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Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
08 December 2022 12:19:10
Thought this thread was probably overdue. As I've said before, I think the low temperatures could turn out to be more exceptional than any snow. The synoptics for some ultra low temps are about as good as they can possibly get. I also think it helps that we are so close to the winter solsdist and will have snowcover in Scotland.

Double digits should be easy as will ice days. So when do we reckon we will see the first -20C by night and first double digit maxima by day (if at all)?
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Rob K
08 December 2022 13:20:50
Nothing very low last night, certainly not as low as some of the models suggested.

-7.3 at Pershore and -7.2C at Benson are the lowest I have seen from low-level sites last night up to 6am.

Benson actually dropped to -8.2C later in the morning, and Pershore to -7.7C.

Northern England and southern Scotland seems to be the cold spot today with Warcop Range currently -2.6C at 1pm.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
johncs2016
08 December 2022 13:23:53

Thought this thread was probably overdue. As I've said before, I think the low temperatures could turn out to be more exceptional than any snow. The synoptics for some ultra low temps are about as good as they can possibly get. I also think it helps that we are so close to the winter solsdist and will have snowcover in Scotland.

Double digits should be easy as will ice days. So when do we reckon we will see the first -20C by night and first double digit maxima by day (if at all)?
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



If only getting an ice day was as easy as you make it out to be.

It should be borne in mind here after all, that an official ice day has not been recorded at Edinburgh Gogarbank since 1 March 2018 which was at the peak of the Beast from the East event that was going on then (when we were under what is still, our only red warning to date for snow).

In addition to that, we are not going to get an ice day here today either as the temperature at Edinburgh Gogarbank had already jumped up to +2.8°C as at 1pm GMT (13:00 UTC) this afternoon.

So far this winter, we haven't even been able to get a daytime maximum temperature of 5°C or less, let alone one which is actually below freezing.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
picturesareme
08 December 2022 13:24:50
-8.9C in shap last night. 
Rob K
08 December 2022 13:29:18
UKV seemed fairly accurate for this morning. It doesn't produce notably low temperatures until the weekend, with minus teens from Sunday morning onwards in the Highlands.

 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
08 December 2022 14:02:46
I do agree the weekend will really herald in the low temps. By then the ice days should become widespread.
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Rob K
08 December 2022 14:08:12

-8.9C in shap last night. 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Missed that one,. Must have been quite late on in the morning as the minimum to 6am was -7.2C. Lowest hourly reading was -8.5C at 8am.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
08 December 2022 14:14:12
UserPostedImage
Widely 0-2C tommorow according to AROME.
Ice days more likely in central and western areas.
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
08 December 2022 14:17:34
Nightime cold also really gets going by saturday night.
UserPostedImage
-21C in the highlands according to the 6Z UKMO
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Surrey John
08 December 2022 15:27:22
-5.1c here in West Wiltshire today at 08:30

However in shady areas, frost has stayed on ground and roofs all day, and not likely to go now as sun now too low and temperatures rapidly falling again  (currently 1.9c)

First all day visible ground frost of season.
Bradford on Avon, Wiltshire
35m ASL
Bolty
08 December 2022 15:45:47
Today so far: the low was -2.5°C this morning, with a high of 1.2°C. It's aleady back below freezing now and the Sun hasn't even properly set yet.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Viking3
08 December 2022 15:46:15

Nightime cold also really gets going by saturday night.
UserPostedImage
-21C in the highlands according to the 6Z UKMO

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



There was some discussion about this model (UK Global model) in the Model Output Thread. Michael posted a chart valid for 0400 this morning predicting -15C in the NW Highlands. Actual minima from weather stations in the area were about -3 or -4 which is close to what the UKV predicted. The model didn't really pick up on the real "cold spot" which was the Southern Upands to Cumbria where -8 to -10 was recorded (coldest was -9.9C at Leadhills according to Lee - Highlandweather.)

UKV comes onboard with these low temperatures from Saturday night / Sunday morning onwards with something like -16 to -18 each of Sat/Sun, Sun/Mon and Mon/Tue somewhere in the Central Highland or NW Highlands. As ever it will all depend on the gradient wind and cloud cover - all of these areas will have sufficient snow cover and low daytime insolation to allow the cold pools to develop in the glens.

A fascinating week ahead!

 
Keith
Aboyne, Aberdeenshire
135m asl
Essan
08 December 2022 15:52:45
Overnight min -6.3.  

Only got above freezing for 2 hours in my garden (max +1.5c) - very unusual when there's no snow cover or fog.   Already back down to -2.5c (and falling) at 15.50
Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Rob K
08 December 2022 15:52:59
It dropped to -4C last night here and there is still thick white frost on the lawn. The sun sets in a couple of minutes and the temperature will soon plunge I reckon.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Mildly Disappointed
08 December 2022 16:26:22
Afternoon all, another new joiner who has been lurking for far too long. Was between -6 and -7 here when I took the hound outside this morning, according to the thermometer on the shed (not trying to compete with Jiries)
I am located about a mile from the aerodrome where the readings for Redhill were once sourced so we do sometimes record low minima here
Jason
Salfords, Surrey
 
Jason
Salfords, Surrey
+1
bledur
08 December 2022 18:48:48
-7c at Hurn this morning which is quite an impressive minima for the first real frost of the season and the south coast location.
Jiries
08 December 2022 21:27:33

Afternoon all, another new joiner who has been lurking for far too long. Was between -6 and -7 here when I took the hound outside this morning, according to the thermometer on the shed (not trying to compete with Jiries)
I am located about a mile from the aerodrome where the readings for Redhill were once sourced so we do sometimes record low minima here
Jason
Salfords, Surrey
 

Originally Posted by: Mildly Disappointed 



I used to live in West Ewell 35m ASL and it get often very low temperatures and like frost hollow area because it tell when you drive from West Ewell to Redhill it go uphill all the way to A217 then go higher up to Kingswood then deep drive back down hill to Redhill after M25 J8. Stupid MetO removed the station bcause it was interesting station that time.  I often reach -10C most winters even mild winters from a northerly or a frosty spell.  Nowadays it not much low in Nuneaton which is higher up over 130m my home now so no frost hollow.  -4C in here this morning but did managed to get to -10C on snow surface temps back in Jan 2021 at Galley common after the 24th snowfall event.

If we were get snow here as predicted before and then clear tonight I would able to record -10 to -15C on the snow surface instead of grass min and air temps perhaps -8C to -10C.  That what i am after snow then very cold night afterwards but this spell not offering anything so far.

Just for the record Epsom lowest record is -24C back sometime in 19th Centery and 35C in Sept 1911.  They been shut down by MetO and deleted the record both due to interesting figues just like Redhill.    Perhaps Redhill had reached -25C or so same time?

 
Rob K
08 December 2022 21:41:26
Benson below -7C again already. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Essan
08 December 2022 21:51:11
-6.3c this morning

-6.4c this evening

Record temp for year broken twice in a day, here.
Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Rob K
08 December 2022 23:34:22
On these cold nights the temperature often seems to dip rapidly soon after sunset but then start rising again by about 8pm. Presumably some sort of mixing going on?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
picturesareme
09 December 2022 02:15:56
-4.5C 
Jiries
09 December 2022 05:27:04

On these cold nights the temperature often seems to dip rapidly soon after sunset but then start rising again by about 8pm. Presumably some sort of mixing going on?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Cloud that not produces snow give rise on temps to freezing and melting frost after at -3 before I went to bed.  Very boring and the sooner this faux cold end the better is.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 December 2022 07:11:31
-3.3 C - unusually low for Chichester, and doubly so as there is now cloud cover
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Rob K
09 December 2022 07:32:36

Cloud that not produces snow give rise on temps to freezing and melting frost after at -3 before I went to bed.  Very boring and the sooner this faux cold end the better is.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


It happens even with no cloud. 

Having said that the cloud did arrive here overnight and pushed the temperatures up from -6 to -2. 

Impressive low of -9.0C at Benson last night. I don’t think we have yet had any double figure minima this season?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
10 December 2022 19:00:53
Leaving my in-laws in the Test Valley the temperature on the car was already reading -4C before 5.30pm this evening. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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