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Gavin D
11 April 2020 22:13:14
Spain's latest 24 hr period shows 4,754 new cases and 525 new deaths.

Both down on yesterday
John p
11 April 2020 22:20:57


 


Bullsh.it.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


Indeed.  Nothing in that article makes it sound like he was in a grave condition.


Camberley, Surrey
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
11 April 2020 22:22:02


Despite the high death rate, government approval goes up from 52% last week to 61% this week (Opinium).


Originally Posted by: JHutch 


It must be some kind of natural selection trait based on success in threat management: if the neighbouring tribe is rocking up to steal your crops/cattle/slaves/land then if you sit around bickering amongst yourselves about the response the outcome is usually far worse than getting behind the tribal leader - no matter how incompetent they are.


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Gandalf The White
11 April 2020 22:24:12


 


Indeed.  Nothing in that article makes it sound like he was in a grave condition.


Originally Posted by: John p 


Really? It says he was close to being placed on a ventilator, so his lungs must have been struggling to oxygenate his blood sufficiently and that brings the risk of damage to key organs.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


pfw
  • pfw
  • Advanced Member
11 April 2020 22:31:33


Agree, useful graph. I find this a good site to use as it gives graphs scaled per million population and linear/log scales. That 7 day average graph gives the best signal to me that lock downs may work (or at least have worked in Italy and Spain). Back of fag packet calcs:



  • Italy - lockdown start 9th March, 7 day average starts to fall around 3rd April => 25 days to affect 7 day average

  • Spain - lockdown start 14th March, 7 day average starts to fall around 4th April => 21 days to affect 7 day average

  • UK - lockdown start 23rd March => 7 day average should start falling around 23rd March + 23 days = 14th April if the lockdown is working.


As far as I can tell Italy had its largest number of daily deaths reported on March 28th, Spain on April 3rd which (as expected) is a little before the rolling average starts to fall.


So... putting all that together if the UK is on a similar course we may see a few more days of high deaths but by the end of next week at the worst the daily count should have plateaued and started to fall. In a good scenario it may start to fall a few days earlier.


Huge number of caveats of course - that the lockdown is actually having an effect, that the reported numbers are comparable and so on.


(I am also wondering about population density and whether that is helping the US and particularly Canada. Again it may just be testing coverage though)


--
Paul.
Gandalf The White
11 April 2020 22:45:16


 


Agree, useful graph. I find this a good site to use as it gives graphs scaled per million population and linear/log scales. That 7 day average graph gives the best signal to me that lock downs may work (or at least have worked in Italy and Spain). Back of fag packet calcs:



  • Italy - lockdown start 9th March, 7 day average starts to fall around 3rd April => 25 days to affect 7 day average

  • Spain - lockdown start 14th March, 7 day average starts to fall around 4th April => 21 days to affect 7 day average

  • UK - lockdown start 23rd March => 7 day average should start falling around 23rd March + 23 days = 14th April if the lockdown is working.


As far as I can tell Italy had its largest number of daily deaths reported on March 28th, Spain on April 3rd which (as expected) is a little before the rolling average starts to fall.


So... putting all that together if the UK is on a similar course we may see a few more days of high deaths but by the end of next week at the worst the daily count should have plateaued and started to fall. In a good scenario it may start to fall a few days earlier.


Huge number of caveats of course - that the lockdown is actually having an effect, that the reported numbers are comparable and so on.


(I am also wondering about population density and whether that is helping the US and particularly Canada. Again it may just be testing coverage though)


Originally Posted by: pfw 


Thanks for analysing the graphs; I was trying earlier to gauge the same thing visually. So, somewhere between tomorrow and Thursday (21-25 days).


As you may have read here, the daily reported deaths figures are actually not the previous day's total but include all sorts of catching-up from previous days and even weeks, so the key measure actually needs to be worked out and there's potentially quite a delay before the true position becomes clear.


 


I think the population density point has been discussed in here a few times.  As I understand it the issue is the number of large population centres and the proportion of people living in them. Canada has several large population centres such as the GTA.  I recall someone once said to me that Canada was in reality 3,000 miles wide but only about 100 miles deep.


I hope all is well in Burlington. My father is now in a care home in Hamilton, which has been under lockdown for several weeks now.


Is the QEW a much quiet road at the moment?


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


JHutch
11 April 2020 22:53:42


 


It must be some kind of natural selection trait based on success in threat management: if the neighbouring tribe is rocking up to steal your crops/cattle/slaves/land then if you sit around bickering amongst yourselves about the response the outcome is usually far worse than getting behind the tribal leader - no matter how incompetent they are.


Originally Posted by: RobN 


Yep. rallying around the flag is a well-known phenomenon. Regarding sitting around bickering, i think that most people know what the correct response is now, indeed polling evidence actually shows that the public was ahead of the government on this. Anecdotal evidence shows me that people who disagreed with the government response actually got on and changed behaviour while it was the government who sat around unsure what to do! Interestingly last week's Opinium showed that the public thought that the government had been too slow by 63-30% but still gave them a nice big net positive rating. If evidence shows that the government was too slow and this brought very adverse consequences then will the blame turn on them as we recover from covid-19 (i doubt it). Interestingly Kier Starmer got a nice big positive rating (highest by a Labour leader since before the Iraq war) as well so maybe the public are feeling generous towards most leaders/politicians at the moment.

Saint Snow
11 April 2020 22:55:41


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVWpKTwXkAg0FPD?format=jpg&name=large


Full article.


You will need to zoom in.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


More spinning the narrative that 'fighter' Boris is a national hero and treasure who has looked death in the face and won.


(No doubt to be used by the right-wing nationalists to further their anti-regulation/anti-EU cause, when eyes begin to look at the deadline again)


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
JHutch
11 April 2020 23:02:55


 


Thanks for analysing the graphs; I was trying earlier to gauge the same thing visually. So, somewhere between tomorrow and Thursday (21-25 days).


As you may have read here, the daily reported deaths figures are actually not the previous day's total but include all sorts of catching-up from previous days and even weeks, so the key measure actually needs to be worked out and there's potentially quite a delay before the true position becomes clear.


 


I think the population density point has been discussed in here a few times.  As I understand it the issue is the number of large population centres and the proportion of people living in them. Canada has several large population centres such as the GTA.  I recall someone once said to me that Canada was in reality 3,000 miles wide but only about 100 miles deep.


I hope all is well in Burlington. My father is now in a care home in Hamilton, which has been under lockdown for several weeks now.


Is the QEW a much quiet road at the moment?


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yep, most Canadians live within about 100km of the US border.


https://www.vox.com/2016/5/5/11584064/canada-population-map


FWIW, my info is that the peak in the worst affected areas is around this weekend, some of the lesser affected areas may be towards next weekend. Fingers crossed that the number of deaths does start to come down soon!

The Beast from the East
11 April 2020 23:09:45


 


 


More spinning the narrative that 'fighter' Boris is a national hero and treasure who has looked death in the face and won.


(No doubt to be used by the right-wing nationalists to further their anti-regulation/anti-EU cause, when eyes begin to look at the deadline again)


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



And the BBC constantly referring to Carrie Symonds and the baby as if its his first love and he was a virgin before he met her


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
fairweather
11 April 2020 23:21:19


 


Agree, useful graph. I find this a good site to use as it gives graphs scaled per million population and linear/log scales. That 7 day average graph gives the best signal to me that lock downs may work (or at least have worked in Italy and Spain). Back of fag packet calcs:



  • Italy - lockdown start 9th March, 7 day average starts to fall around 3rd April => 25 days to affect 7 day average

  • Spain - lockdown start 14th March, 7 day average starts to fall around 4th April => 21 days to affect 7 day average

  • UK - lockdown start 23rd March => 7 day average should start falling around 23rd March + 23 days = 14th April if the lockdown is working.


As far as I can tell Italy had its largest number of daily deaths reported on March 28th, Spain on April 3rd which (as expected) is a little before the rolling average starts to fall.


So... putting all that together if the UK is on a similar course we may see a few more days of high deaths but by the end of next week at the worst the daily count should have plateaued and started to fall. In a good scenario it may start to fall a few days earlier.


Huge number of caveats of course - that the lockdown is actually having an effect, that the reported numbers are comparable and so on.


(I am also wondering about population density and whether that is helping the US and particularly Canada. Again it may just be testing coverage though)


Originally Posted by: pfw 


Excellent post and reflects my expectations I posted earlier. I also was wondering about a correlation with population density but on looking it wasn't clear. This is probably because there are micro epicenres within regions and cities. e.g Lombardy, New York, London etc.


These are some which I found interesting all the same. In population per sq. mile.


South Korea        1339


Netherlands         1077


Belgium               974


UK                      710


Germany               603


Italy                      518     


France                  319


Spain                    241


USA                       87


Canada                  10             


S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
11 April 2020 23:24:51

Apologies for kind of repeat analysis. I missed Gandalf's above.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
pfw
  • pfw
  • Advanced Member
11 April 2020 23:48:38


I think the population density point has been discussed in here a few times.  As I understand it the issue is the number of large population centres and the proportion of people living in them. Canada has several large population centres such as the GTA.  I recall someone once said to me that Canada was in reality 3,000 miles wide but only about 100 miles deep.


I hope all is well in Burlington. My father is now in a care home in Hamilton, which has been under lockdown for several weeks now.


Is the QEW a much quiet road at the moment?


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


It's a fair point  - much of Canada isn't a great deal of use unless you are a Moose or a black fly! Agree there are huge population centers here, and no question there are big housing pressures in the GTA. However... it never feels quite as crowded as the SE of England near London. Went for a walk this evening down to the lake - probably saw 5 other groups of walkers the whole time. So it's relatively easy to stay distant from people. Queues for entering grocery stores are still relatively small. This is the suburbs though - downtown Toronto will be more of a challenge.


Best wishes to your father GtW. It's a worry with elderly relatives - I also have vulnerable relatives in the UK although luckily with family close by.


The QEW is very unused at the moment. In fact it's literally quiet - you can't hear it from our front door when usually you can hear a distant rumble (it's a couple of miles from our house). Given the usual standard of driving on the highways here, it wouldn't surprise me if this is saving lives. There's definitely a few people "hooning" in sports cars and bikes, taking advantage of the open road. So far the police appear to be taking a relaxed approach on this. Assuming there are still restrictions in place by May, the Victoria Day weekend will be the next big test. It is the traditional start of summer and a big time to really get out and about.


--
Paul.

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