You can see the split nicely on the GEFS . The 24th seems the day we either go decent spell or Scorchio again.

Not wishing to sound too nationalistic, but south west Wales has an equally spectacular coastline.  I live on the edge of Gower which includes Three Cliffs Bay and Rhossili and the latter was voted the third best in the world in 2014!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-south-west-wales-26625340

We can’t help it if we live in the tiny, isolated, extreme westerly, low-population conurbations of Liverpool and Manchester. Surely only about 0.5% of the population must live around here! 

25C to 30C fine by me as long as it sunny and keep Indoors very warm inside.  Notice the posters from NW site who all live in Nw seem to hate warm settled  weather and wanting cold Autumn now even MVH who rather want than predicted l this month cool and unsettled but failed so far. Tomorrow  they upped to 25C in Nuneaton so a bit of changes in short term and phantom rain on Sunday risk are dropping as well so likely to be cancel out hopefully. 

ECM op is a hot outlier but not without support and shows a rapid return to the heatwave

Others are much slower. Hard to say what UKMO would do later in the run, shame we cant see 

ECM ensembles look very warm to hot again.

[quote=Rob K;1467988]GFS 6Z looking very high pressure dominated. A slight westward migration of the high centre means somewhat cooler upper air filtering down but I think it would still be very warm and summery for many.[/quote

Will look forward to it after todays deluge  40mm in last 4 hours local flooding]

JMA going for a wet Sunday /Monday. Has been pretty accurate recently on the breakdown to rain.

Its still very settled out to 300 odd. Ensembles look like high pressure will be in charge it's just a matter of how hot.

ECM looking hot again

Yes, the chances of some very warm weather returning next week on the models tonight. GFS looking very warm next week as well. Summer still refuses to give up.

The only difference is this time it looks to more be the high 20s, rather than 30s heat. No complaints from me!

Theres a campaign group cancelling their direct debits. Risky but could be the only way to force companies to stop being so greedy. 
Thousands of elderly will die this winter scared of turning their heating on. 
We should all pray for a mild one. 

Absolutely agree. I was just comparing English coasts - I absolutely love Pembrokeshire but have sadly never visited the Gower. 

Suits me mate. 20°C+ days could last until November as far as I'm concerned. I'm hoping for a warm autumn and mild winter to try and help alleviate a lot of those problems. Ideally a mild but sunny winter where dampness isn't too much of an issue would work out best.

My annual gas and electricity estimate has gone up from just over £2,000 to £7,000 in the latest rate change - and this is pre October price cap rise. They are now deducting around £550 per month in direct debit. Granted I have an oldish, largeish house with poor insulation (no cavity wall, conservation area so generally single glazed) but it’s not that large and the insulation isn’t that bad. 

By contrast my bills at our French house have barely moved. Because they get most of their energy from nuclear. France is completely sitting pretty. Anyway, OT but worth saying. 

The only way you'll get non-damp weather in winter is with a crisp, cold HP with a N'ly or E'ly source (lower DPs). Anything else will bring moisture.

Even if it's 14C and dry you'll still need heating because of the increased RH %

Arguably the worst thing that can happen is a heat stripping strong wind because even at 12C, a strong wind will remove heat quickly from badly insulated houses.

I'd enjoy a cold winter for once, but I'm not holding my breath. An 80s/90s style easterly is as rare as hen's teeth, the 2018 "Beast" being a stunted reminder of what we once had. That said, if it does snow I'll enjoy it without feeling guilty, as thankfully our personal preferences have no bearing on what actually transpires.

Talking of which, GFS is ramping up the heat here again next week, back into the 30s on the 12z and 18z runs. I'm keeping an eye on Thursday, as I'll be home with no power all day (they're replacing the power poles along the whole road and we all have to take a day off work to be there when they turn the power off and on again). 30C+, strong sunshine and not even a fan isn't something I'd be looking forward to.

Hubby and I were noting more than average berries on trees and hedgerows and hoping it’s not a sign of a hard winter to come. Sod’s law it will be as the build of our granny annex starts in November.  We’ve planned for air source heat pump and solar with battery storage to keep our heating bills down.  But probably won’t benefit this winter, depending on how long the build takes, which depends on good weather. 

You are right about that, Caz - we've noted this too - and had our first home-made apple tart this week. Sadly, fruiting is a better indicator of past good pollination weather and a reasonable growing season than a frightful winter ahead. But one lives in hope!

Back to the westerlies for a while at least, though the forecast of significant rain for the south from Sunday/Monday's fronts seems to be weakening according to the MetO.

WX summary for further ahead keeps continental Europe warm for the next 2 weeks, piling the warmest weather for the next two weeks up into the southern Baltic and down to the Black Sea which is really hot, while Atlantic coasts all the way down to Spain are marginally cooler and N Russia is quite cold. Rain quite widely distributed over W Europe exc Spain in week 1; in week 2 wet over England and France, dry over NW Scotland  and separately over Poland.

FAX shows LP coming and going to the NW with a collection of fronts crossing Britain, often trailing back into the Atlantic before affecting areas quite far S.

GFS Op agrees this pattern with FAX until about Thu 25th when a ridge of pressure develops across Scotland and LP moves up from France, the latter centred 1010mb E Anglia Sat 27th. That set-up remains for the week but with less well defined pressure gradients until Fri 2nd when shallow LP appears off Brittany. The lack of strong steering pressure gradients in week 2 makes it a toss-up as to whether England in particular imports warmth from France or temperate from Atlantic; Scotland should do well in the sunshine.

GEFS from cool this weekend to rather warm around Thu 25th in the S with good agreement between ens members, but Scotland near norm with less good agreement, after which mean declines towards norm with lots of variation. Small amounts of rain sporadically, perhaps rather more in the W at first.

ECM keeps pressure slack over Britain after Thu 25th with a N-S trough up the whole of the E Coast on Sat 27th, after which pressure begins to rise over Scotland

Agreed and this morning look like keep warm between low 20s to 30C anytime as pressure rise quickly after this weekend as it stretched from SW to NE that will bring lot of dry sunny days type. Rain will never welcome and stay away the better is.

Off topic but that is not the solution. Direct debits go to the retail suppliers. and they are not the ones profiteering (in fact many of them have gone bust because they have been forced to sell energy below cost price for so long). It's the wholesalers that are making profits.

Back on topic, and things are looking a bit less HP dominated as we end August. ECM has quite a chilly airmass by the end. GFS warmer but unsettled especially in the south.