theweatheroutlook

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overland
28 November 2022 09:56:16
Noticed that whatever combination of model data that the BBC/Meteo Group atomated forecasts use is suggesting sleet/snow showers from the 10 December. I appreciate that these are not the best forecasting tool, but interesting to see none the less.

EG https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/sa3 
Mumbles, Swansea. 80m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
28 November 2022 10:23:03

Noticed that whatever combination of model data that the BBC/Meteo Group atomated forecasts use is suggesting sleet/snow showers from the 10 December. I appreciate that these are not the best forecasting tool, but interesting to see none the less.

EG https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/sa3 

Originally Posted by: overland 



Pretty sure they use ECM ensembles data.
My area now has a single snowflake for that time also.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.bbc.com/weather/cm23&ved=2ahUKEwiN_rvr09D7AhUGV8AKHeH6B8QQFnoECBkQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1E-_Ob8mVivFwsMPfnoCpS 


 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Whiteout
28 November 2022 10:51:57
Short term pain for long term gain:

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=1 
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
+1
Rob K
28 November 2022 10:55:06
Certainly a decent cold pool to the east on the 6Z GFS. Milder air getting in the mix for us southerners but the setup looks decent. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Heavy Weather 2013
28 November 2022 10:57:32

Certainly a decent cold pool to the east on the 6Z GFS. Milder air getting in the mix for us southerners but the setup looks decent. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



My hope is that can trend just a bit further south, after the easterly push this weekend we seem to get this milder gunk for a few days from the SE - maybe that's a consequence of a better pattern late next week.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
nsrobins
28 November 2022 11:04:53

Short term pain for long term gain:

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=1 

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 



Indeed. The GFS 06Z soon to be retired has delivered something rarely seen (only in virtual space, and a few times in reality) - a proper easterly freeze-up.  -14 uppers knocking on the east coast. Save it because it won't be there on the next run - or will it? 😉
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Saint Snow
28 November 2022 11:06:51

Certainly a decent cold pool to the east on the 6Z GFS. Milder air getting in the mix for us southerners but the setup looks decent. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Aye, as many sage heads have always said over the years: get the general pattern in place, then look at the detail.

It's a very rare spell that benefits all of the country. Many is the time this region has been left holding the dirty end of the stick (but others we've been swaddled in snow when others haven't)

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Rob K
28 November 2022 11:19:13
Parallel (which takes over tomorrow) is less cold but actually snowier for most of the country with an attack from the northeast. Milder air then spreads in from the south but we will gloss over that. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gandalf The White
28 November 2022 11:39:21

Indeed. The GFS 06Z soon to be retired has delivered something rarely seen (only in virtual space, and a few times in reality) - a proper easterly freeze-up.  -14 uppers knocking on the east coast. Save it because it won't be there on the next run - or will it? 😉

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Well, I can guarantee that it won't be there tomorrow because that Op is being retired tonight... 😉

Lots of tantalising output in recent days but also plenty of reminders of just how many pieces need to fall into place to advect cold air to our vicinity.  Whilst the building blocks look encouraging, there is a reason why really cold spells are both elusive and memorable.

To get a decent Arctic easterly feed requires the pattern to remain in place for several days, just to advect the air mass the minimum 1,000 miles westwards that's required.  Northerlies are not quite so difficult but it still takes time.

To be honest, I'm still torn about a very cold spell, given the energy situation.  Ideally a cold spell here which spared much of Ukraine would be nice; along with -30c maxima for the area occupied by Russian troops.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


White Meadows
28 November 2022 11:57:36
Met office 1/3 month update just out...

cold December now even more likely, the. Tapering off perhaps for Jan & Feb:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-djf-v1.pdf 

 
nsrobins
28 November 2022 12:00:26

Well, I can guarantee that it won't be there tomorrow because that Op is being retired tonight... 😉

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


The OP is dead - long live the OP!
I appreciate the small improvements in code that have been applied to the GFS high-res run but in reality it will still be the slave of chaos and the scenarios are as likely (or not as likely) to occur in the new model as in the old.
I for one though and looking forward to having just the one run again.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
johncs2016
28 November 2022 12:43:12

The OP is dead - long live the OP!
I appreciate the small improvements in code that have been applied to the GFS high-res run but in reality it will still be the slave of chaos and the scenarios are as likely (or not as likely) to occur in the new model as in the old.
I for one though and looking forward to having just the one run again.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


All that will happen though is that the OP will just become the control run (presumably with the old control run then becoming just another one of the GFS ensembles), so it won't actually be retiring altogether, and won't be completely dead (it will just cease to be the main OP run).
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Zubzero
28 November 2022 12:59:04
Don't think it works like that John my memory's poor but I think the control run is run with different starting data.  Might be at a different resolution to. The rest of the ens are run at a lower resolution with the same data as the operational. They don't replace one another like you suggest 🙂.
Brian Gaze
28 November 2022 13:23:18
.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Bow Echo
28 November 2022 14:49:31
Hi Brian,
Is it just me or have we got the "timeago" class set to Am/PM? If its possible can it be set to 24hr format, if everyone else agrees? Dont know about others but 24hr setting is easier to follow.
 
Steve D. FRMetS
Burton Latimer, Kettering, Northants


+2
Russwirral
28 November 2022 15:15:09
Its rare to see a chart max out its lower end of annomally temps

https://www.wxcharts.com/charts/gfs/europe/charts/2mtemp_anom_20221128_06_336.jpg?  

Belarus almost 30*C below normal.

This kinda chart is up there with the ones posted early July this year.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Brian Gaze
28 November 2022 15:41:04
GFS 06z was not without interest, but my main reason for posting is to test performance and image embed functionality.
UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
nsrobins
28 November 2022 15:52:28
I like the the change to a 24hr clock.

ICON still going for a monster Greenland block with the promise of Nivana from the northeast post 180.

The slow burner it might be, but it could very well be worth the wait.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Saint Snow
28 November 2022 16:06:29

I like the the change to a 24hr clock.

ICON still going for a monster Greenland block with the promise of Nivana from the northeast post 180.

The slow burner it might be, but it could very well be worth the wait.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 




I'd rather wait for it for another 2/3 weeks to get the festive weather in the immediate lead-up to and over Xmas, than have a cold spell earlier in december before a return to milder gunk before Xmas

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
28 November 2022 16:13:57
https://im2.ezgif.com/tmp/ezgif-2-d944a2db7e.gif I do love the retrogression of that cold low on the 0z ECM.

A very rare thing and, although the air isn't that cold, I think it would definitly be a rain->snow even for a lot of the UK.

UserPostedImage 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gooner
28 November 2022 17:01:53

  https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022112812/gfsnh-0-312.png?12 

 Going to be interesting viewing the next few days 
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


David M Porter
28 November 2022 17:05:12

I'd rather wait for it for another 2/3 weeks to get the festive weather in the immediate lead-up to and over Xmas, than have a cold spell earlier in december before a return to milder gunk before Xmas

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Agreed, Saint.

The weather leading up to Xmas 2009 was perfect for me, and the snow came at just the right time (1 week before Xmas) rather than a full month before it as happened the following year. Some people have noted some similarities between the current model output for the next week or so, and for the synoptics we had during early to mid-December in 2009; I can see where they are coming from.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gooner
28 November 2022 17:05:27
Whiteout
28 November 2022 17:12:50
Ahem Neil, channel low alert lol, and two in a row 😁
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
+1
nsrobins
28 November 2022 17:16:57

Ahem Neil, channel low alert lol, and two in a row 😁

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 



That's the about to be retired OP - going out in style!
More runs needed? 😂
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO

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