It is. The para goes for more of a traditional Scandi high, direct Easterly set up.

The overall trend in this morning's runs is still very good for cold and it's getting closer to d day. The 6z op is a truly stunning run and if anything like that set up verifies, there is no quick breakdown occurring that's for sure.

Fascinating stuff.

Even leaving aside the snow options, I think the south could be very wet again

GEFS really a lot colder in the longer term than the 00Z.

The Parallel goes for mega southerlies though, in the longer term.

I would wager that's the coldest mean since Late February 2018.

You notice the 06z run are just matching what we had a last proper cold snowy spell in Feb 1991 so next month will be 30 years and hope that will end the 30 years drought.  Past snow events all failed after doing quality checks. Requirements to pass is having several days of subzero maxes (6x in Feb 1991) below -10C over nights, lot of snow and final deep cold over night temps under clear skies.

Once again I really hope the 30 years drought to end exactly the same dates in early Feb.

arent they SE off a cold continent? Sorry if not seen later in the run

Yes that what I thought  - so this cold weather/blocking we see from 5th/6th February is a result of the SSW which occurred earlier in January? What I thought. Also I heard about the MJO was on the move - i didn't know what I meant at first but looked it up and apparently that is another reason why we are seeing increasingly blocked models. - More runs needed however...

Yes para goes for balmy southerly's but control and operational go cold and stay cold. Just get's frustrating that the closer we get to the more reliable time frame the more uncertainty there seems to be when it should be the opposite. Nice to see the ENS trend colder in FI on the 06z run. All eyes on this evenings ECM.

Quite finely balanced, cold at first then gets up to double figures in the south for a while, then veers colder again at the surface.

The control run, by contrast, is a monster throughout, with near constant deep cold: easterly to NEly and back to easterly.

06Z Op is a little bit of an outlier come FI but at least the ENS have trended colder along with control and we have plenty of sub -10c uppers from 6th Feb - all eyes on this evenings ECM:

Para looks good at +216z:

Cold uppers of -10c widely-(-12c in NE) and enough wind to bring snow flurries in from the east if this came off - Gusty could be in the firing line here? - However, far SE looks like the mildest part and origins of the air come from EAST/SE Europe not NE.

I had the same thought. Remember February 1991 very well - I was in my final year at Reading University..

When that mean gets below -7 I’m in. You can however see how things can go wrong but I’d rather see that at 7 days than 4 days. The majority of the +ve 850 runs need to drop into the very cold pack by 4 days out to boost confidence.

The Kettley video is on standbye 😉

Kettley? I can only dream of Feb 2001! 

With the full ensemble suite now out, the -10 count for here was up to 29 (the highest I have seen it since I have looked at that measure).

Yes, because I think you will need that for Jersey to get in on the act .Normally the Continental influence would help you but probably not this time.

Why, it will pull the cold air right across the Country. Don't think it would jeopadise your chances.

It is easy to see the mean drop to -7C as there is a distinct cold cluster, the mean being dragged up by a few spurious mild runs that should drop into place in the next couple ofdays. However I agree, there is plenty of scope for it to go wrong for the South, who are more likely to be adversely affected by any slight northward drift of the LP over France.

Pretty decent set of GEFS in terms of prolonging the cold. Being picky I would like to see some slightly colder air.

P5 is pretty decent, giving subzero temperatures for five days on the trot in this location.

Still a huge amount of uncertainty in the short term: the spread of maximum 2m temperatures for Monday, i.e. just 72 hours away now, in my location ranges from 1.2C to 10.6C!

I agree, and it's my fear for the South, that it corrects further North over each run. Until it becomes a Midlands North affair, and we're left chasing rainbows at t+300 in the South. Hopfully I'm wrong (usually am).

Extensive blocking week 8th :15 th Feb on ecm Thursdays extended run

continued blocking 15th -22nd Feb at Iceland and Grenny and a little weaker over scadi

Blimey just checked the 06z and it’s ensembles.
Is the cat among the pigeons yet?
Expect some gradual murmurings in the media broadcasts if things continue this way over the weekend.

Re Polar Low’s post above, sounds like classic retrogression akin to some of the coldest UK winters is being shown on EC extended 

Want to be a bit closer to the baroclinic zone for more snow

I should know better shouldn't I , it's the consistency of the ECM ensembles that caught my eye. I agree with you on the one more cold spell then mild as long as the cold spell lasts 6 weeks.