one of the interesting facts I came across a little while ago

34C has been recorded in the UK during seven out of the last 10 years, compared to seven out of the previous 50 years from 1961 to 2010. This suggests that temperatures of 34C or higher occurring at some point during the summer are becoming a more common occurrence.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/met-office-the-uks-august-2020-heatwave

That's a incredible stat.  It's been fun chasing heatwaves here recently certainly easier than chasing snow. But as ever with the UK climate its unpredictable and this summer could be anything from scorching to a complete dud. 

GFS 00z op seems to take a colder route in FI with height rises to the north, although nothing really close to a repeat of last week. IIRC there was one GFS op run yesterday which showed something similar.

I have no basis for this other than gut feeling, but while the next 10 days or so are looking much milder than recently, I get the feeling that we may not yet have seen the back of the cold just yet as far as the coming few weeks are concerned.

Indeed. In fact 2020 was the 3rd consecutive year that a temperature of 35C or higher has been recorded in the UK. This has never happened before. It shows how much our climate is changing, and how easy it is now for anomalous warmth/heat to build quickly.

According to the 6z GFS op, there seems to be a window of opportunity to get out of our SW flow in about 10 days time judging by the jet charts. Whether the OP manages it from here or not I'd imagine a few of the ens will toy with a colder solution.

I had to check that for July 1983 but you are correct. That hot month was consistent but didn't breach 33'c. 

The interesting thing was that I have no recollection of any unusually hot weather being reported anywhere in continental Europe in late July/early August last year when some areas of the UK had the hot spell. When the previous hottest UK temperature record was set in 2003, Europe was in the grip of a major heatwave. Late in the summer of 2018 (IIRC) Spain and Portugal had a spell which saw temperatures reaching the high forties which came close to breaking their all-time records. Yet I have no memory of unusually hot conditions being reported anywhere in Europe either last summer or the previous one.

One thing that could be, and likely is, changing is the behaviour of the jet stream. It has more influence on the British climate that virtually anything else.

To my eye it’s a matter of when rather than if. Could be a northerly or easterly and is likely to be in place by the turn of the month. Perhaps sooner. 

There were heatwaves in Europe last summer.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/met-office-the-uks-august-2020-heatwave

I wonder if part of the problem is that heatwaves in mainland Europe are becoming so common that they're no longer headline news? 

Edit: just noticed that PL posted the same link earlier. 🙂

34C certainly has been unusual: it only happened 17 years in the whole 20th century, so one year in six on average. 

In the 21st century so far it has happened nine years out of 20, so almost half. 

Looking at the last decade (2011-2020) it has happened in seven out of 10 years. 

And looking at the last five years it has been reached every every single year, 2016-2020!

The temperature chart for 31st July 2020 at 1600 UTC clearly shows very high temperatures over France that are being imported into the UK resulting in temperatures at Heathrow to climb over 36C:

http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/temperatures.php?archive=1&region=&mode=&jour=31&mois=7&annee=2020&heure=16&mode=&sub=OK

It's a similar story for August 7th, with even more extreme temperatures over France by then:
http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/temperatures.php?archive=1&region=&mode=&jour=7&mois=8&annee=2020&heure=16&mode=&sub=OK

I'm guessing that's 17 times as the daily max but then how many more day's that exceed that 🤔  It's probably a safe assumption at least 8 days.. If so then we could say 34C or higher is a 1/4 year event att the very least.

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo  

I wouldn't get too upset about charts at 336 hours, Marcus.

Nevertheless.  

My response is Yes!

Im still hunting down cold til the end of winter.

March 23rd

Feb 28th as per the Met Office, we're not American (or on an astronomy forum).

That said, I'd be up for cold, no matter how fleeting, any time of year. We had sleet in May back in the 90s and I'd be more than happy for a repeat, no matter how unlikely.

I do wonder whether we will get a third "echo" easterly though. We had that thoroughly miserable one in January (which dumped two inches of cold rain), this one (which gave around an inch of rain equivalent here)... and knowing how patterns repeat, I wouldn't be at all surprised if there was one in say early to mid March. Especially as I suspect that third reversal is yet to fully show its effects on the troposphere...

Nothing wrong with that chart 336z away which will not verify - Also - it is STILL winter after all. 

[quote=nsrobins;1319554]There is a bit of traction long term for HLB again and my preference would be a good old fashioned Northerly. Only a remote chance but after a virtually snow-free winter here I’d take anything.[/quote

indeed but I fear you may remain snow free in Portsmouth in a Northerly ! ]

Yes one like 2020 would be nice but  that may be wishful thinking!

Indeed! Here’s hoping though.

Next weekend looks lovely down here. 

Temps troubling 70F. Won’t quite make that but might not be too far away.

Had plenty of snow and ice.

ROLL ON SPRING.

In fairness, winter runs 21 Dec to 21 Mar - it is set by the cosmos not a bloke in a beige tie in the Civil Service.

However, this year it’s all irrelevant as we are going to get an early spring, after a winter to remember!

70F possible this coming weekend. A far cry from the snow and ice of recent times.