I was thinking that some of the charts look very similar to 2010. We can but dream. 

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No that is simply not the case. Stop digging.

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ECMWF 14-day ensemble weather forecast for Royal Tunbridge Wells | Weather.us

ECM Op for down here suggesting not far from ice days by the end of the run, which would be a bit chilly

Generally all signals pointing towards chilly or cold weather although a lot will depend on how far North the HP sets up, although with the Atlantic looking quiet not looking like a toppler happily with plenty of opportunity for reloads

 

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My memory of November 2010 prior to the onset of the freeze was that it was generally a fairly quiet month. Never particularly cold until late in the month and fairly dry. Certainly much drier here than the preceding November was.

What I recall of the model output in the lead-up to the freeze was that the MetO updates had been signalling for a good week or so about the possibility of the major cold spell for some time before the operational model runs that we can access here began to pick up on it. Before the freeze the previous winter, it was the other way round with the model output picking up on the start of the build-up to the freeze for some time before the MetO updates first began to mention it.

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Still remember driving home in total white out conditions on that late friday afternoon in November 2010. Came out of the blue and didn't stop. Surreal period of weather. 

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That’s along the lines of my recollection too; Met office very bullish on the potential for a severe cold spell at least a couple of weeks before November ended. At the same time the models weren’t sniffing anything. 

The less said about November 2009 the better. Non stop heavy rain down here for what felt like the whole month. 

Exactly what I was thinking!

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Completely different set up to 2010. 2010 had the blocking anchored initially towards Scandi and then migrated towards Greenland. That's how some of the real classic winters shape up.

This is different, it comes courtesy of an amplified wave which crosses the Pacific and breaks in the Atlantic. 

Notice how the HP is losing latitude as the time gets nearer? In the nearer timeframes the GFS is now showing it as pretty much mid latitude territory-

If this trend continues, things can go south very quickly.

On another note, we have 0 strat support for longevity of any wintry pattern. Once strat and trop connect (which could happen any time) we're staring down the barrel of a +NAO.

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www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_228_1.png
Snapshot of the op but next Saturday could be lively!

 

ECM ramps up the low as well - not a nice day for walking and the first proper leaf fall!

Northerly on the way with a corresponding big drop in temperature.

GFS mean (850's) - 180hrs

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=168&code=31&mode=1&carte=0

500's mean - 180 hrs

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=168&code=31&mode=0&carte=0

Snow on the way for parts of the north and Scotland.

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Wx summary; week 1 sees most of Europe slightly above average temps but colder air is rolling across the N - week 2 shows some of this working into C Europe as well. Patches outside Scandi  with isotherm below 0C include Alps, Pyrenees and Scoyland, and some exceptionally cold weather in N Norway. PPtn in far N and W Med week 1 shifts to  a broad band down the W side of Europe and through the Med generally

Jet - running N of UK, sometimes as a loop, to Wed 24th, then switching to a loop S of the UK through to Sat 4th, albeit sometimes fractured

GFS op - HP still covering S of UK with W/SW-lies to Sat 20th, moving a little W to allow a first N-ly flow Sun 21st. The HP recovers briefly then retreats allowing stronger N-lies through to Sat 4th. notably v. cold under LP Sat 27th 955mb E Scotland with hurricane force for W Scotland. Although that fills if leaves small Lp centres embedded in the generally N'ly outlook e.g. 985mb N Ireland Thu 4th, moving to N Sea 975mb.

GEFS - temp drops off a cliff Sun 21st to below norm then a further drop Thu 25th to about 6C below norm (and staying there in the S - the N is colder at first but eases up a little later on) with quite good agreement between all runs  until Wed 1st after which most runs still continue cold. PPtn begins in earnest Thu 25th, but less than shown yesterday. Significant but not overwhelming snow row figures everywhere - even Brighton manages one '10'.

ECM - similar to GFS but places that LP on Sat 27th further E 965 mb N Sea as part of a trough stretching back to Norway, and the strongest winds down the E coast- watch out for high tides on Sun 28th!

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It’s encouraging to see those EC anomaly clusters from a week ago for wk48 showing a mid latitude Atlantic high and troughing in W Europe look like being close to the mark. The outlook remains a trend to colder unsettled conditions towards the end of Nov.
The EC mean to 240hrs is especially impressive, as is the GFS ENS mean this morning. A repeat of 2010? Unlikely. A seasonal cold outlook with the threat of wintry ppn? Most likely.

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For me, one thing which the current output for next week (and possibly beyond) proves is just how quickly in this country a pattern which has been seemingly locked in for a while can change and sometimes without a great deal of warning beforehand. The change hasn't yet happened of course, but barring some unbelievably sudden volte face now, it looks as though temperatures will take something of a dive next week compared to presently and indeed for much of the autumn.

The one thing I learned very quickly about the models when I first began following them on a regular basis way back in 2005 was that sometimes, they can be just as unpredicatable as the weather itself often is in this country. I mentioned late 2009 recently. As I said then, if someone had said to me during the very wet and mild November that year that a month or so later, the coldest spell of weather in around 30 years would be coming, I doubt I would have believed them.

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I think those living along the East Coast may need to be concerned about Spring tidal surges if the latest round of outputs are to go by on. Here's hoping that it ends up being less of a worry come the moment.

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for the east coast I can imagine they will hope it retains the NW element, a straight Northerly or NNE wi. Of that strength with a high tide would spell disaster 

 

The difference a a couple of hundred miles makes.  Most of our leaves have fallen around here.  Only a few oak trees remain around here.

 

Has been orange floors for about 2 weeks in lovely dry weather.  Stunning actually.

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I've never seen the leaves on my Norway Maple so vivid - they almost glow. About two-thirds now lying on my lawn and in need of clearing up, though (). The birches, elder and smaller Japanese maple are similarly down to about a third left. The whitebeam is virtually leafless, as is the larger Japanese Maple. The 'corkscrew' hazel, on the other hand, has all its leaves and half of those are fully green still. 

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A set of 'back to the 70s' charts. We lived in Manchester around that time and you could absolutely count on the Snake Pass being blocked by snow in the last week of November

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I think they may be lucky in that  around the 27th is just after the neap tides, not the highest of springs.

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The Arctic high looks to be an interesting feature on the latter part of GFS

Consistency starting to build around end of next week. Seems alot of precipitation about, the hills will do well. Will be a guessing game for lower levels though.

Everyone in with a chance of seeing some snow I reckon. But Id say significant falls (and with continual volume so it seems) restricted to higher areas at this stage,

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Looks like a cold spell of some sort is increasingly likely but as others have said it is all a bit flabby and mid-Atlantic based rather than being convincing northern blocking as was hinted at in some of the GFS's wilder moments recently. GEM for instance definitely has the air of a toppler about it.

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Yep - a cool down then cold but still a week away. Trend is good on the ensembles though

The longer term pattern looks very well signalled with an anomalous NNW'ly flow. A spell of weather varying between cool WNW'lies and cold NNE'lies. The position of the mid Atlantic block will be the main player in determining how the specifics play out. If its too far west then we bring milder SW'lies into the mix, if its too far east it will be largely settled with night frosts and generally pleasant conditions. Based on the current output (and yes it is still a little way off) you would have to be confident of a wintry spell of weather particularly for the NE and Scotland with transitory wintriness further south at times too.

Interesting times ahead !  

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Its quite an impressive cold spell for November. Not a patch on 2010 of course, but probably cold enough for some rare Autumn snow for some parts of England at times.

 

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