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doctormog
19 November 2020 18:31:44


 


Was it wet snow? or sleety stuff? What was temp in snow shower?


Haven't heard from Richard yet...?


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


No it was proper (quite large) flakes of snow. It was only brief and was mostly dry, bright and cold today. It may be the last for a wee while based on current output.


Gooner
19 November 2020 18:34:58


 


quite. Wintry precipitation possible in the north followed by some harsh frosts on that run.


I wonder what if ECM will support any such idea.


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Indeed with the possibility of the HP moving Westwards and cold flooding South ..............dreaming of course 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Brian Gaze
19 November 2020 18:37:00


 


Was it wet snow? or sleety stuff? What was temp in snow shower?


Haven't heard from Richard yet...?


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


You can watch it here




Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gooner
19 November 2020 18:55:58



The two models still at odds very different at 192 h 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


tallyho_83
19 November 2020 19:17:08



Nice ending to GFS , pleased with the 12z run


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Overcast and mild!? Winds still coming in from west - least it isn't raining.


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


picturesareme
19 November 2020 19:17:33

It was nice (in a way) to be caught in a snow shower this morning on the way to work. The outlook seems a bit more “average” in terms of temperatures over the next couple of weeks but nothing striking one way or the other. Quite mobile overall but, as others have mentioned, hints that high pressure may hang around in our vicinity for a while. Not a strong signal though.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Crazy 😲 snow in north Scotland  and at the oposite end of the UK we had a pleasant sunny mid November day with temperatures of 13C. 

tallyho_83
19 November 2020 19:24:42

Here is the irony - La Nina winters are meant to be front loaded and it appears that the zonal winds will become exceptionally maybe record breaking strong again over the next week when this time last year as indicated by the red line on chart - we were actually going weaker than average: Look at the latest forecast for strength of zonal winds - in green? - Going off the scale there!?


It can't get  more stronger even if it tried and it's only November. I would dread to think what winter would show!?


Again - i am convinced that it's because of the colder than average temperatures in the stratosphere which is driving the PV.


No description available.


 


 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


CField
19 November 2020 19:38:27

[quote=tallyho_83;1278830]


Here is the irony - La Nina winters are meant to be front loaded and it appears that the zonal winds will become exceptionally maybe record breaking strong again over the next week when this time last year as indicated by the red line on chart - we were actually going weaker than average: Look at the latest forecast for strength of zonal winds - in green? - Going off the scale there!?


It can't get  more stronger even if it tried and it's only November. I would dread to think what winter would show!?


Again - i am convinced that it's because of the colder than average temperatures in the stratosphere which is driving the PV.


No description available.


 


 


Indeed a strengthening zonal  wind coupled with La Nina southerly high blocking could  introduce the return of the long fetch south westerly in the run up to Christmas ...the wrong type of long fetch wind direction...


Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Gooner
19 November 2020 20:45:52


 


Overcast and mild!? Winds still coming in from west - least it isn't raining.


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Look at the bigger picture 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Shropshire
20 November 2020 07:04:53

Ongoing poor output this morning, a well organised PV and +ve heights at mid latitides and over Europe - we will almost certainly entering December with a strongly +ve NAO arrangement. The early part of December was said to be the most promising period for wintry weather and the set-up could hardly be LESS promising.


From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
marco 79
20 November 2020 07:09:13
The blocks back in the far reaches on 00z...Now where have we seen that before....
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Shropshire
20 November 2020 07:34:19

Looking at the ECM monthly and it's dreadful for cold, potential for some very mild temps at times and flooding for the usual areas.


From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
doctormog
20 November 2020 07:46:02

The blocks back in the far reaches on 00z...Now where have we seen that before....

Originally Posted by: marco 79 


It will probably stay there.   


In the more “realistic” time frame things look quite mobile and “average” with some rain, some sun, some wind, some frost, some mildness, some coolness and possibly little that is too noteworthy.


Brian Gaze
20 November 2020 08:05:09

GEFS35 is still showing the potential for colder outbreaks in December. It is using yesterday's data but ECM30 also runs behind the pack I understand. 


(Select weekly charts here https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-europe.aspx)


 



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
20 November 2020 08:06:45

The glass-half-full brigade should look at http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 week2 which has cold air making a big move towards the Baltic and Scandi. Not the UK, yet ... On the parallel pptn chart the Atlantic is putting up resistance, resulting in rain for the UK, lots and lots of it in week 2.


GFS - Atlantic W-lies with LPs brushing past N Scotland to the middle of next week, after that stalling and hanging around NW of Ireland until Thu 3rd - Sun 6th when troughs start to run down from Iceland to N Germany. HP trying to develop over N Scandi, rather uncertainly, from Sun 29th. 


GEFS -temps similar to yesterday, up and down to Fri 27th after which just below norm to Sun 6th but with more variability than yesterday. More rain than yesterday too esp S & W, starting around Thu 26th and not dry spell after that.


ECM - keeps the LPs running across the N Atlantic after the middle of next week, positioning them further N than GFS and not stalling until close to Norway


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
roadrunnerajn
20 November 2020 08:19:09

Looking at both the 18z and 00z GFS both do indeed show a mobile pattern but it’s a cool mobile flow. The Scottish ski resorts should get a good base layer of wet snow above 1,500-2,000ft. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pennines saw some wet snow at times as well.


This set up as Brian eluded to in an earlier comment could well catch some out especially in the northern half of the UK.


Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
nsrobins
20 November 2020 08:25:39


Looking at the ECM monthly and it's dreadful for cold, potential for some very mild temps at times and flooding for the usual areas.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


As usual the wider picture is not so clear cut. The EC 11-15day clusters do indeed suggest a +NAO driven westerly type but there are two chunky minorities that would deliver quite cold set-ups.


http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2018/11/21/00/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018112100_360.png


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Shropshire
20 November 2020 08:43:10


Looking at both the 18z and 00z GFS both do indeed show a mobile pattern but it’s a cool mobile flow. The Scottish ski resorts should get a good base layer of wet snow above 1,500-2,000ft. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pennines saw some wet snow at times as well.


This set up as Brian eluded to in an earlier comment could well catch some out especially in the northern half of the UK.


Originally Posted by: roadrunnerajn 


The tendency is however for these set-ups to shift North closer to verification. 


From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Lionel Hutz
20 November 2020 08:58:28


The glass-half-full brigade should look at http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 week2 which has cold air making a big move towards the Baltic and Scandi. Not the UK, yet ... On the parallel pptn chart the Atlantic is putting up resistance, resulting in rain for the UK, lots and lots of it in week 2.


GFS - Atlantic W-lies with LPs brushing past N Scotland to the middle of next week, after that stalling and hanging around NW of Ireland until Thu 3rd - Sun 6th when troughs start to run down from Iceland to N Germany. HP trying to develop over N Scandi, rather uncertainly, from Sun 29th. 


GEFS -temps similar to yesterday, up and down to Fri 27th after which just below norm to Sun 6th but with more variability than yesterday. More rain than yesterday too esp S & W, starting around Thu 26th and not dry spell after that.


ECM - keeps the LPs running across the N Atlantic after the middle of next week, positioning them further N than GFS and not stalling until close to Norway


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Then again, the glass half empty brigade will note that temperatures remain above normal over most of Europe and substantially so over Northern Europe. Still early days, of course and open to change as always. And a definite cooling trend in week 2 which has been reasonably consistent on the wxmaps page.


 


Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



dagspot
20 November 2020 09:16:56
cant be any worse than this weeks ‘potent northerly’ which was a half-day affair (if that) and on the wrong day !
Neilston 600ft ASL
ballamar
20 November 2020 10:15:23
Still signs of an anomaly in the pressure to the north in 6/7 days time - something to cling a bit of hope to instead of the likely zonal outlook
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
20 November 2020 11:27:02

Lots of sine waves on the GEFS 850HPa outlook today. Points to zonal and westerly dominated set ups, alternating between mild (very mild at times) and cool.  


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
doctormog
20 November 2020 11:55:32


Lots of sine waves on the GEFS 850HPa outlook today. Points to zonal and westerly dominated set ups, alternating between mild (very mild at times) and cool.  


Originally Posted by: GezM 


To be honest I am not seeing many signs of very mild or very cold weather in the GEFS (or any other data) at the moment. Cool at times, mild at others. Possibly quite average overall but largely mobile (and westerly in the realistic timeframe).


Russwirral
20 November 2020 12:01:37
a week or so ago this weekend looked potentially wintry... that was pushed back to maybe next week.

The reality is we look like being stuck in a barrage of west to south westerly winds of differing amplitude. interspersed by the occasional cool north westerly... No real prolonged dry spells in site, nor much frost likely either.

Not a great end to Autumn with all that was talked about.

Looks like wet ground and grey sky weather for the forseable...
JACKO4EVER
20 November 2020 12:29:08

a week or so ago this weekend looked potentially wintry... that was pushed back to maybe next week.

The reality is we look like being stuck in a barrage of west to south westerly winds of differing amplitude. interspersed by the occasional cool north westerly... No real prolonged dry spells in site, nor much frost likely either.

Not a great end to Autumn with all that was talked about.

Looks like wet ground and grey sky weather for the forseable...

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


yes though we have managed to record two frosts this Autumn. Quite a grim outlook sadly, nothing of note yet though to be fair it’s not winter proper for a couple of weeks 

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