure is largely due to SE Wales (Aneurin Bevan Health Board). Several factors there, not sure about the being close to England one - if the cases are spreading out from London then they seem to have missed places like yours...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52093126

 

 

That seems to have eased down here.  On Monday I popped into the local Budgens  as I was getting  fuel and there was plenty of everything - except bog rolls.  I've   even managed to get a Tesco delivery slot for 17th April ........ yes, I know, Waitrose it ain't ........but any port in a storm

While on the subject Waitrose Delivers ...... doesn't.   Their Web site seems  to have been permanently broken since the Corona Virus hit town.

 

 

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Updated plots 

 

I think he problem is a deeper one: if/when this pandemic extends its reach and effects the risk of interruption to food imports grows. We are heavily dependent on imports and if the exporting countries see availability dropping they will prioritise their domestic needs. Further, ordinarily as we move into spring and summer UK supplies become more significant but we are seeing problems with finding sufficient labour to pick the crops. We have relied on cheap foreign workers but a perfect storm of Brexit and now closed borders are making this almost impossible.

That idiot adviser in government who said we don't need an agricultural sector here should be in hiding by now. It seemed daft when he said it; now it looks downright dangerous and reckless.

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As the guy who plots the data says:

• London now has more deaths than Wuhan at the same stage of the epidemic 


• New York has now become the global epicentre

Not quite. Once you get it, it takes about a week to die, so theoretically another week until the "true" infection peak (numbers may keep rising beyond as testing increases) and then another week until deaths start to decline.

So, it will be interesting to see how our numbers respond if there is an increase in testing following our 2nd week of lockdown.

I'm not sure how long a person remains contagious for once they have came down with the illness??

I guess lockdown restrictions would be lifted at march 24th plus 2weeks plus time contagious?

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I think that's optimistic.  The incubation period can be two weeks and then another 7-14 days whilst the body fights the infection or you don't make it, so I think that takes you to mid-April, give or take.  Then I think you need a period with the pressure off the NHS, to give the overworked staff a chance to rest/recover. It also give more time for restocking supplies and sourcing more equipment where needed. Then you're still dependent on stepping up testing because the virus will still be out there, circulating in asymptomatic patients and those wth mild symptoms.

I hope you're OK, by the way.

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I was just basing it on the average 23days from contraction to death that gavin (I think) posted earlier. I agree the virus will still be out there and there will no doubt be periods of smaller spikes (I think an initial larger spike due to mass gatherings of people making up for lost socialising).
Interesting theory about keeping us in lockdown longer to let others catch up or get a rest.

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April Fool?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8175471/British-American-Tobacco-working-COVID-19-vaccine-using-tobacco-leaves.html

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Apparently not.  Info was released on BaT website and kbp do medicinal work with tobacco plants

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No, MM and I commented on it earlier - around 19.30.

BAT trying to ensure it has a future beyond setting fire to dry leaves.

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Apologies if anyone has posted a link like this but I find this chart useful

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-deaths-days-since-per-million?country=CHN+USA+GBR+ITA+KOR+SWE+CAN

Cumulative deaths/million for some of the countries often talked about. It's a log chart - if you make it linear then Italy really does look bad.

MM - hadn't read that, I don't always check this thread that carefully, you guys post too fast! . But I think your link really shows what I am saying, that Sweden is having a big disagreement/panic about its rather maverick policies and is definitely one to watch. The current data from that graph seems to show Sweden tracking the UK reasonably closely, which does not look great. Problem as usual is interpreting what that really means - is this in spite of or because of their approach?

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